TAS to repeat @ 8.00 average odds on Betfair.

The most important odds concerning the JJs are: what are the odds McVeigh returns?

If the answer is "low" then $8 or even $9 seems right.

I've never used Betfair but is there much NBL betting on Betfair? As there has to be other participants- are there enough people to actually make bets?

I like the Hawks to make the playoffs.

LV, Betfair will have very liquid markets for all things NBL once the season starts and at better odds than the bookmakers but the rub is you pay 5% commission on your winnings so you need to factor that in. They also ban no-one and don't limit bets for winning punters. The futures markets can be less liquid but ok if just small investments. I think Bet365 still have an early payout at 18 points, that is until they take promos off you which doesn’t take much if a winning punter or use it too much. Their odds though are often not far off betfair and they have by far the best cash out feature (very close to live betfair odds) even letting you back out of your bet before the game starts without cost (unless the odds have moved in the meantime). Same caveat for all as LV. In the long run punting is a very slippery slope for a lot of people and requires extraordinary time, focus and discipline to make a profit (resources that are much better directed and profitable doing other things). Even just investing in exchange traded funds on the ASX, for example. Much better to just enjoy the thrill of the sporting contest in all its glory in the old fashioned way.

I've never used Betfair but is there much NBL betting on Betfair? As there has to be other participants- are there enough people to actually make bets?

I've never used Betfair but is there much NBL betting on Betfair? As there has to be other participants- are there enough people to actually make bets?

Interesting.

Thanks both

I'm not a gambler but what are united odds.

Are there odds for wooden spoon? I'd like to place a healthy wager on Brisbane.

JJs are $5 and United $5.50 on Vic TAB. United same on Betfair. Kings favourites at $3.50. Next Cats at $7. Others longer. Interestingly JJs still shortening. We're $6 the other day.

I'm wondering if TAB has scaled back their NBL offering because memory suggests historically they have more NBL markets at this stage of proceedings

There's not much across the different platforms except championship, minor premiership and playoffs (which means semi finals. Not play in)

Are the playoffs considered making the last 4?

Finals is top 6. NBL now calls the semi-finals the playoffs and the grand final the championship series.

With McVeigh, noticed the Rockets have 2 of last years 2 way contracted players still going to training camp and who are on Exhibit 10s (I think) and they can be upgraded to two way contracts again by 31October. That is not uncommon for NBa teams though. They may just end up staying on their exhibit 10s and playing G league. Roth talks about the task in front of McVeigh at some length on SEN last week. Explains how difficult it will be to even crack minutes for one game (although I have read they have to put you on the bench for at least 2 games) and that he will be basically playing G league (which doesn't sound that appealing for a 28 year old who Rucker rates as a top 5 player in the NBL). I know he stand to earn the $580k but that is only if he survives past 31 December. Roth talks about him potentially being offered a contract overseas that the JJs won’t be able to match if he is cut by the Rockets. Still find it intriguing though that the JJs have his 2025 JJs Jersey for sale even though he is currently not on the JJs roster.

Top 4 history- the last 6 years.

2019- Per, Melb, Syd, Bris
2020- Syd, Per, Cairns, Melb
2021- Mel, Per, Illawarra, SEM
2022- Mel, Syd, Illawarra, Tas
2023- Syd, NZ, Cairns, Tas (regular season top 4 and also semi finals)
2024- Mel, Per, Tas, Illawarra (regular season top 4 and also semi finals)

Melbourne has made 5 out of 6- the exception being 22-23 when Hukporti missed the season after doing his achilles at the Blitz, and Ili missed half the season with concussion. Still finished 15-13.
Tas 3 of 3 since entering the competition.
Perth 4 of 6. Finished 5th the other two years, still posting winning records of 16-12 and 15-13. One of them helped by an untimely Vic Law injury (2022). The other Rillie's rookie season (2023).
Sydney 4 of 6.
Illawarra 3 of 6 including 3 of the last 4. Goorjian’s two seasons then last year with the Tatum mid-season takeover.

Other clubs have snuck in from time to time.
- Brisbane in 2019 finished 4th with a 14-14 record (which is an oddity, given Perth went 16-12 and finished 5th in 2022, and United went 15-13 and finished 7th in 2023)
- SEM in 2021 but they had a great roster that year.
- Cairns in 2023 with DJ Hogg, McCall, and Pinder’s most improved year. Waardenburg with a great rookie season. Scott playing a role to perfection.
- Cairns in 2020 with the awesome import trio of Machado, Oliver and Newbill.
- NZ in 2023 with WMW, Pardon, Brantley, B Brown Jnr.

What stands out from this analysis:

1. The same old suspects keep getting in or going close. Melbourne and Perth have posted winning records every year. Tas are 3 from 3.

2. When other clubs make a cameo, it’s usually because they have great imports who exceed expectations.

I’m tipping history to repeat. I think the top 4 will be Sydney and Perth, and 2 of Illawarra, Melbourne and Tas. They all have talent, depth and strong coaches. (Rillie has had detractors but entering his 3rd season should be coming into his coaching prime).

But usually there’s one surprise package. One team who unexpectedly makes top 4. Illawarra after Tatum took over (2024), Cairns with Pinder’s massive improvement and DJ Hogg starring (2023), Tas in their first year (2022), Cairns with great imports (2020), Bris (2019).

But I’m wondering if Brisbane at $7 is a worthwhile bet.

It looks an even season. Could we have another 2019, where someone sneeks in with 14-14 (15-14 this year)?

Yes it’s only pre-season, but Brisbane have played well despite missing 2-4 players every game. It’s showcased their depth, with Deng Adel the surprise package and Harrison showing improvement. I’m not completely sold on Batemon or Cook yet, but they may have the depth and the structure to sneak into the top 4 without any alpha stud or MVP candidate.

When I say "it looks an even season" what I mean is, both JJs and United's rosters have downgraded.

So despite their combined 8 playoff appearances in their last 9 seasons, they may be challenged harder this year than last year.

Meanwhile the overall standard of some other teams (Brisbane, SEM, Adelaide) looks intriguer and potentially any of those teams could have their best season in many years if they stay healthy and click.

And Illawarra, while they stormed home last year, theyve lost Gary Clark and they dont have multiple years of proven success like the others. So they aren't quite a proven commodity (although I personally am very high on them).

I'm tempted to take the $7 value bet, because Brisbane finished 13-15 last year but they might have a better team this year.

Schueller into his 2nd season coaching.

Returning players: Harrison, Zikarsky, Bannan, McDaniel, White, Norton.

Outs: Imports: Scott, Smith. Locals: Sobey, Baynes, Mitchell.

Ins: Imports: Batemon, Cook, Prather. Locals: Deng Adel. Smith-Milner.

Firstly, returning players. Harrison, Zikarsky, Bannan - I expect significant improvement here compared to last season. Schuller should be more comfortable in his 2nd season and a team he’s had more input into.

Then the ins and outs.

Sobey obviously a big out. But the imports offset this to an extent, with 3 imports instead of 2 this year. (I’m adding Prather into the "ins" because he only played 7 games late last season).

Deng Adel looks surprisingly good. Should bring more than Mitchell did last year.

Baynes was cooked last season and bought more aggro than game. He won’t be missed. Arguably he was just holding back Zikarsky’s development.

Summary:

The biggest question is, and remains, how much they get from Batemon/Cook/Prather.

It’s challenging breaking into the top 4 with so many pre-eminent superpowers in the NBL (Syd, Per, Mel, Tas) and one of the middle teams looking quite good (Illawarra) with others having probably more top-line talent than Brisbane (SEM, Ade, NZ).

But Brisbane run deep. They’ve shown that already. They seem to have a decent system in place after a competitive first year under Schueller. At $7 it almost seems worth the bet.

LV $7 for Brisbane to win the title? Yeah nah they have no chance. They don't have enough starting 5 talent nor the bench depth in my opinion. They will be lucky to make the 6

That's their odds to make the playoffs (semifinals)

Sorry my apologies. That is a decent bet. Tough competition but they are a chance

Bullets looking far better than last season and only just missed playoffs last season. If they can keep Harrison and Rocco healthy with Prather and Adel showing good form they might knock on door for top four, certainly top six.

"I like the new mandatory advertising slogans- "Chances are you're about to lose", "Win some, lose more", “Think about what you’re really gambling with” etc etc"

Interestingly these were basically the same as most of the agencies were doing as their voluntary code beforehand and they're happy with these lines because it puts all of the fault/blame on the individual rather than the companies themselves and perpetuates the notion that harm from gambling is an individual personal failing and not the result of predatory practices.

which is endorsed by the various state governments who keep increasing turnover tax on bookmakers resulting in worse odds (and faster losses) for punters. The whole industry is cast.

For the record real degenerates prefer "No gamble, no future".

Yeah I see that Cram but still think it's more effective than the simple "gamble responsibly" which had lost all impact

Interesting TAB is running a "playoff" book meaning play-in, whereas Sportsbet's "playoff" book refers to semi-finals.

I like SEM at $5.00 to outperform United on regular season wins with TAB.

And Cotton at $4 for MVP.

I've put a few dollars on each and that'll probably do me I think.

Didn't end up going with the Bullets for "playoffs" eg semi-finals with Sportsbet.

"Yeah I see that Cram but still think it's more effective than the simple "gamble responsibly" which had lost all impact"

I dont think it is more effective. Most convince themselves that they're not the one being talked to and at the end of the day, its still 100% putting any "problem" on the individual not on the predatory business model.

I think we have to be pragmatic and understand the shades of grey with these things, and understand the need to balance the apparent tensions between safeguarding society versus allowing individuals to take responsibility for their actions.

It's a subset of that broader discussion isn't it. Many things are "predatory" or at least can be damaging within society, eg social media for youth, alcohol, drugs, etc. But somewhere along the line, adults also need to be allowed to make choices. So it's about finding the right balance.

All of these types of things- alcohol, fast food, gambling, social media, sugar- etc etc- they're all good, enjoyable, or at least, relatively morally benign when consumed in moderation but dangerous in excess.

Beer companies rely on the people who down a 6-pack every night after a day on the tools. Alcohol wouldn’t be a profitable business if everyone drank in moderation or minimally, would it? So all these corporates- whether SportsBet or Coopers Brewery- have perverse incentives, because their very profitability relies on those with addictive personalities, or those who are damaging themselves with excess consumption. I think we all understand this.

So all of these industries are "predatory business models" broadly understood.

But is the answer to just completely ban alcohol, or fast food, or social media or gambling?

Most would say, clearly not. So the debate always lies within the middle somewhere. What are the reasonable restrictions which include appropriate safeguards and balance the interests of everybody.

Banning all advertising
Banning promo bets and any kind of incentives
remove odds from all sporting related content/websites/telecasts
banning any game that incorporates loot boxes that can be bought with virtual or real currency
national regulation
national self exclusion scheme and criminal liability for those (companies) that don't adhere to it
stop letting industry set the rules
Max limits

just off the top of my head

Oh and completely banning pokies, yes.

If that list were to be implemented, I think 2nd/3rd tier sports like the NBL would be in serious jeopardy.

There's enough corporate money in Australia that AFL and NRL will always garner support. But you take all betting dollars out of sport- including via TV rights- and the cumulative impact would be huge, and would ultimately make things extremely difficult for any other sports, including down to community sport level.

Yeah that's BS. The same nonsense they said about tobacco. And if your business can't survive without gambling, it shouldn't, frankly.

There's a lot more professional sport requiring corporate support than there was in the 80's when tobacco was involved in sponsorship.

I return to a point from a previous post- where do you draw the line? Gambling, alcohol, fast food, if we ban any sponsor whose business model could be seen as "predatory" or having negative societal impacts there won't be anything left.

Maybe a reminder about the banking royal commission should result in banning the banks and financial services corporates too.

We can choose to be ideological about our personal pet-hate industry, or we can seek to be pragmatic and reasonable and understand the world is grey, not black and white.

I choose the latter.

Which of those measures were unreasonable?

Many of them.

Compromises can be found which put some frameworks and safeguards around it, to avoid an open-slather free-for-all.

For example, ban advertising during the game or within 5 minutes before and after tip-off/game end. Remember the old days when you couldn't get through quarter time without an odds update? Terrible for everyone, and constantly putting it in the faces of the addicts.

Stop gambling from being major sponsors with prominent positioning on player guernseys. Sure. Similar compromise.

Banning credit cards from usage with online gambling accounts- good idea. This occurred recently.

But a complete ban on all advertising, all bonus bets, all betting content on any telecast? Too much.

And this is why Australia loses more than any other country. By a long way.

"if you drink this full bottle of expensive whisky and regret it tomorrow, we'll give you a shot of hooch the next time you come in but only if you buy more of the good stuff. Drink responsibly"

I'm surprised there was so much time spent prefacing about consequences of gambling and then the follow up discussion about it, on what’s otherwise intended to be a chat about bball odds.

I think Australia faces the issue worse than other countries in part because of the addictive gene and genetic makeup of many Australian population backgrounds.

When you have addiction you have consequences that can spiral beyond any reality of individual freedom or personal choice. The question then is should we be factoring the true costs into our investment into mental health and other aspects?

It’s one of the hardest things to do - attribute true cost and taxation to account for those true costs. People don’t like to pay up. But that, mixed with appropriate regulatory framework would be the right approach IMO.

I know it’s neither carte blanche free choice nor banishment so it would be universally unpopular by the electorate.

Interesting take KET.

Genetics would no doubt play a role for many but unsure exactly to what extent.

This week I've bet on Illawarra- they started at $1.53. Now into $1.35 and $1.37.

Brisbane started at $2.93 and I got them at $2.67. Now into $2.35 (TAB) and $2.60 (Sportsbet), I'm surprised that game isn't 50/50 since Gillespie's out, even Brisbane arguably deserve slight favouritism. I think they're 5-1 in pre-season and NZ 0-5. Good test of how much pre-season matters I guess. Although, interestingly Bullets might be tired after playing Batemon and Cook over 30 minutes in the Blitz decider.

Both good examples of NBL betting not quite starting at market though

Both are professional athletes and by the time tip off comes around it will be 6 days break. If they are tired they are in the wrong profession.

They played 3 games in a week and now travel across the country to Perth while most of their opponents were taking it easier and resting players, I just think mentally and physically they might be a fraction off compared to others who will be fresher, and that 5% or 10% could matter.

But the flipside is they were in good form. The best team over the entire pre-season not just the Blitz.

So it could go either way but I thought it was worth a bet at those odds.

They were also in Wangaratta and Mt Gambier the week before the Blitz, they've had a pretty heavy schedule.

Some teams really load up pre-season and others take it easier. I'm not sure which is the better approach.

Without Freddie NZ are in very big trouble

Exactly, thats my thinking too, Bolden looked terrible at the Blitz while Harrison was great. Harrison has a big advantage over Mennenga/Bolden/Pineau, whoever matches him up.

Somebody was asking 3.80 for Sixers to make top four yesterday on Betfair so I duly hit the lay button.

SEM $3.13 to defeat United tomorrow night is great odds

It's a neutral game, SEM home game so crowd will be about 50/50

SEM need the win more than United. I always tend to favour teams who are 0-1 or 0-2 to win their first game on their home court, especially when they're loaded with talent. All they need is Walton or Sobey or someone to go off and have a big one and they're a long way towards a win.

SEM's very much a question mark team, I'm not sure where to place them. But they've got enough talent, and should be a better chance than $3.13 on their home floor against almost anyone, but definitely against United who I don't rate in top 2 or 3 teams this year.

Having said that, United should have an early season advantage with their settled line-up. They started last season really well too.

So United deserves favouritism. But $1.37 to $3.13 doesn't reflect the probability in my view.

Interestingly SEM is $2.80 with TAB and $2.95 with Betr

All the bookies under-rating them IMO

They should be maybe $2.40 or $2.50 in my view

But $3.13 is just crying out for a bet. They shouldn't be $3.13 at John Cain Arena against anyone. Much less United who were solid last week, but not outstanding.

A 50:50 game in my view LV. Always amazes me how the bookies get punters to take the odds on the favourite in a game like this. Great odds for SEM and terrible odds for United.

I wouldn't say 50/50

United has most of the same team who went 20-8 and lost the closest grand final series of all time, after giving up leads in several games

SEM are in trouble if Hunter gets into foul trouble. With Delly and Ili penetrating and Lee or White rolling to the hoop, good luck to Matt Hurt protecting the rim.

But, SEM could indeed get on a roll. They'll score 100+ many times this season, you can almost guarantee that. And that's enough to be in any game. They'll be hungry to prove their doubters wrong. Plenty of experienced guys with big game experience

Another way of looking at it, is this. Almost any NBL team at $3.13 in a neutral venue, is value against almost any other NBL team.

But $1.37 to $3.13 doesn't reflect the probability in my view.

I'm referring to the discrepancy between the two teams not the exact dollars

Whether it's 3.25 vs 1.44 or 3.13 vs 1.37 my view is identical.

My estimation of the probability would be something like 60/40

So on a "no margin" odds system, that would be $1.66 vs $2.50

LV, Saturday nights game opened up at 1.90 both teams on Vic TAB with United now into $1.77 and JJs $2.04. So early money clearly for United.

That surprises.

JJ's have a winning record against United in each of their first 3 seasons. They are United's bogey team.

The game's at MyState. Tasmania have a full contingent except MacDonald. They'll be fresher after having a week off, United played last night.

JJ's deserve slight favouritism.

But I've already been burned once this week betting against my own team, so I'll hold off. It's not great value anyway. They're $2.04 but I'd have them $1.70. Hardly huge value. I only bet when the odds a long way off my estimation of probability.

MEL @ 1.44 was clearly the value pick vs. SEM (with hindsight).

It's early season and we're basing our judgements on a rapidly expanding but small body of work from each team

No doubt, by the end of the season some of these teams will be doing much worse than we anticipated early days, others much better

SEM was down by 5 with a minute to go. It was only White's baseline drive with 53 seconds left- taking the lead to 7- which essentially sealed the result.

Sorry 8 cos he hit the free throw

Some notable changes to the futures market on Betfair after round 2. Hawks $3.55 and JJs $3.88 join the Kings at $3.00 as most favoured.

Good thing I already got Illawarra for the title at $17 and playoffs at $6 and $4.33 :-)

I ended up doing multi- Tas over Mel and Illawarra over Syd at $8.98. Nice win.

Illawarra was a massive outsider- despite looking every bit as good as the Kings, and the Kings flying back from Perth. Meanwhile as discussed above, Tassie were somehow slight underdogs against United even though they've owned the matchup 3 years straight, and were playing at home.

I also have Illawarra at $5 to make Grand Final with TAB. That's now into $3.

Incredibly the head to head regular season wins against Sydney is still $4.50 even after Illawarra beat them.

The risk to Illawarra is injury to Kell, Harvey or even Hickey. They don't have huge guard depth.

But if those guys stay healthy, and the rest of the team has a fair injury run, I think you can pencil Illawarra in for 19 or 20 wins minimum from 29 games. And probably higher.

Sydney will probably be in the 20s themselves, who knows, they could be the new 08 Kings who went 27-3 under Goorj. But at $4.50 on Illawarra it's a good bet.

Somebody was asking 3.80 for Sixers to make top four yesterday on Betfair so I duly hit the lay button.

Cooks $9 for MVP with TAB despite being huge over the first 3 games.

Yeh I am a bit late to the party but Cooks at 6.00 tab for mvp I am on board.. Perth start slow most seasons and cotton normally wins MVP due to his team flying home late because of him... they had injuries and sickness over weekend but stil.. the league is deeper this year with Illawarra, Tassie not going away and Cairns improving and we are yet to really see if New Zealand are legit.. I'll take the solid best player on best team in Cooks.. I don't see Jaylen Adams being a problem as he will have his quiet games when locked down by a good guard at times that will rule him out of mvp....

You can still get 2.10 Bullets to have most losses at b365.. Cairns are somehow amazingly 3.50 2nd favorite despite obviously being underrated with Armstrong nearly at nba level and a definite future Boomer and Edwards thriving as an import... South East is 3.50 but ive taken a small cover bet on them at tab 5.00 still! I think they have more quality than Brisbane especially with Hurt looking a consistent threat.. and I feel Sobey/Walton will get better pretty soon.. Brisbane though are awful.. two bust imnports in Cook and Bateman.. Prather is ok but way past his best.. then the big men rotation is a mess with 4 bigs off bench in Bannan, Zikarsky, Milner , Bairstow.. little scoring punch off bench with White who's hit and miss and Norton more there for intensity... definite wooden spooner I feel

I didn't even mention Adelaide as big improvers when it comes to Perth and Cotton being finals/mvp chances... I just looked over New Zealands roster and it doesnt really impress me much.. similar standard to South East maybe even worse tbh.. I guess Carter will lead them to some ok wins but at 15.00 most losses it isn't the worst bet tbh if you are looking for cover bet other than the bullets..

wonder how far Adelaide can go.. I'd have Kendrick Davis as 2nd mvp pick right now... he's 13.00 but should be ahead of Harrell who's 9.00 and no definite to even stay the whole season right?

can also grab Cairns 1.67 season h2h vs Bullets.. most of the value is gone there well all haha.. but still seems a solid as bet if you can wait the whole season for the payout

So, if Andrew Bogut is right (refer article on NBL app), how will McVeigh's return impact the market for the championship. A number of us had the JJs clear favourites before his NBA announcement but that was possibly before all the Kings signings were announced. If MacDonald comes back healthy as well their roster arguably is all of sudden better than last year with Deng’s form and latent upside that is becoming increasingly apparent with Sword.

NB: He got 8 points and 2 boards in 8 minutes against the Jazz today. So, maybe a little premature to be predicting his return.

I'm just annoyed you pointed me to a Bogut article to read lol

Apparently the NBL article is sourced from Boguts podcast. So a bit of a nuance but apologies anyway Sebastian. I have wondered all along if it was going to come down to just a season of G League for him whether the JJs would not just match (or better) the $580k and bring him home. That would increase the cash spend but would be marqueed under the cap. The JJs have paid that sort of money before - Josh Adams reportedly in 2022. And we saw last year their cash spend was reportedly well over $3M (if I recall correctly) yet still profitable.

I don't believe he’s getting anywhere near 550k to play g league, he would be a marquee under his current contract with JJs, Roth always hinted that he’d be back. The budget buy in Terangi tells us that as well imo.

I agree Dunkman that the Terangi deal does fit with that theory. Magnay is currently marqueed so they would need to swap that over to McVeigh if his money was going to be in that vicinity. People on socials are asking why the NBL is running a story on Bogut's mere speculation. Answer may be that McVeigh was the face of a lot the NBL preseason promotion which would have had a commercial driver in terms brand recognition in the wider sporting public. So maybe it would very much suit the NBL as well were that to happen. It would doubtless be a huge story that would probably transcend mainstream sports media. Hence Larry potentially signing off on a bigger deal as the JJs owner.

If McVeigh comes back, they're right alongside Sydney and Illawarra vying for favouritism

The championship market is odd though. With Sportsbet United and Hawks equal 2nd favs at $5. With Betfair and TAB, United is $4 to Hawks $5.50.

That makes no sense. United's start has been underwhelming. A couple of nice wins but the two losses shone a spotlight on their serious weakness.

I'd be taking Perth. $12 with Sportsbet which is pretty wild to me. They've got the reigning MVP (and 4* MVP) with a solid supporting cast in a 10 team comp. Similar group to last year when they led Tassie 1-0 and 12 point lead in Game 2.

The Betfair market is illiquid, that's why (hint: check the difference between back and lay odds).

Yeah I've noticed that. It's why I haven't bothered joining.

It's still worth it since a.) you can lay bet and b.) people offer up stupid odds.

So essentially lay betting is you become the bookmaker and another punter takes your odds, right?