Stevy
Two years ago
FIBA World Cup Asian Qualifiers Window 1 & 2 Review
The FIBA World Cup Asian Qualifiers are less than a week away. FIBA basketball is finally back. No FIBA break for the NBL, CBA, KBL, PBA, and T1 league, mostly due to the pandemic ruining schedules. The B league, as always, will have a FIBA break to accommodate players with national team duties. Will only review Group A and B.
Group A
NZL
KOR
PHI
IND
This group is full of surprises and not in a good way.
The first team is the Tall Blacks, and due to the NBL not having a FIBA break and the ongoing NCAA season, their team is composed of their team C as far as depth is concerned. They still have NBL players but these guys are players who are not important to their respective teams. Their training camp will be only 8 days long, and since these players have not played with each other, it exposes them to the Koreans and the Filipinos due to their chemsitry.
Korea was poised to look like the strongest team in this window and I expected them to sweep all of their games with them sending their strongest possible team plus the chemistry, but like I said earlier, there were a lot of bad surprises. Ra Gun-ah, Heo Hoon (KBL MVP), Kim Jongkyu, etc.) are all out recently due to COVID and there is not enough time for them to make it. There are only 7 players left from their initial 14 man pool due to Covid. Their training camp starts tommorow and they fly to Manila in 22. You can see how bad the situation is for Korea.
Philippines is really disappointing. Tab Baldwin is gone, and the once promising direction has been hit with uncertainty. Chot Reyes is back. In terms of talent, this team is more talented than last year's roster, but talent doesn't translate to wins without a good amount of preparation (FIBA WC 2019 with PBA pros vs 2020 Olympic qualifiers with Amatuer/college players). It is very painful to see the SBP shoot themselves in the foot again and again. Well, at least they hired Coach Nenad Vucinic as an assistant and they still have a good portion of Tab's old pool (Kouame, Ramos, etc.).
India can't be underestimated. Amritpal and Princepal is in the team and they are bringing a team with decent size (6'6.3 Average height) and a mix of youth and veterans. It will be interesting to see how good their recent batch of NBA Academy products will be in the FIBA Asia level (3 in the final 12). The three teams above have their own issues and if they want to win, then this is the time for them to bring an upset but it is still very unlikely in my opinion. They just have a better chance now because of the setbacks these teams are facing. Developing their young players for long term goals and being competitive in stretches is already a W for me. They should continue to build for the future.
Prediction: I can't say much other than that India is probably losing all of their games. Korea will still bring a well-oiled team with chemistry, but their front court with Ra Gun-ah and Kim gone exposes them to NZL, PHI, and even India's bigs. Korea is losing too many players, with 7 already gone from the initial 14. Gilas, if they do retain at least Tab's defensive system, can possibly sweep this window due to the Koreans' setback and NZL preparation, plus home court advantage, but with so many new variables (reintroduction of DDO, etc.), I won't expect much from them. NZL has decent players, but their chemistry is in question. Korea has chemistry, but with a depleted roster, how far can they go? It is extremely unfortunate that all teams are experiencing setbacks. I can't see a clear winner. It all comes down to Korea and Gilas. New Zealand will be competitive but there is too little preparation for them to beat these two teams in my opinion.
Group B
CHN
JPN
AUS
TPE
No Chinese games for this window. Will see them back in the June WC qualifier window.
Japan is under the reign of Tom Hovasse. Last window, they were badly swept by China (Average 24.5 margin in 2 games) but that is to be expected with a team under a new system (Hovasse). I expect more cohesion in this window. There are 3 NPs in their pool (Fazekas, Rossiter,Evans) so no definite NP yet. They have preparations and home court on their side, so Japan has a chance to upset the Boomers but still unlikely.
Australia is sending a weak team in terms of their overall depth, but it is still enough to sweep all of their games. The most notable players are Nick Kay, Angus Brandt, and Rhys Vague. Nick Kay will be the best player in this group, and with a frontline of Kay, Brandt, and Moller, it will be too much for the Japanese and Taiwan to handle once their NP is in the bench. One name that caught my interest was Makuach Maluach, playing well in the Finnish league, which is arguably top 20-25 European league. Yes, not that impressive of a league, but still, he produced decent numbers.
Taiwan will be debuting their new NP (William Artino). Artino has been a decent player in the European (Denmark and Romania) leagues, which are known to be mid-tier European leagues (Top 12-20), and he played well in top Mexican league. They did beat Guam without a NP last year but their roster so far has plenty of new faces. Can't say much so far, a lot of new variables.
Prediction: Australia will be the winner this window (Beats Taiwan and Japan by at least 15). Either Taiwan will surprise Japan with a competitive match (Japan will still pull off the W with a decent lead) or Japan will beat Taiwan convincingly (15 points plus).