LV
Two years ago
Predicting NBL Players - 3 categories
The Humphries/Hukporti discussion got me thinking.
NBL players could broadly be categorised into 3 groups
1. Fairly predictable
2. Moderately predictable
3. Highly variable
Highly predictable
- Years of experience and continuing with their current team
Moderately predictable and moderately variable
- Experienced imports with multiple years of pro experience whose numbers haven't hugely variable.
- Returning NBL players who previously played NBL and since had a stint overseas
- NBL players switching teams - eg someone like Blanchfield who has played for 5 NBL clubs, some where he’s been better than others
Unpredictable/Highly Variable
- Significant injury history in last 12 months
- Potential but very young
- First year pro
- Unusual inconsistency through their career
Let’s use this year’s big man cohort as an example
Highly predictable – DJ, Loe, Majok, Pineau, Peatling,
Moderately predictable- Thomas, Pardon, Williams, Soares, Caroline, Franks, Froling,
Harrison- put him in this group because he’s only 23
Pinder - significant jump in production last season, can it continue?
Unpredictable/Highly Variable
- 35 years old and hasn’t played for 12 mths due to unusual injury- Baynes
- Run of injuries over past couple of years- Humphries, Mathiang
- Massive potential and very young- Hukporti, Sotto
- Made All G League team. Played 23 games Euroleague last season, Then came off the bench in Puerto Rico, an inferior league to the NBL – Brantley
- First Year Pro - Manek
This isn’t a hard and fast rule. Someone from group 1 could have a career best year and significantly different performance than last year. They could also get injured. Someone from group 3 could have an identical season to last year.
But it’s about probability of variability. Group 3 is more difficult to predict, there’s a broader range of possibilities with a serious likelihood. Group 3 more likely to win the Most Improved Player, or alternatively be a disappointment.
You could expand the categories. Some may be more like 1.5 (Pinder or Harrison). Others might be more 2.5 (Manek).
