The Big Duke
Earlier this week
NBL1 Central Finals
With finals approaching this weekend I thought it would be good to get some discussions going.
West Adelaide vs Sturt (Women)
Prediction: West by 4 (Sturt by 6 if Brazel plays)
West Adelaide finds themselves in a familiar position, facing a disciplined Sturt outfit that has already bested them twice this season. The Sabres' defensive scheme has been kryptonite for the MVP candidate, clogging lanes and forcing others to beat them.
But a third meeting may not go the same way. West are expected to have adjusted their game plan after being tactically out maneuvered in both regular-season matchups. The wildcard? Strawbridge returning and Brazel possibly sidelined. If Brazel suits up, Sturt have the structure and continuity to grind out another win. If not, West's firepower and retooled approach might finally crack the code.
North Adelaide vs Woodville (Women)
Prediction: Woodville by 8
This matchup feels like a study in preseason hype versus end-of-season form. North were paper champions heading into 2025, a stacked roster with high expectations, but they’ve stumbled through injuries and inconsistency.
Woodville, meanwhile, have found their rhythm. Well coached and peaking at the right time, they bring a balanced attack and a disruptive defense. Fejo has become the most feared scorer in the comp, reminiscent of a prime Basham.
With North's offense sputtering and Woodville hitting stride, this shapes up as a high-paced contest the Rockets may struggle to keep up with. Expect the Warriors to pour in points and run away late.
Woodville vs Centrals (Men)
Prediction: Woodville by 8
Once flying high at 13-1, the Centrals have hit turbulence at the worst time, dropping 3 of their last 4 following the departure of import Kevin Baker. Last week’s collapse against this very Woodville side (blowing a 21-point second half lead) leaves questions about their mental edge. Was it tactical tanking to dodge South? Or have they simply lost their identity?
Woodville, by contrast, are the league’s comeback kings. Wurm and Jackson have delivered career-best seasons, and no lead is safe when they’re rolling. The knock on Wurm has always been his finals form and this is the stage to silence the doubters.
Momentum and belief sit firmly in the Warriors’ camp. If they bring the energy early, expect another statement win and the Lions halfway to an early fishing trip in Walaroo.
South Adelaide vs West Adelaide (Men)
Prediction: West by 12
South were dealt a gut punch in the final round — losing their double chance courtesy of a Parfitt game winning dunk. Now the pressure is on. Losing team first grinder Hoppo a few weeks back won’t help, and with McVeigh coming off a blazing 13-of-18 shooting night, there’s a real risk of offensive ego battles creeping in.
West Adelaide are the wildcard of the finals. Inconsistent all year, but with perhaps the highest ceiling outside of Forestville. Was their underachievement part of a masterplan from Nyberg to peak in August or has it just been a messy campaign finally clicking late?
What’s not in doubt is that Rasmussen is the best player in the league. South don’t have a clean matchup without Starling, and if he gets rolling, it’s curtains. This feels like a breakout statement for West.
