Oh how awesome another Throwup. Surely this attracts a decent crowd in Melbourne for once?

The regular season games would be fine, as the membership base is, you know, over 10,000 with no freebies. No benefit of having derbies either yet every full capacity game does five figures.

I merely explained to you why your assertion that Wildcats crowds would be lowered by a Perth-hosted NBL Cup, like they did in Melbourne to United, is obviously wrong.

I wouldn't mind having NBL cup in Perth next time. Perth as an organisation only serve themselves in terms of the overall national Basketball fraternity. Everybody knows the east coast of this country is responsible for developing the best and most successful Australian basketball talent and it's not even close!
What are the wildcats amazing at?
A. Recruiting mercenary imports and implementing hand checking as their ideology on defense.

One time ago - if the ball went in and rolled out - it was one (1) point.

Unsurprising

SEM were very juicy odds for this game.

Some people talking like it's a top 2 then the rest this season, and already talking about a United v Perth final.

Uhuh, with SEM now having most of their team on floor, it's the big 3 then the rest.

Anyone know what Goulding did to his arm?

Attendance: 3,460

Where is everyone?

Spectators were asking the same question at the stadium today.

If you look at H2H matchups between the top 3, there hasn't been much between them this season. All 3 series have been very close.

Given SEM presumably has more upside now with Sykes and Broekhoff back and no longer any shadows hanging over Creek's head, this makes them a very serious championship chance. The fans and the bookies suggest its bound to be United vs Perth but I just cannot see why.

Yep, and this is why I still rate United and Perth slightly ahead of SEM.

But the odds are:

United $2.30
Perth $2.80
SEM $6.50

I'm suggesting a more reasonable representation of each team's chances (in my view at least) might be something like

United $2.50
Perth $3.20
SEM $4.50

or something like that.

You're not better at handicapping than the bookmakers.

You're not better than the bookmakers at handicapping.

My Sportsbet history suggests otherwise

(I bet very occasionally, and when doing so rarely more than $20 at a time. Gamble responsibly and all that)

But, long term I'm ahead.

$6.50 is a massive bargain for this SEM group.

Check out their record with

- Creek playing

- Sykes and Broekhoff both fit and playing > 10 min

I bet very occasionally, and when doing so rarely more than $20 at a time.

[So you lack a sufficient sample size. Don't quit your day job.]

I've had my Sportsbet account for maybe 8 years or more, and have placed many bets in that time. I don't know an exact figure but I'd guess I've placed over 100 bets. Maybe 200. I don't know.

And I'm ahead.

So I'll back myself every time.

But, I live by the rule that I never gamble what I'm not prepared to lose. Hence usually betting $10 or $20 and doing it very rarely.

It's not for money, it's to test whether I know what I'm talking about.

And if I know anything, $6.50 is value for SEM.

Hence a massive outlay of $20! And a $15 hedge on United so I get my $$ back if United wins.

I'll lose $35 if Perth or anyone else wins, but given I've already made profit on NBL this season on my small number of NBL bets, and should make profits on AFL too, I won't mind if I lose $35.

[Check out their finals record.]

This is a bit overrated in this case.

Everyone knows Perth is a finals team, and it's already built into their $2.80 odds.

If the odds were based purely on the regular season, United would be a heavier favourite since they've been almost unbeatable when they've had their team on the floor. And SEM has looked very promising in the small number of games where they've been healthy, so they'd be less than $6.50.

This is the X Factor, we're comparing one team who's remained healthy with two others who have faced constant disruptions.

But everyone knows Perth is a finals team, and they have huge home court advantage so that's why they're $2.80 despite having lost 8 games with a healthy group.

But given both United and SEM have won in Perth this season and both are full of experienced players, I think both are quite capable of beating Perth in playoffs.

[Firstly, someone who hedges their bets to cover their losses on the same game or season isnt some mastermind gambler. It's juat dumb]

Why?

The thing is, hedging isn't really a separate entity.

It just changes the payoff matrix related to a specific event (Championship, top 8 position, etc).

Thinking of it as a separate "thing" is a mistake. It's an inaccurate way to think about betting.

Haha Karl Beston seems to be suggesting in Twitter that Melbourne deliberately rolled over yesterday. No idea why they would do that.

By losing, United have now given Perth control over our own destiny. Win our remaining games and we finish #1. That's unlikely of course, but not inconceivable.
If SEM are so scary to them, you'd think they would back them to finish #3 on their own merits. I certainly do.

I'm here for any gamesmanship though. When you're at the top of the standings you have the right to play with your buffer as you see fit. I doubt United are doing that this far from the finish line though.

There is merit in this thought bubble.

MEL do not want to play SEM in the SF, they want PER to.

There's a chance June 4 at RAC Arena decides top spot.

That would be something!