Channel 7 aren't giving up the Australian Open this year, they’ve made that clear. Only reason why they’d depart from that is if they are in a contractual bind - they are obliged to show the Tennis on the main channel.
Re Nine, Tennis alone doesn’t mean they wouldn’t be interested in the NBL, same as how they showed a game when they had cricket. But, if we are following a best outcome, Channel Ten is probably that home for the reasons I stated.
In respect of being paid - consider the NBL at the moment, it’s on the rise, it’s improving, it has new investors beyond Kestleman if you consider AEG at Kings, NZs new owners, Kelley at 36ers, Bogut and Chill being keen to go into the action.
The NBL at the moment pays to produce the broadcast and gives it to Fox. In the next few years, if the NBL still pays to produce the broadcast but we get 6-7 hours live FTA and all games on Fox, that’s still a significant step up and money can start being regained through greater sponsorship deals and greater viewership/ticket attendance. Both for NBL and individual clubs. Considering the leaverage we have that I pointed out re no sports on Ten, re Bogut, re Team USA v Boomers, it gives a genuine hand to play at the negotiation table.
Once the NBL is consistently on FTA and Fox for say 2-3 years, that will hopefully give it the opportunity to keep building to then earn a broadcast deal which pays some coin.