Itll most probably move around seedings wise but the 4 is set for mine. Your last sentence in brackets sums up my opinion perfectly. They stuck with a guy below par and they will miss out because of it. Randle has been so great they have gotten close, but not close enough nor would they make much noise anyways. Hawks for title on form leading into the home stretch. United were destined to fall out, then started winning again just before it became too much deja vu from last season.

Apart from their nice run home, what also works in Perth's favour is that the other three current top four teams play each other twice each. Mathematically, the losses are going to add up for at least one team, unless they all split the games in which case top spot looks more likely.

I'm not fussed about the form slump.

I expect Adelaide to miss.

Agree with Hawks flag favs.

Uniteds run home will be tough for them. Expect them to just sneak in.

despite everyone saying how even the comp is, the top 4 will remain the same pretty much throughout the season.

There is potentially 6 teams that could make the 4 including Cairns. They have just beaten Perth and NZ so they have shown they can beat the top teams. Crocs and Kings are obviously a "no chance in hell".

It will be an interesting 4-5weeks with the top 5 teams playing each other a lot.
Perth shave the best chance to finish top of the ladder only because all but one game left is at home followed closely by Hawks and Breakers. 4th spot is a tough one.

Both 36ers and United play away more than they are at home. United have a nightmare run home Taipans(A), Taipans(H), 36ers(A), Wildcats(A), Hawks(A), Breakers(A), Breakers(H)

United are up on the series vs 36ers 2-1 with a +2 points differential with their last battle penciled in for 22nd Jan in Adelaide. That game may well determine 4th place.

New Zealand are shaky. I had Melbourne down as missing out a month ago. They were woeful, but seem to have recovered.

The Illawarra-Adelaide series will be massive. 2 games in the Gong and one in Adelaide I think.

The run home:
MEL: (14/7) (10/2 & 4/5)
@CNS, CNS, @ADL, @PER, @ILL, @NZB, NZB
Should have enough at the moment to guarantee a top 4 spot. Likely wins at home and probably 1 win away should leave them 17/11

PER: (13/8) (7/1 & 6/7)
SYD, ILL, CNS, MEL, SYD, @SYD, ADL
Great run home with probably the ADL game the test. They will have top spot in the bag, so will they do a North Melbourne and rest the starting 5?
They should finish 19/9.

ILL: (12/8) (7/2 & 5/6)
NZB, @NZB, @PER, ADL, @ADL, MEL, TSV, ADL
No easy games here with all games against potential top 4 teams. Will want to ice NZB in the next game. Lose that game and they are on shaky ground. Likely finish is 15/13.

NZB: (11/8) (8/2 & 3/6)
@ILL, ILL, @TSV, @CNS, TSV, @ADL, CNS, MEL, @MEL
They have the sunshine swing, so really need to bag at least one of those games. I'm thinking they might just get to 15/13.

ADL: (10/9) (7/3 & 3/6)
@TSV, SYD, MEL, @ILL, ILL, NZB, @CNS, @ILL, @PER
Worst run home of the teams with the last 3 on the road. The Illawarra series the clincher here. I'm thinking wins @ILL crucial.

I'm going for a threeway. ADL to finish 15/13.

PER
MEL
?
?

Season has been great, very close and many upsets. Yes, the Crocs fell away early but I agree that the Kings are probably the biggest underachievers this season, not all their fault if we take into account all the injuries.

Cairns I think will join these two as the third bottom, but then it is genuinely tough and every game from here on will be crucial.

Can't say who will miss out of the other five, so bring it...

Perth are in trouble?
Still one of the best records in the comp, and a dream run home... I am as disappointed as anyone with their lacklustre performances on the road, but I certainly would not right them off.

IIRC Adelaide and Hawks are still to play three times. That will make it hard for both teams.

To answer the OP, Crocs, Snakes, and Kings are gone, and I suspect 6's will be 5th, but I would not be totally surprised to see Breakers or even Hawks drop (depending on their series against Adelaide.)

The top 4 won't change.

I expect Perth to finish on top. Form comes and goes but it'll come back soon enough with Perth Arena behind them every night.

NZ, Illawarra and Melbourne are playing each other a lot on the run home, so placings 2-4 will depend on those results.

Adelaide have been better than I expected with Randle, but they have a tough run home so I don't expect them to win more than 14 games.

Why didn't you expect Adelaide to be good, they came 2nd and 3rd the past two years with the same core?

"Perth in trouble for mine"

actual LOL.

come back to the discussion when you know whats happening.

Paul, Adelaide had Brock Motum last year.

2013-14 is irrelevant because the league was much weaker back then. For example the Tigers finished 3rd that season, do you think that Tigers group would make the top 4 this season? Of course not.

When it became apparent that Randle was a legit gun, I expected Adelaide to win 12-14 games. At 10-9 the door is wide open for them to beat that if they're good enough, but I still think they will end up in that range due to their tough run to finish the season.

I am tipping a Hawks V Perth GF. Perth will finish on top due to the amount of home games they got left plus they play the Hawks and the the United over there so that should ensure (if they in those games)they finish on top and the Hawks will more then likely endup with the second spot. Perth will most likely play the Breakers or the 6ers in the 1st round and with HCA they should win.

The Hawks will play the United with HCA and thy should get through. It sets up and epic 3 game GF series.