My predictions:

Brett Maher
Injury concerns aside, Brett Maher is no weaker than previous years and from his showing in Athens is in solid form. In the absence of Charles Thomas, I think we can expect to see Maher run the show a la 2001/02 and bag 20 PPG. With Rychart, Farley and Holmes expected to see substantial minutes, look for Maher to raise his assist count too. Conversely, is a smart passer and should have one of the lowest turnover counts of any point guard in the league. If things go to plan, I'd say he'll be a deserving club MVP.

Willie Farley
I'm not sure that Farley's a lock for 25 PPG, but he's certainly capable. There could be some doubt after he left West Sydney with a reduced scoring role, but the Sixers need a reliable scorer to win back some fans, and I think Willie can do it. Worst case scenario is 15 PPG, and I don't doubt that he'll manage that comfortably at the very least.

Jacob Holmes
Had high scoring games last year and also those where he went quiet due to lack of opportunity or shots not falling. Was always, however, reliable on the boards and had 8 RPG. After superb ABA form in recent weeks, Jacob is likely to pick up his scoring to fill the gap of Martin Cattalini, but will face solid rebounding competition within the team from the addition of Cooper and Rees. Should be good for 16 and 10.

Dusty Rychart
Rychart averaged 20 and 10 last season and while Cattalini's 20 and 6 are out of the picture, Dusty scored often from CT's feeds and may see his impact reduced in Charles' absense. He keeps at it no matter what, but Cooper's height should see him snag some boards over Rychart. I'd guess 18 and 8 for Dusty, but I expect that we'll see him fill the gaps when other players go missing, scooping up offensive boards and putting it back in.

David Cooper
I'd expect Cooper to soak up fouls in the paint. He has height over Rychart and Holmes who were used defensively in the middle in 03/04, and strength in his legs that will allow him to at least frustrate opposition big men. Looked to tussle with Holmes in the Sixers v Mavs scrimmage at every opportunity, so he either knows what needs to be done (tried in that case!) or follows instructions well. Should be good for a few blocks here and there and could see his stats elevate to around 10 and 6 in ideal circumstances.

Mark Nash
From all indications, went missing in 2003/04, but is expected to return to a more specific defensive role in 04/05. Presently injured and so might be eased back into the 2001/02 role that saw him average 8 PPG and 7 RPG, and limit opposition scoring guards. Is never overly confident, but has reliable hands in handling the ball and manages careful assists.

Oscar Forman
Looked to be playing into form towards the end of 2003/04, managing one of the team's highest field goal percentages while taking a fair portion of shots from outside the arc. With smarter positioning for rebounds and more shot opportunities, would hope to lift to 10 and 6, and add blocks to that.

Paul Rees
Despite playing about as fast as candied honey "pouring" out of a jar, Rees has the strength and defensive experience to cause his share of trouble for opponents. Can't really be judged for 2003/04 after very limited opportunities with Brisbane. Worst case scenario is that he sees limited time off the bench; best case is that he is good for a few points inside and makes his solitary three point attempt for the year.

Darren Ng
At ABA level, routinely shows his ability to create his own shot, but his defensive presence in the NBL is limited by size. Opportunities might be restrained by solid study committments this year, but ideally adds to the list of Adelaide players who you can't leave undefended on the perimeter.

Jason Williams
Ignoring the one game suited in 1998, Williams will be going into his seventh NBL season in 2004/05. Despite playing on teams of varying strength, Jason has not seen a significant statistical fall across his career. In 2003/04, he was scoring 6.5 PPG and 2.5 APG. Can drive and score and should do so more often given a height advantage over other bench guards in the league and is an outside shooting threat (third in the team last season).

In 2003/04, the Sixers had limited success on the back of five guards and five forwards. The tallest player was Oscar Forman in his third year, but lacked the weight and experience to match up against opponents like Bradtke, Knight, Pepper, etc. Dusty Rychart and Jacob Holmes had more strength and playing time to their names, but with both under 200cm, Adelaide were left needing a better team mix.

The Sixers head into 2004/05 adding veteran 205cm centre Paul Rees and fourth-year ex-Taipan 206cm forward/centre David Cooper.

The 10-man roster has far more potential to cover the positions - four guards, two centres and four forwards.

Rebounding
Only lost the 5 RPG and 6 RPG of Charles Thomas and Martin Cattalini respectively, while adding Willie Farley (good for 4-5 RPG), and the two centres who should manage 10 RPG between them. Have enough strength behind Rychart, Nash, Holmes and Forman to make the Sixers a competitive rebounding team.

Scoring
The injection of Farley into the team and the expected return of Brett Maher to his best gives the Sixers the main brunt of their offensive output. Rychart's reliability and Holmes in his fourth year are likely to be good for 15+ each also. Cooper has the potential to add 10 PPG and could be the David Stiff of the 2001/02 team.

Nash, Forman and Williams all averaged around 6-7 PPG last season but are capable of more with the right opportunities. Rees and Ng can definitely fill scoring gaps also with a Sixers bench that looks more experienced and advanced than those of many competing teams.

Outside the perimeter and the Sixers have 7 out of the 10 players who will take and often make the outside shot.


Worst case scenario
Farley fails to spark and drops his head, Maher's back problems resurface, and Cooper, Nash and Forman stay quiet.

Best case scenario
Farley thinks it's 2001/02 and opens with 35 against a hapless Breakers team. Maher stays healthy and picks up the free throw and scoring titles. Cooper or Forman lift to 12-15 PPG and beat NZ's Henare to the most improved award. Jason and Darren play the season wearing matching headbands. And Paul Rees takes one three point shot all season long, makes it, and then doesn't stop dancing.

Great round up Isaac...only thing i would add is that Big Fella is good for one dunk and the big fist pump afterwards.

Looking forward to seeing how the coaching staff rotate Dusty, Oscar, Jacob with Rees and Coop.

Am a bit woried about Willie...are imports ever as good the second time around? Traditionally no but am excited by the upside he is capable of.

The worry in 01/02 was always that Farley was easily scouted and I guess that still stands. But I also figure that it could drag him down a few PPG, but would never negate his presence.

Some clubs have finalised their rosters (Townsville, Hunter, Brisbane perhaps) but we won't know the true state of the competition until Sydney, Perth, West Sydney, etc have signed their imports.

J-Dog can "drive and score"?

If the criteria was "make poor decisions and turn the ball over", OK then I say Williams excels. But no way can he drive and score.

He's an ABL-quality guard who's been masquerading as an NBL player for far too long.

I think you might be right...

He has had ample time to step up, but cant seem to get past the rabbit in the headlights psyche.

Shoot me down, but thats how it looks to a novice observer....

I think it depends on how you look at the glass - half full, or half empty. Jason's not a franchise player, he has nerves, he's inconsistent, he's the "oldest rookie in the league". On the other hand, he's got size and experience compared to other bench guards in the NBL this year, he's a decent outside shot, and he has driven and scored or drawn a foul a few times in the past, and looked confident while doing it.

I've seen it commented on by Boti or Carfino too, so I wasn't imagining it.

But I figure that I'd look on the positive side with this write-up, rather than calling Rees slow, Oscar soft, Cooper lacking range, Rychart short, Darren too weak, etc.

Jason's glass has steadily been evaporating for many years - it's not even close to half-full. We're talking dregs here.

To be a useful 1 man in the NBL you have to be able to make good decisions. To be fair to Jason, there's not many decent Australian 1 men in the league at the moment - hence why Shane "You Miss 100% of the Shots You Don't Take" Heal was running around making crap decisions at the Olympics for us.

Brad Davidson is a player that JW could learn from - he's never going to be a world-beater but he can run a team by making smart decisions and getting the ball to the right player at the right time.

What were our alternatives? Do you think Brad Davidson would sign for what Jason Williams' would be offered?

If Maher's retirement is a couple of years away, who should they bring in to develop? Those are pretty huge shoes to fill.

I don't think Jason is that player, but I do think he covers their backup requirements at that position which a fresh rookie is unlikely to have done.

I finally thought that we were rid of Williams. His last season was by far his most frustrating, which has escalated every year since his inception. I think that he should go back to playing social basketball and dunking on people in mixed games. Seems to be what he is best at.

There has to be a better guard out there.

The question of alternatives needed to be asked three/four seasons ago, and not after JW has logged 7 seasons with the club and is showing no signs of developing.

Here some proposed alternatives (some retrospective, but all by no means definitive and listed as starting points for discussion only):
1) Thank JW for seven (that's 7) years of diligent service and advise him to watch the door on the way out
2) Forget sinking our money into an import guard who can't guard the fat cameraman filming foul shots on the baseline, and use it on a decent 4 or 5 spot import who is above 6 foot 9 in height
3) Get a quality local guard: Davidson, Mann, Lowery (hate him all you want but he's eleventy times more effective than J-Dog), even Travis Lane.
4) Develop young local guards who haven't logged 7 years of NBL service who actually might have potential but will need to be exposed to NBL level for us to really tell where they're at - this is now a tick, thanks to the Academy.

Making up a basketball team at any level is an inexact science at the best of times but the failed JW experiment adds further fuel to the argument that Phil Smyth - as knowledgeable about basketball as he is - has not been able to identify, attract, develop and sustain junior talent in his program.

Would you not say he has developed and sustained Oscar, Darren, and Jacob?

I do not think that J Will is a true 1 spot even in juniors he was a 2 and a short 3 spot.

He has had time to develope but needs confidence. Even after 100 games he still did not feel as though he truly belonged.

When he has the confidence he can hit outside consistantly , remember a game againt Tigers a few years back he brought us back from being 30 odd down to get within a few buckets.

As a coach do you go with what you know, being aware that your starter has a back injury that could flare up at any time, or risk it on a complete unknown.

J Will fills the back up guard job, just as Shanahan and Thompson have done. All these players on there night are good for 15 plus but regularly plod around being role players.

That is what JWill's job is, a role player, he is not out there to be a star, but to do a job so that the main guns can have a 5 minute rest

Avanti,

Oscar and Ng - definitely not.

Holmes - jury's still out.

Who has developed them then?
Is not putting them in the team developing them?
Jacob was in the Boomers squad for Athens, is this not being developed?

Agreed Kent, especially Jacob averaging 13 & 8 last season...Regal explain yourself please

I think the argument (one with which I tend to agree) is that some players will develop regardless of their coach, and that Jacob is one of those players.

If you put leftover pizza in my fridge and leave it there long enough, something will "develop".

Holmes is unquestionably getting better. What is his position at NBL level and beyond? Is he athletic enough to be a 3, or tall enough to be a 4? This is my main reason for the jury still being out.

His main improvement since joining the 6ers is his defence, a fact backed up with Goorjian - who makes no secret of picking his teams for defense first - putting him in the squad.

Forman: has he developed any back to the basket moves? Can he create his own shot, or even be able to put the ball on the floor and get past his defender? How is he going getting his shot off any quicker?

Ng: Looks for all the world like a basketballer, can create his own shot - but is he developing his ability to get to the ring, or to bulk up to avoid getting slayed on defense by anything resembling a screen?

If the answers to these questions are yes, then we're living in Development City and I'm happy.

Agreed but someone had to pick him in the aquad and then give him minutes on court....i would consider that coaching input or developing.

If Phil picked him and never let him get any minutes most of the sa crowd would be non the wiser as to his natural abilities.

Jacob has stepped up with the faith that the coaches has shown in him. Oscar is not far behind and i am expecting big things from him his year.

Oscar has go the skills and build to be a dominant player eg Garnett.

I would like to see the coaches putting more specialist skills coaching on place for him.

Natural ability is only good for so much.

Sure natural ability is good for so much but the coaches need soemthing to work with.

Duncan only has a few years under his belt as a ball player and his success is attributed to the lack of coaching he received growing up.

I guess this means that once his ability or potential was known then top flight coaching was able to show him what to do with his ability.

I see Farley is listed at 196cm and Holmes is 198cm you must be joking! I'd say Holmes would be a good 3inches taller than Farley but i guess all imports are listed alot taller than they really are.

A few people are doubting Farleys ability to score in the NBL but i'm certain he will score atleast 22ppg in the 36ers system. Lets not forget Farley destroyed in the recent summer league he had 37points in one game. With Maher healthy, Farley doing what he does and we hope the continued great form of Holmes.. i think the 36ers are in good shape this season.

Maher
Farley
Holmes
Rychart
Cooper

Williams
Ng
Nash
Forman
Rees

Does anyone feel that the bench may be a bit weak, considering Nash' back injury could flare up at any time and Rees is probably in his last season with no adequate replacement locally?

>"I think the argument (one with which I tend to agree) is that some players will develop regardless of their coach, and that Jacob is one of those players."


I agree with that also, although I reckon Jacobs improvement has been accelerated by playing for the Sixers. He has played 5 positions on the court, has been given heaps of court time, has been given defensive assignments, has been given offensive licence. Maybe it's through good management, maybe it's been forced through circumstances.

But the same could be said in reverse for other players. All the best coaching in the world won't make them a good player. Using the Jason Williams example to condemn Smyths ability doesn't seem reasonable to me.

But back on Holmes, there have been heaps of highly rated juniors that never reached the lofty expectations of their junior days. Aaron Trahair and Brad Sheridan are two off the top of my head.

cheers isaac thanks for that. i thought jason wiliams was still injured ?

Just a thought. With Scott Whitmore retired and everyone saying Oscar Forman needs work back-to-the-basket, why not pencil the Big Dog in for a few individual sessions? Couldn't do any harm.

After all the years of watching J-Will try to be an NBL player it is good to see that he will be the last guy off the bench, AGAIN!!!!

Anonymous. Campbell is to small for NBL! End-o-story!

I'll be interested to see who goes well at the 6ers camp!

Bags! Awarded the emmy for best cameo apperance in a comedy!

J Bags if you think J will is going to be last of the bench, think again. Who is going to back up mahersy and farley. Not ng.
LAY OFF the j will as he is going to prove all critics wrong this year.

Your right mate, 7 years obviously is not long enough to make his mark yet....

I reckon we've got a pretty good team and it is as deep as any, as with guys like Nash, Rees/Cooper and forman coming off the bench i think that is as good if not better than most teams and i reckon our startting 5 is among the best in the league.
With Falrey and Maher especially, sure some will say that farley is easily scouted and we relie on him and maher too much, but who managed to stop them from winning the title in 2002? no one! and the rest of the team is better than what they had before so i'm predicting a good year for the sixers