If we somehow manage to pull off an unlikely gold medal, we are likely to have gone 5-0 against the 7 quarter-final opponents (wins vs Italy, Germany, Argentina, USA, Slovenia/France). Bronze, 4/5 win/loss out of the 7. That'd be a thoroughly deserved medal in either case. We have to expect the tough teams will be on the road to a medal.
There's nothing wrong with the draw.Unless you're France.
If you want a medal you've got to beat someone pretty decent to get it
The top four teams are all on the same side of the draw. Two of the top four won't be in the medal games. A team outside the top four is guaranteed a medal.
There will be at least 1 surprise in the quarters. Maybe Italy beating France? Slovenia has looked very strong.
Actually it wouldn't shock me if Spain beat the USA. Spain are the real #2 team plus they're huge, the USA lost to a good team and have beaten up on mickey mouse teams, they're yet to win against a good team and Spain are as good as goes really.
All on same side.
Three of the top four from the World Cup plus USA.
On the other hand:
Three of the four qualifying at the last minute, not via World Cup or continental championships.
Yeah but Slovenia beat Spain. Like I get the rankings don't sound fair but if you flipped Slovenia and Spain in that list, everyone would whinge about the location of FIBA headquarters.
It's always possible that one day some inferior Boomers team will come along and get a lucky draw, play their best game at the right time, and win the medal this group could never luck their way into. But if this group are contenders, not just 'a chance,' they have to do it with the draw we've got. And I, for one, am thrilled that the Spain/USA crossover is a game later than it could have been.
I agree Spain are a real chance to knock off Team USA. The US were awful in the early going v Czech and I think will put too much stock in their big wins. Spain are just so much more able to exploit the trends of the FIBA game and I can see them frustrating the Americans.
I know, I know but there is a sense of urgency to get it done now with the group we've got because this window may be closing soon. We may go back to being a bottom top ten team soon and too mediocre to even take advantage of a future dream fixture. Argh, it's a mindfuck supporting the Boomers in their quest for medal.
I am thankful for small mercies, we got Argentina in a crossover. It's a game we should win unless we shit the bed. That means a placing in the top four is more likely than not.
Then once you're in the top four, you have to pull a little bit of an upset. I don't think we know what this Boomers team is capable of yet because we haven't seen it faced with another top 5 team. I have a feeling we will play up to, or down to, our competition as we did in the world cup.
I don't think USA beating Spain is a given. They've played better recently, but against teams like Iran and the Czech Republic. They're yet to be tested in the way Spain and potentially Australia might test them. They're clearly gold medal favourites but they've had enough growing pains and internal issues for me to see signs of vulnerability.
I assume we make the top four, but once there we're probably not in the three favourites to medal. That might even be to our benefit. It might spark that Australian underdog spirit. That might not get us past the US but might get us past France or Slovenia in a bronze medal game. The medals are all up for grabs. We're in the hunt. But I'd want to see improvement on what we've shown so far before I have any confidence that we take one.
If USA had really good bigs Spain would be toast. Spain's big men (Gasol x 2 and hermangomez) are too slow and unatheltic. But they don't so thats a push.
Spain has competent guards and mobile tall small forwards to match up (as best as you can) against the USA.
Spain lives and dies on the play of Rubio. They look average when he's off the court. If he plays and shoots well, I wouldnt be surprised if they win.
I think its 55-45 in favour of USA, but that's the beauty of knockout.
You know FIBA wants Doncic to be prominent in the medal round, so I hope we dont get them in the event we match up for the bronze, becauses if you thought it was rough versus spain in 2016....
If we're assuming FIBA's loyalties, and if they care about storylines, Australia getting some help against an old and slightly boring Spain or the USA to create a bit of drama in a semi wouldn't shock me.
I think the thing that is promising for the Boomers (or at least causes me less worry) is that Slovenia is a team comparable in size to Australia, and yet they just handed Spain a glorious L. It says to me that our lack of size doesn't have to be a determining factor in the way these following games go ahead, especially if, say, Spain does beat the USA.
The other promising thing for the Boomers is we don't appear to have 'clicked' yet. It all seems clunky and disjointed. We will elevate by a reasonable amount the minute that the team actually discovers its identity.
I look forward to seeing the team put it all on the line, and hopefully they walk away with something around their necks. Lord knows the program has deserved it.
Well I think they potentially can. The Boomers were basically without Baynes in the warm up that they knocked them out in. And yeah, it's a warm up. Can't take too much out of it. But we've actually had two in a row against Popovich-run USA teams now. Size again shouldn't be a determining factor in that match up. USA may look a lot better now, but they've only beaten garbage teams. It wouldn't be the greatest shock in the world now if Australia did beat USA in the semis, as much as they wouldn't be favourites to do so.
What I am looking for from the Boomers right now is the turning point game. I think we've trucked along generally fine til this point, and won ugly, but in 2019, there was a game against Lithuania where suddenly it all just clicked. I think it was the third or fourth game of the tournament, and the energy was right, the ball movement was crisp, the rotations were on point, and we ended up taking down a pretty good Lithuanian team. Before that game we looked unconvincing against Canada, we were really troubled by Senegal and we looked out of sorts against Dominican Republic, despite taking Ws in all those games. I hope we're finding ourselves in a similar place before Argentina, and that this is the moment right before the pieces fall into place.
I would've rather drawn Spain for the QF but avoided USA in the semi, rather than Argentina then have to play USA. Our medal chances would've been better.
I've watched Spain's last 2 games, they've aged a little. Not quite the same team they once were. USA will beat them easily.
I would've liked our chances against Spain but now we've got the toughest matchup in the semi.
Sucks we get the hard side of the draw but that's life. Argentina is alright but we just need to lockdown their main players. Then the Boomers will be alright.
Boomers can beat the USA. I believe in them. Sucks we didn’t get the 6:20 time slot though.
France did not have a good draw, as they were in the US group, which made it unlikely they'd be a top seed for the quarters draw. But they beat the US and earned their chance at a better draw for the knock-out stage. Nothing scandalous or rigged about that.
Slovenia have shown they are a top team too.
Argentina look past it, but can’t be discounted in a knock-out game.
Spain isn't the team we are scared of anymore - the team that knocked us out twice were at their end of life and right bore at the very end of life.
France gets a walk through to silver by the looks.
We have to get through the Args and Luka for that precious bronze medal
"We have more chance v Spain or USA than Slovenia or France atm.
France have the bigs
Slovenia have the cohesiveness plus doncic.
Spain are getting very old and slow.
USA have not played well together and lackmsize."
I totally agree with this. I don't see the scare factor in the USA in a semi anymore. We got the absolute best possible draw with Argentina, meaning we're not (necessarily) walking into a game we're not favoured in for the knock out. All of our up and coming match ups we've either proven we can beat (USA in exhibitions, Argentina just not that great) or we've been knocking on that door (Spain). The USA has done nothing at all impressive at the Olympics yet other than smashing teams we'd also smash. I think people are starting to get a bit dizzy over names on jerseys again and are forgetting just what kind of form the team is actually in against the better teamns.
Also, in the course of the tournament it has all been relatively fair. There is no 'free ride' for France. They had to beat USA to be here and we're assuming they beat Slovenia. The problem is people assume that because a team isn't a traditional power (Slovenia for instance) that they're not as tough as a Spain. Slovenia just beat Spain! If we want to talk about who is short changed it would have to be both Spain and USA who are right at the top of the world basketball mountain yet are expected to end one-another before the medal rounds.
Anyway enough whinging about the draw. The Boomers have been carolling on about gold medals since the start. I doubt they expected to achieve that without crossing one of the USA or Spain. We lost Baynes. I get that. But we're not being hit with teams with a notable advantage in the post. I think this team needs to elevate over the next few games to get it done but I have no doubt that they at least have the self belief to do that. I certainly wouldn't want them to be ruminating over possibly meeting a team they've actually outperformed over recent tournaments. Let the media do the catastrophizing on that. As far as I am concerned, our draw is fair and just. We are two wins away from a medal. One win is expected to be somewhat in the bank. That should be the motivation moving forward. There's no victims in this draw unless people want to pretend Slovenia and France aren't genuinely top teams because of world rank or something.
re; "Slovenia have the cohesiveness plus doncic."
IMO, Slovenia showed little cohesiveness without Doncic. He gets 3 early fouls, sits, while Spain controls the game, Comes back and gets his team up for the win. The key may just be to get him into foul trouble too.
Even with the 3 early ones, I saw what looked like another offensive foul by him and later, he went flying through key-way, kicked out the pass, and very nearly crashed into a baseline player as well. Could have easily been 5 fouls (would that have been the 1st-ever, 5-OFFENSIVE-foul-out count?). He doesn't seem to have control over his forceful drives.
Then, the celebrations for the W showed me that they they really worked hard it. Not like they were saving their best for us or anyone else.
Good as they are, their reliance on Doncic is tantamount. Much like Spain with Rubio and us too, with Patty, but much more so. Thankfully, Patty isn't foul-prone. Hopefully, Rubio learns to be (foul-prone), if we do meet.
"All they have to do is try and they win easy"
They weren't trying against France? Not trying in lead up games? Trying is one thing. Doesn't mean suddenly their team is going to work well as a team.
Anyway we get to see them against Spain tomorrow. That should show us whether or not they're this all conquering team or if they still have a lot of work to do. All I know is I am not so quick to assume they win gold.
I agree with RobT, Slovenia aren't very good at all, the fact they have the best player at the Olympics is what is getting them over the line. There game is jack 3's when Luka is off the court. They had to play out of their skin to get that win from Spain who looked like they were running in 2nd gear.
Just reveing the high level commentary from overnight, reading through it all I've learnt:
Slovenia, while Euro champs and having defeated the world champs, are actually no good at all
The USA are also no good
Spain are no good as well
Argentina are clearly no good, virtually a bye for us in the QF that we desperately wanted but FIBA were never going to give us
THE QF final was always going to be rigged by FIFA and was
FIBA are against us shown by how they help out Spain always hang on France hang on Europe always and always give us the hardest QF hang on SF hang on pathway to gold against all the hardest teams hang on against Argentina and Spain/USA and Slovenia who are all no good
We are obvioously very good despite never having won anything we and dont fear Spain or the USA or Argentina or Slovenia who are all no good but we should've gotten an easier draw to the gold obviously if it wasnt rigged by FIBA
I think I'm up to date now
Might be slightly oversimplifying that there Nostraballmus lol. I know I personally never said USA aren't any good but I think it's fair to ask questions of a team that lost most of its warm ups and also lost the only game they've played against a decent level team.
Argentina is not a 'bye' for us but we walk in as reasonably strong favourites.
Anyone who thinks Slovenia isn't good has rocks in their head. Any argument that Doncic does everything for them can be made for Patty MIlls and Australia really. I think we have a better balance than Slovenia but they're not a team I'd really want to face.
I think the one team we all agree is good is France.
I don't know how good Australia is because we're yet to be tested by one of the top-tier teams but I also don't think the Boomers fear anyone in particular. They've not won anything internationally but they're definitely been around the mark for a long time.
The FIBA draw turned out fair enough and any conspiracy theory around that is totally unfounded and ridiculous.
The law of averages is on our side, right? We've played so many meaningful games and not really put it all together in any of them, the bronze medal game in Rio probably being our best. If you were looking at the Boomers' international record over the last few years as a single season, you would say their win-loss record is worse than expected, given their points differential. Those things do tend to even out over time, so there's a chance we go like 16/30 from 3 or something to run over Spain/USA.
At this stage I think it really hinges on which version of Ingles we get. Kay and Landale can keep covering for Baynes, Patty is Patty, Thybulle is also pretty much predictable at this point. Delly is not going to elevate, I think he's been fine but I don't think he can be better than that, and I think Exum is playing about as well as we can expect, too. That really leaves Ingles as the only guy capable of doing more, and he has to step up. I'd rather see him go 2/14 than 3/3 from the field.
I don't think it's about individual efforts quite as much as it is about cohesion as a team. This team hasn't looked like its found its rhythm and everything still looks clunky. That has less to do with anyone giving you much more and more about everyone doing just that 1 percent extra to make the unit better.
Ingles needs to be more aggressive though. No two ways about it. He can create, shoot, draw fouls, open things up for shooters and for drivers. Games like the last one he played against Germany are not going to cut it moving forward. It's one thing to cover for Baynes, it's another to have to cover for Ingles while he's actually on the floor. Get your cheeky smirk back Joe. Talk shit to the opposition. Shoot a three directly in the opponent's grill. That's the Ingles I want to see. Not this scared confused looking boy that has stolen his jersey a few times in this tournament.
I'd much rather play Spain than USA, we'll struggle to keep up with the scoring potency of USA, patty jacking shots won't cut it.
At least with Spain they are less athletic, slower etc. We cold grind a win out of that.
I don't think it will happen, but if anyone can knock off the USA it's Spain. Fingers crossed...
Bit harsh on Jingles but know what you mean.
Thybulle is the surprise prize! Yeah, he's a yank, plays NBA bla, bla, but he fits in, right away. Brought exactly what we were told he would bring and sneaked some valuable points into his bags and, vola, we are in with a chance.
Remember when we were all debating over Cotton/Thybulle? The choice was eventually forced on us. Thanks for the lack of actual choice. Would still like Cotton there too.
Sobey and Goulding are just possibly ready to play. Both seen as the weaker members of our roster but with the big-game-nerves out of the way, both have improved, ever so slightly, but if they, or either one of them, has a mini-break-out game, everything is possible.
Kay and Landale stepping up terrifically to cover for Baynes(get well soon, big fella), Reath will have some impact, somewhere and the rest only need to do what's natural for them, ... Win!
Sobey showed some great signs in the last game. If he can contribute what he did then consistently he will be of a lot of help for a team that will need to rotate deep into the bench and switch a lot of players over a lot of positions.
Rather than shorten rotations it wouldn't surprise me if we go deeper into our bench, if only in spots, and try to absolutely hustle these opposition teams off the floor. I think one of Thybulle or Green should be on the court at all times just making life hell for someone. Sobey might be useful in that he also has an irritating tenacity about him. I think that is the kind of play it is going to take to get on the podium for us because I don't think letting teams get into their half court stuff will be at all helpful.
I can't see Spain getting any better, whereas the USA definitely can. Spain have been playing this style with the same guys for years, whereas the USA is still getting used to it and to each other.
I’d rather play Spain, in other words. Against them in Euro style game, everyone on our roster can contribute. However, against the USA, guys like Sobey, Goulding and Reath will get dakked by the USA’s speed, height, athleticism and confidence.
Against Germany Landale and Kay combined for 34 points on 70% FG shooting, including 3-4 from deep and 100% at the line - this offensive production and efficiency is critical as Patty shot 39% for his 24 points.
The challenge will be or Landale/Kay/Reath to defend and rebound aginst the taller teams.
Agree that Ingles will need to be more aggressive offensively to give some scoring from the wings – Patty took 23 shots to Ingles 8.
Defences will key in on Patty in the next three rounds – while this has been to the benefit of the frontcourt through Mills' assist count – having Joe as another scoring threat will ease the on-ball pressure off Patty.
Just like we saw with Bryce Cotton this season, teams will be doubling Patty or putting athletic, longer, pesky defenders on him to get the ball out of his hands.
Any scoring/outside shooting from Goulding, Sobey and to a lesser extent Matisse, will be a boost. It’s always these X-factor elements that seem to push teams over the line in crunch time.
I want to hope that Delly has some more left in the tank somewhere, but won’t be depending on it. How Dante and Green cover for that will be the question.
I think the Boomers defence is top-class and pushes us to medal contention but the concern is an offence that can splutter and is very dependent on Patty.
Three wins for Gold –the Boomers are probably locked into that mentality and aren't scared of any of these teams - unlike me who's seen too much heartbreak at the international level.
Our side of the draw has pretty clear favourites.
Not to say it'll definitely go that way, but I'll be surprised if USA don't win through against us in the semi.
The other side of the draw looks more even. Slovenia and France favs obviously but not by as much in my view.
Slovenia has a guard who led the Spanish league in scoring (#7), plus #31 who shot 20+ yesterday and plays NBA. And of course Doncic, best player in the tournament.
I would love to see the hoops forum equivalent in France or Spain or Argentina or Slovenia and see how these fans rate their draw and above all how they see Australia - do Spain fans think if they beat the US they then have an easy run to the Gold medal match as they only have to deal with Australia or Argentina? Are Slovenian or French fans relieved that they avoided Australia in the draw, or wish they had Aust instead of Italy or Germany? etc etc. What do the others think of us?
Goulding. He's been quiet. He's our other sharpshooter, is not afraid of taking the big shots, and when he heats up can blow a game wide open.
Indeed. Can change things very quickly if he gets a sniff.
Hasn't been on target so far but has taken the few good looks he has been given. I feel like we need to do a better job of setting him up when he's on the floor.
Everything I have seen online big-bird is that most fans across countries are pretty wary of Australia. There is a meme going around Facebook from America talking about the tough run USA has to gold for having to face Spain and than Australia.
I know Argentinians had us as their preferred match up to Spain from what I was seeing on Twitter. But Spain has the history and the pedigree so that doesn't surprise mer. I am sure they would have chosen to take Germany or Italy over us if they had such choices.
Half-Aussie here if I can call myself like that, since I never lived in Australia (my dad was born and lived in Brisbane for first 28 years and has moved to Slovenia more than 25 years ago).
As an ex college bball player in Slovenia and now a big fan, I have watched all the Aus and Slo games so far and I think that this could be the year for the Boomers to finally get the medal. Inglish needs to show more!
Very hyped! Its getting similar to 2017 during the Eurobasket gold medal run. Everyone believes that medal is reachable, especially after the QF draw and the fact that Slo is now 16-0 when Luka plays. The bball experts here and fans on "hoops" like forum praise fast paced offense and the fact that they have a global superstar in team obviously adds to the hype.
The general opinion is that they will either have to beat Fra or Aus for a medal. A lot has been said also about the Boomers, especially after Baynes got injured (he had a great season playing in Slovenia before joining Spurs). A lot of talented players, but somehow always someone missing, without a true dominant star and trailing a bit behind the Euro teams in terms of coaching and game style.
In my opinion, Aus, Slo and France are very close and it will come down to daily form and small details.
Q-land, agree. Argentina will be vey bouyant about their chances of beating Oz tonight. I suspect they will feel they havent played well so far but are building, and also that they have had a good look at them in the warm-up games and understand what they need to do to win. A bit like us traditionally, Argentina thrive on an underdog mentality and can embrace thta in the position they are in. The Boomers are clear favourites and should win, but will need to be good tonight to see them off. I think it will go down to the wire with a tight win for Oz. Go you Boomers.
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