Last week

Predicting NBL Players - 3 categories

The Humphries/Hukporti discussion got me thinking.

NBL players could broadly be categorised into 3 groups

1. Fairly predictable

2. Moderately predictable

3. Highly variable

Highly predictable

- Years of experience and continuing with their current team

Moderately predictable and moderately variable

- Experienced imports with multiple years of pro experience whose numbers haven't hugely variable.

- Returning NBL players who previously played NBL and since had a stint overseas

- NBL players switching teams - eg someone like Blanchfield who has played for 5 NBL clubs, some where he’s been better than others

Unpredictable/Highly Variable

- Significant injury history in last 12 months

- Potential but very young

- First year pro

- Unusual inconsistency through their career

Let’s use this year’s big man cohort as an example

Highly predictable – DJ, Loe, Majok, Pineau, Peatling,

Moderately predictable- Thomas, Pardon, Williams, Soares, Caroline, Franks, Froling,

Harrison- put him in this group because he’s only 23

Pinder - significant jump in production last season, can it continue?

Unpredictable/Highly Variable

- 35 years old and hasn’t played for 12 mths due to unusual injury- Baynes

- Run of injuries over past couple of years- Humphries, Mathiang

- Massive potential and very young- Hukporti, Sotto

- Made All G League team. Played 23 games Euroleague last season, Then came off the bench in Puerto Rico, an inferior league to the NBL – Brantley

- First Year Pro - Manek

This isn’t a hard and fast rule. Someone from group 1 could have a career best year and significantly different performance than last year. They could also get injured. Someone from group 3 could have an identical season to last year.

But it’s about probability of variability. Group 3 is more difficult to predict, there’s a broader range of possibilities with a serious likelihood. Group 3 more likely to win the Most Improved Player, or alternatively be a disappointment.

You could expand the categories. Some may be more like 1.5 (Pinder or Harrison). Others might be more 2.5 (Manek).

Topic #50332 | Report this topic

Last week

Jordan Hunter's probably a 1.5 or a 2

The catalyst for this thought was United having 2 guys in the same position who are both pretty clearly in category 3

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