Last month

Future Expansion post jackjumpers

Any talk around who's the favourite to be the next 2 franchises after the jackjumpers? I’m guessing the ideal number is 12 NBL teams. I’d like to see a team in Wellington, Canberra and maybe the Gold Coast.

Thoughts ?.

Topic #48007 | Report this topic

Last month

Within 10 years

More than a decade for any of these teams
Vic 3 Geelong
Nsw 3 Newcastle
Qld 3 Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast or Townsville.
Nz 3 Christchurch or another South Island region side.

Reply #829079 | Report this post

Last month

I'm hoping we add another team every 2 years, lots of cash coming from ex NBA and current NBA players wanting to own our franchises.

Reply #829091 | Report this post

Last month

The depth in talent is not yet there and we have a lot of older vets to push out.
We are likely to see 10 teams atleast until 2025. Canberra and Wellington between 2026-32 imo

Reply #829100 | Report this post

Last month

We're already into uneven fixtures, so there's no reason it has to be even numbers.
Theoretically A league of upto 16 would be feasible, so it comes down to the viability of individual franchises.

Any franchise needs a decent venue, strong community support, and hefty financial backing.

I could see the possibility of team(s) based in Wellington and/or Christchurch.
There will always be talk of Newcastle re-entering the league.
Same for Canberra.
From time to time there is talk of another WA team, including rumours that the Dockers were interested in an NBL franchise.

Reply #829103 | Report this post

Last month

Canberra is the go, arena already is 5000 capacity that with little effort can be boosted further.
Anytime nbl is played there, crowds are usually 3800+. A home team could fill the stadium.

Reply #829105 | Report this post

Last month

Maybe lk will buy the Aus arena cheap, a new rd link to highway, more car space, seating upgrade. A lot cheaper than Derwent.

Reply #829108 | Report this post

Last month

Many factors would go into it: market size (population/sports appetite/competition), infrastructure, commercial opportunities/sponsors, travel, willing ownership/investors

To those ends, I think Wellington and a North/West Melbourne are next and IMO final spots to make it a 12 team comp.

Any more and you risk not dilution of talent to a level where it starts to become poor and hinder on all the pluses that come with a league of deep teams. Also risks fracturing membership bases and crowd numbers.

NW Melbourne would aim to play at Melbourne Arena/John Cain Arena. Generally, that precinct offers three good sized stadiums between MCA, JC Arena and Rodlaver Arena. No reason to need them playing suburban. If they do - No reason they couldn't spread from the north west extending to Geelong. Victoria could sustain three clubs.

Wellington - NZers rockup at a decent rate per population for sports, similar to Cairns style whilst having significant commercial opportunities between Auckland and Wellington centres - all the big companies are there. Add in the ability to have a cross-country rival, that could stir more interest from kiwis into the league opposed to fracturing the membership based.

Canberra despite bigger population than Wellington, I don’t believe could sustain a club as well as Wellington. As a general proposition, any club in the NBL, perhaps except Cairns and Hawks, need to have infra capable of housing a crowd of 8-10k. I don’t believe 4-5k cuts it, particularly once you are established (give SEM some time)

6-9k needs to be a figure for NBL clubs to consistently average, and capably hold each game.

Reply #829109 | Report this post

Last month

*The talent-drain arguement has 3 weaknesses, IMO.

1. We are not talking next week. we are talking over next several years. Anyone brave enough to state that our current 10 to 16 year-olds will NOT be good enough to bolster those talented numbers by then?

2. Ignoring the fact that basketball is once again on the incline, numbers will naturally increase and with that, the number of talented players.

3. As our league grows and improves even further, and playing contracts catch up with Europe, more of our exports will stick around. Bring back half of our players in Europe currently and you've got the core of maybe 2 more NBL teams. Similarly with retiring NBA Aussies. Delly, Patty, Baynes, Jingles, following in Bogues footsteps. There's another couple of teams, if wanted, or stronger teams if not.

*On location aspects, my thoughts are:

That Perth are the number 1 option from the leagues point of view. Incredibly successful on and off the court in just about every dimension you care to consider. Their fan-base, if halved, would still represent a better than average sized club but no way would it be halved. Lets say that 90% stick with the 'Cats and 10% want to change club allegience for whatever reason. That's approx 1500 (I am guessing at 15,000 members, at least??) NBL-savvy fans and then the ones you would normally want to attract to your club a-la SEM in Melb. For their population base their support of sport, is second only to Melbourne, especially when at least one of the contestants are from the west. WA are represented and well supported in nearly every national league, mens and womens. And, although I am not knowledgeable about the WA state league comp, NBL1 West, I believe that they pay their players well which should mean a decent (at least) standard for their 2nd league. Perth fans, in general, should learn to love the cross-city rivalry.
I really don't see Perth Wildcats being over the moon with the prospect. If it was to happen, it would undoubtedly have a somewhat negative effect on them.

Wellington and Newcastle would share my 2nd & 3rd choices(order?). Wellington for mostly the same reasoning as Perth (Fremantle, in fact) but to lesser extent. Newcastle cos it seems to be very active in their local scene. It seems that they want it, and that has to be big deal, are already upping their facilities and seem to be spruiking a bit about it.

Canberra, Townsville, Gold Coast already had a chance or 2 already and shown not up to it then, why would they now? Have things changed? My inclusion of Newcastle, who have also had a go before, HAS seen changes (as stated).

Reply #829116 | Report this post

Last month

Didn't take long for the "talent pool" issue to be raised.

Reply #829117 | Report this post

Last month

So I'll bite, we know the history of Townsville and how they came into the league with massive fan support and sell out crowds and died in a whimper with car parking issues and very poor scheduling for those travelling to the game.

Maybe just maybe if LK gets the same DEC deal up in Townsville where he can create the infrastructure himself and multiple revenue sources then would he risk bringing back the mighty Crocodiles or are they a shot duck?

Obviously I'd favour Canberra, Newcastle and Geelong as I don't feel like they steal fans from other clubs and NZ teams I'll leave for others to decide the fate on.

As for NWM, I love the idea of reintroducing the Giants and the St.Kilda Saints became the Westside Saints (before they become the southern Melbourne Saints) so maybe you can display some championship banners and retire a number or two such as D-Mac #10 and really push out into the community. Does anyone want to see the ugly maroon and orange or the teal return for this team?

Reply #829118 | Report this post

Last month

North Division
Gold Coast

Central Division

South Division
SE Melbourne
3rd Victorian team

West Division
West Adelaide

East Division
2nd NZ team
3rd NZ team
4th NZ team

20 teams comp,play own division teams 4 times, other teams 2 times = 44 games each.

8 team playoffs (top seeds guaranteed berth, but ranked by record along with next highest 3 teams). 1v8, 2v7, 3v6, 4v5. Quarter Finals, Semi Finals and Grand Final all best of 5.

Come at me!

Reply #829119 | Report this post

Last month

There are players in the league getting a game that shouldn't. So until that's no longer the case I dont really think we need to expand, unless we also open up import restrictions. Certainly there are some talented young players coming in but there is also a lot of scrubs who clock minutes.

Reply #829121 | Report this post

Last month

If everything went like clockwork you could have 22 teams by 2050.

Current - 10 teams 2021/2022
Adelaide 36ers, Auckland Breakers(name change), Brisbane Bullets, Cairns Taipans, Illawarra Hawks, Melbourne United, Perth Wildcats, South East Melbourne Phoenix, Sydney Kings, Tasmania Jack Jumpers

Expansion 1 - 2024/2025
Wellington Saints, Canberra Cannons (12 team competition)

Expansion 2 - 2029/2030
Geelong ?, Newcastle Hunters (14 team competition)

Expansion 3 - 2034/2035
Gold Coast?, Christchurch Rams (16 team competition)

Expansion 5 - 2039/2040
Townsville Crocodiles, NZ 4 (18 team competition)

Expansion 6 - 2044/2045
Western Sydney, Sunshine Coast (20 team competition)

Expansion 7 - 2049/2050
Darwin, Bendigo (22 team competition)

5 qld
4 vic
4 nsw
4 nz
1 tas
1 wa
1 sa
1 act
1 nt

Reply #829124 | Report this post

Last month

I liked the Titans colours!

Can't have Melbourne United in that charcoal gray/navy navy navy blue/black and white and another vic team with teal black and white sadly.

I wouldn’t want to splinter the wildcats base

Reply #829125 | Report this post

Last month

"Canberra is the go" You can't be serious they couldn't win a game in the SEABL and no one attended.

Reply #829134 | Report this post

Last month

Wellington were locked and loaded a few seasons ago but couldn't come to an agreement with the nbl. Actually similar to the Ball bid last season. I’d prefer the second NZ team out Christchurch on the South Island.
Personally I’d let 10 teams settle for a few years, though 12 teams would be ideal with two rounds home and away so the draw is even and then play a massive final series of best of five for top six teams.

Reply #829135 | Report this post

Last month

Bendigo. End thread.

Reply #829140 | Report this post

Last month

It's hard to see many Wildcats fans wanting to jump ship. There is just too much history, success and community connection in Perth for Wildcats members/fans to suddenly move to another team.

There are a lot of basketball fans though in Perth that don't follow NBL or Wildcats too closely, they would need to be the target.

To sway them though to suddenly pay attention to the NBL you'd probably need their founding roster to contain 1x Aussie Star returning home from the NBA, and for 1-2 of their imports to be former NBA guys they might have heard of or a hyped up Hanpton/Melo type next star.

Reply #829142 | Report this post

Last month

My Perth bid should really have focused much more on Fremantle than Perth. Perth is sown up. And deservedly so. I honestly congratulate where Perth have taken there organization and really can't see why Freeo would not want the same. Just about an hour separates them. That's far enough for rivalry and close enough for support when not playing against Perth.

Reply #829173 | Report this post

Last month

Canberra is the go...unless you've lived there for a prolonged period and have an understanding of their history and how BACT operates. It’s an absolute cluster puck. People need to move on from the idea that it would be viable in the next ten years.

Reply #829177 | Report this post

Last month

Can people who have no idea about Perth stop proposing a second team here? It's not happening.

Reply #829179 | Report this post

Last month

A third team in Melbourne is an absurd idea, and would inevitably lead to the bad old days of clubs merging and folding.

If fans can't get behind one of the two teams, then they miss out.

Reply #829180 | Report this post

Last month

let's get Freo in just to give the Perth fans some rivalry. Works in the AFl go for it.

Reply #829182 | Report this post

Last month

As for a Freo team, I'd say the following:

Obviously any expansion is going to be post covid when things are back to normal.

I watched the Eagles in the early 90's (including 3 GFs and 2 flags) with blokes who will now swear on their mother's grave that they did not support an AFL team prior to the entry of the Dockers.

The Dockers (or whomever) would do the same thing that happened with AFL, offering reasonably priced family memberships, with decent seats, to fans who were stuck on the Eagles' waiting list.

I'm not interested, we have decent seats and my kids are grown, but I wouldn't want to be trying to get a membership now.

There would also be economies of scale, playing multiple games at the Arena without reconfiguring, and potentially saving on airfares

I don't know how much real interest there is, it's only ever rumours and idle chatter. I'm not convinced that "Freo" is the natural home for a new team. However the supposed rumour regarding the Dockers was some idea of growing the mutual membership.

Reply #829183 | Report this post

Last month

There is no future expansion after Hobart.

All major media markets are covered. Keeping ten teams stable for a long time is the key.

Reply #829193 | Report this post

Last month

With the shutting of ais arena and the Wellington new stadium that was scrapped, it's unlikely we will see new teams for another 6 years atleast.

Reply #829194 | Report this post

Last month

Shit I will be early 70s by the time Darwin joins in 2049.

Reply #829195 | Report this post

Last month

Be great to see perth get some "home cooking" for a change.

Reply #829196 | Report this post

Last month

How can you say the depth is bad because players are in the league who shouldn't be? The only way you can say someone shouldn't be in the league is if there's a better player who isn't, but that's a selection issue not a depth issue. Somebody is going to be the worst player in the league no matter how many teams there are.

I would wager most Wildcats fans aren't basketball fans who follow the Wildcats because they're the local basketball team, they're Wildcats fans who follow basketball because that's the sport the Wildcats play.

Fremantle had an "in" in the AFL due to the pre-existing dynamics in the WAFL, no such pre-built fanbase/rivalry exists in basketball.

As for offering tickets to those on the Wildcats' waiting list...they don't have a waiting list.

Reply #829210 | Report this post

Last month

Freo NBL team? NO WAY!

I am a Dockers supporter and strong loyal Wildcats member. I would not welcome a new team from WA. I love the fact we can come together and show sportsmanship and friendliness to each other. I can not get that from going to the football in WA. The rivalry with the WA footy teams isn't rivalry, it's pure hate. I have done as much as i can to distance myself from it. Going to the basketball here in Perth is so much fun and very relaxing. I strongly feel a 2nd team would change all that.

I would think Wellington would be the front runner to be up next anyway. A 2nd team from Perth looks a long long way off realistically.

Reply #829217 | Report this post

Last month

How's that Cotton naturalisation going... hahahaha

Reply #829220 | Report this post

Last month

^ how many championships has your favorite nbl team won? Hahahaha

Reply #829245 | Report this post

Last month

"As for offering tickets to those on the Wildcats' waiting list...they don't have a waiting list."

Obviously, I never said they did. I quite clearly said "Eagles", but I can see how you would get the two confused.

And for the record, they do have waiting lists, several in fact.
Covid aside, there are people waiting for blocks to become available, people waiting to move to better seats, etc, etc.

Point is that, as I said, any new team would pursue the same strategy. Post Covid, and assuming the whole thing hasn't gone to shit, if you want a reasonably priced family package to the Wildcats, then you're looking at "Bronze", which require binoculars, an oxygen mask, and something for the nosebleeds.
Any new team would be in the same position we were in when moving to the arena, with people able to get in and secure great seats at a reasonable price.

It's also possible, given our huge expat population, that there exists a tappable market amongst those who don't support the Wildcats.

As for it being a "Freo" team, as I said, I'm not aware of any great natural impetus for that. Other than the rumour that the Dockers were exploring the opportunity.
And I suppose, if you had a Billionaire looking to establish a new team, without any pre-existing affiliation, then it makes as much sense as anything else.

Which really is the ultimate point. Any expansion will require somebody with deep pockets to make it happen. Either an individual, group, or organisation.
IF that happens, they can call the team whatever they want.

Reply #829248 | Report this post

Last month

Obviously, I never said they did. I quite clearly said "Eagles", but I can see how you would get the two confused.
You said a new NBL team should try the same strategy. Unless you literally meant a new NBL team should target people on the Eagles' waiting list, I guess, but that makes no sense either.

Reply #829271 | Report this post

Last month

Did everyone forget something about further expansion?

Corporate dollars and an owner with deep pockets?

You can get the owner side with dumb NBA player investments. But corporate dollars. Businesses want ROI.

Reply #829272 | Report this post

Last month

" Did everyone forget something about further expansion?

Corporate dollars and an owner with deep pockets"

“ Many factors would go into it: market size (population/sports appetite/competition), infrastructure, commercial opportunities/sponsors, travel, willing ownership/investors”

Not everyone...

Reply #829280 | Report this post

Last month

Why are so many people so determined to have so many teams?

Some of the ridiculous expansion ideas here are laughable.

Reply #829281 | Report this post

Last month

12 is the ideal number IMO with some sort of configuration for a top 6 finals.

The trouble with not many teams is you play against the same ones over and over. This year covid has ensured that as well; but previous years we saw almost back to back games teams had against each other. A bit of variety is great.

Beyond 12 I think is unnecessary and becoming too bloated particularly for the NBL.

Reply #829287 | Report this post

Last month

Geelong will be the next vic team imo
Population of around 300,000 and one of the states biggest growth areas.



Reply #829288 | Report this post

Last month

For umpteen years Geelong has always said they aren't interested in getting back into the NBL. Has anything changed?

Reply #829291 | Report this post

Last month

Well if your looking at the QLD market, I believe you need a 3rd team eventually, Gold Coast is the obvious choice , it's the 6th largest city in Australia and will be pushing a million people in the region within the next 10 years. But in saying that, Gold Coast has always been a difficult market to stick in, you will need resilient owners.

You also have the crocs in Townsville, it’s the capital of North Queensland, it’s got the new rugby league stadium and if they had a purpose built stadium close to that, it might take off again.

You also have Moreton bay north of Brisbane, which will most likely be home to the next expansion rugby league team, they are pridicting over a million people to be in Moreton bay by 2035. Boondall is rather close to the Moreton bay border , maybe with upgrades ? Or a purpose built stadium around north lakes.

Reply #829293 | Report this post

Last month

I can't envision another SEQ team in the immediate future, with infrastructure issues a problem, as discussed on another thread. The Gold Coast has great venues in the Convention Centre and Indoor Sports Centre but in a city where even NRL and AFL struggle for continued viability and bodies, you'd have to wonder if it is worth the risk.

If Townsville's economic recovery commences/continues and the logistical issues around TEC are resolved, the Crocs could be revived. Could be wishful thinking however, always a gamble placing a new franchise in an area with sub 250k populus. They were a model franchise once upon a time and the local association and WNBL team are still strongly supported, with a ready made rivalry with the Taipans beckoning.

Reply #829332 | Report this post

Last month

Townsville or Sunshine Coast before gc

Reply #829333 | Report this post

Last month

Let's make sure the current 10 teams including Tasmania are sustainable before we even entertain expansion thoughts.
A second NZ based team might be next in line.

Reply #829436 | Report this post

Last month

2nd NZ team absolutely makes sense in terms of depth as there will be several D1 players graduating in each of the upcoming years.
The cross country concept is also attractive with the sport popularity across the country and it is still catching up the trend.
And I wish club financial can be feasible in a creative format if the previous proposal is not working in the current league standard.

Reply #829439 | Report this post

Last month

Dazz once again proving that reading comprehension is not a strong point.

Reply #829440 | Report this post

Two weeks ago

We might see double expansion in nz before another Aus team.

Wellington and a South Island side, Christchurch or Southland sharks.

Reply #832300 | Report this post


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