Jack Toft
Last month

MEL v SEM May 16

Melbourne took to Perf like a fat kid to a smorgasbord gorging themselves on the carcass of the floppycats. SEM broke the Breakers, smashed the Snakes like guitars and tonight it's the Melbourne Throwdown so will there be a feast, or a paddling?

Melbourne are opening up a gap between 1 and 2 and playing like they want to be a grand finalist. Hutchy will be happy. Phoenix with Sykes look a different team so with both teams fuelled up on organic soy lattes, look like this might be a game to watch.

But Melbourne are Sunday Warriors so despite their best efforts, the Green Machine might be happy with an honourable loss.

Topic #48502 | Report this topic


Perthworld  
Last month

Oh how awesome another Throwup. Surely this attracts a decent crowd in Melbourne for once?

Reply #848243 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Last month

I wouldn't be suprised with another poor crowd.
AFL game at 1:10pm at Marvel (ESS v FREO)
NBL game at 3pm at JCA
AFL game at 3:20pm at MCG (MEL v CARL)
NRL game at 5.05pm at AAMI park (STORM v DRAGONS)

Reply #848287 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Last month

Perthworld doesn't know that Melb had the NBL Cup there? Perhaps next season they can hold it in Perth. See what that does to the locals there turning up.

Reply #848289 | Report this post


Perthworld  
Last month

The regular season games would be fine, as the membership base is, you know, over 10,000 with no freebies. No benefit of having derbies either yet every full capacity game does five figures.

Reply #848299 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Last month

Perth never hold 2 AFL games at the same time as a NBL game and never will. I'm not going today as I'd much rather watch the game in comfort in front of the open fire. Stadium was bloody cold on Friday night

Reply #848305 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Last month

Oh how awesome, another negligent perfwerld comment. MU will have done what they can to have sold out this game - but between NBL Cup, COVID, competing winter codes, and the fact there was a Throwdown LAST WEEKEND where Phoenix had 3.8k fans in the building with all tickets being sold for $10... if there are more fans (at full price, as no discount has been offered) in the building than last week, that is a significant success for United.

Reply #848309 | Report this post


Perthworld  
Last month

I merely explained to you why your assertion that Wildcats crowds would be lowered by a Perth-hosted NBL Cup, like they did in Melbourne to United, is obviously wrong.

Reply #848310 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Last month

How can a comment be negligent?

Reply #848311 | Report this post


Ortiz  
Last month

I wouldn't mind having NBL cup in Perth next time. Perth as an organisation only serve themselves in terms of the overall national Basketball fraternity. Everybody knows the east coast of this country is responsible for developing the best and most successful Australian basketball talent and it's not even close!
What are the wildcats amazing at?
A. Recruiting mercenary imports and implementing hand checking as their ideology on defense.

Reply #848320 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Last month

Longley, Vlahov might think otherwise

Reply #848322 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Last month

What the hell is Ortiz talking about?

Reply #848324 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Last month

No one at the game and no one in this thread. Do these teams have any fans?

Reply #848327 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Last month

Yep. They don't have any fans because they aren't commenting on a forum during the game.

Such a moronic comment. Most people on this forum are actually from SA or WA.

Reply #848330 | Report this post


Camel 31  
Last month

One time ago - if the ball went in and rolled out - it was one (1) point.

Reply #848332 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Last month

Who knew united hot shooting the other night may have been an outlier

Reply #848333 | Report this post


LV  
Last month

Unsurprising

SEM were very juicy odds for this game.

Some people talking like it's a top 2 then the rest this season, and already talking about a United v Perth final.

Uhuh, with SEM now having most of their team on floor, it's the big 3 then the rest.

Reply #848338 | Report this post


Kas  
Last month

Anyone know what Goulding did to his arm?

Reply #848339 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Last month

He got bumped setting a screen and must have copped a stinger. Didn't seem to be much in it at the time.

Reply #848340 | Report this post


Perthworld  
Last month

Attendance: 3,460

Reply #848366 | Report this post


Bol  
Last month

Where is everyone?

Reply #848369 | Report this post


Perthworld  
Last month

Spectators were asking the same question at the stadium today.

Reply #848370 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Last month

United really missed Baba's defensive pressure he usually puts on the opposing teams biggest perimeter threat - in this case Sykes.

Reply #848372 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Last month

Illi & McDaniels say hello.

Reply #848383 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Last month

Haha Karl Beston seems to be suggesting in Twitter that Melbourne deliberately rolled over yesterday. No idea why they would do that.

Reply #848386 | Report this post


LV  
Last month

If you look at H2H matchups between the top 3, there hasn't been much between them this season. All 3 series have been very close.

Given SEM presumably has more upside now with Sykes and Broekhoff back and no longer any shadows hanging over Creek's head, this makes them a very serious championship chance. The fans and the bookies suggest its bound to be United vs Perth but I just cannot see why.

Reply #848388 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Last month

Because the core of the the United and Perth teams have been in place longer than SEM, and they have finals experience

Reply #848390 | Report this post


LV  
Last month

Yep, and this is why I still rate United and Perth slightly ahead of SEM.

But the odds are:

United $2.30
Perth $2.80
SEM $6.50

I'm suggesting a more reasonable representation of each team's chances (in my view at least) might be something like

United $2.50
Perth $3.20
SEM $4.50

or something like that.

Reply #848394 | Report this post


Perthworld  
Last month

You're not better at handicapping than the bookmakers.

Reply #848395 | Report this post


Perthworld  
Last month

You're not better than the bookmakers at handicapping.

Reply #848396 | Report this post


LV  
Last month

My Sportsbet history suggests otherwise

(I bet very occasionally, and when doing so rarely more than $20 at a time. Gamble responsibly and all that)

But, long term I'm ahead.

$6.50 is a massive bargain for this SEM group.

Check out their record with

- Creek playing

- Sykes and Broekhoff both fit and playing > 10 min

Reply #848397 | Report this post


Perthworld  
Last month

I bet very occasionally, and when doing so rarely more than $20 at a time.

So you lack a sufficient sample size. Don't quit your day job.

I'll stick to the professionals who frame markets for a living.

Reply #848401 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Last month

Check out their finals record.

Reply #848412 | Report this post


LV  
Last month

[So you lack a sufficient sample size. Don't quit your day job.]

I've had my Sportsbet account for maybe 8 years or more, and have placed many bets in that time. I don't know an exact figure but I'd guess I've placed over 100 bets. Maybe 200. I don't know.

And I'm ahead.

So I'll back myself every time.

But, I live by the rule that I never gamble what I'm not prepared to lose. Hence usually betting $10 or $20 and doing it very rarely.

It's not for money, it's to test whether I know what I'm talking about.

And if I know anything, $6.50 is value for SEM.

Hence a massive outlay of $20! And a $15 hedge on United so I get my $$ back if United wins.

I'll lose $35 if Perth or anyone else wins, but given I've already made profit on NBL this season on my small number of NBL bets, and should make profits on AFL too, I won't mind if I lose $35.



Reply #848428 | Report this post


LV  
Last month

[Check out their finals record.]

This is a bit overrated in this case.

Everyone knows Perth is a finals team, and it's already built into their $2.80 odds.

If the odds were based purely on the regular season, United would be a heavier favourite since they've been almost unbeatable when they've had their team on the floor. And SEM has looked very promising in the small number of games where they've been healthy, so they'd be less than $6.50.

This is the X Factor, we're comparing one team who's remained healthy with two others who have faced constant disruptions.

But everyone knows Perth is a finals team, and they have huge home court advantage so that's why they're $2.80 despite having lost 8 games with a healthy group.

But given both United and SEM have won in Perth this season and both are full of experienced players, I think both are quite capable of beating Perth in playoffs.

Reply #848431 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Last month

Firstly, someone who hedges their bets to cover their losses on the same game or season isnt some mastermind gambler. It's juat dumb. It's like saying you bet on both red and black at the casino and you beat the house every time!

Secondly, your betting record is in no way an indication that the bookies have got the odds wrong. There is no correlation whatsoever.

Perth has beaten both Melbourne and SEM in Melbourne this season and is full of experienced players so I think the can beat either team in the playoffs.

Reply #848437 | Report this post


LV  
Last month

[Firstly, someone who hedges their bets to cover their losses on the same game or season isnt some mastermind gambler. It's juat dumb]

Why?

Reply #848443 | Report this post


LV  
Last month

The thing is, hedging isn't really a separate entity.

It just changes the payoff matrix related to a specific event (Championship, top 8 position, etc).

Thinking of it as a separate "thing" is a mistake. It's an inaccurate way to think about betting.

Reply #848447 | Report this post


LoveBroker  
Last month

Haha Karl Beston seems to be suggesting in Twitter that Melbourne deliberately rolled over yesterday. No idea why they would do that.


There is merit in this thought bubble.

MEL do not want to play SEM in the SF, they want PER to.

Reply #848462 | Report this post


Luuuc  
Last month

By losing, United have now given Perth control over our own destiny. Win our remaining games and we finish #1. That's unlikely of course, but not inconceivable.
If SEM are so scary to them, you'd think they would back them to finish #3 on their own merits. I certainly do.

I'm here for any gamesmanship though. When you're at the top of the standings you have the right to play with your buffer as you see fit. I doubt United are doing that this far from the finish line though.

Reply #848465 | Report this post


koberulz  
Last month

There is merit in this thought bubble.

MEL do not want to play SEM in the SF, they want PER to.
The loss makes Melbourne more likely to finish second, and SEM more likely to finish third.

Reply #848469 | Report this post


LV  
Last month

There's a chance June 4 at RAC Arena decides top spot.

That would be something!

Reply #848474 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Last month

The game will be great just for the home cooking alone!

Reply #848479 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Last month

Mitchell resigns with SEM. So much for Shane Heal saying Goorj would be there next season.

Reply #849112 | Report this post




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