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Dunk Basketball Uniforms   West Adelaide Bearcats Mid-Year Carnival - July 10-13, 2014

Muzz Buzz
Last year

#30916

what has to happen for the 36ers to make it?

There are 6 teams with 10 wins or less

36ers have won 7 and will need to win the last 5 to have any chance at all

We cant tie with Crocs or the Tigers as they own the series against us.

If we win all last 5 games we will own the Taipans and the Hawks

Ideally we want Melbourne to finish 3rd and for the Crocs to finish on a 11-17 record. Which would mean them going .500 for the rest of the year.

Melbourne have 7 games to go and they will get more than the 1 victory from that.

My brain hurts at this point but i think 36er fans will want us to win every game, have Crocs drop every game and Melbourne to win at least 14/15 games to finish 3rd for us to make it.

Hawks have 5 games left , 2 v 36ers, Melbourne, Townsville and Sydney once each. 36ers will want to win twice and for the Hawks to beat Townsville and lost to Melbourne. That would mean they would be 11 and 16 with the Sydney game a 50/50

Townsville has 6 games vs Cairns, 2 x Sydney, Wollongong, 2 x Melbourne

anyone see it differently?




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Isaac
Last year
11:57 22 Feb 13

Reply #405972

re: what has to happen for the 36ers to make it?

Have to win tonight. Then reconsider. If they lose, saves some time going through schedules and wondering. Every game, the equation gets a bit easier.


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pwned
Last year
12:29 22 Feb 13

Reply #405978

re: what has to happen for the 36ers to make it?

Or hope that the Hawks, Crocs and Kings are all over the salary cap too?


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Mutley
Last year
12:48 22 Feb 13

Reply #405983

re: what has to happen for the 36ers to make it?

I would suggest several planes would need to crash.


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Jack Toft
Last year
13:19 22 Feb 13

Reply #405986

re: what has to happen for the 36ers to make it?

Keep winning is the first, then hope results fall their way. Basically want Townsville to choke, Perth and NZ to dominate the rest.


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Anonymous
Last year
13:23 22 Feb 13

Reply #405987

re: what has to happen for the 36ers to make it?

Marty to be sacked as well!


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Anonymous
Last year
13:32 22 Feb 13

Reply #405989

re: what has to happen for the 36ers to make it?

Amazing there's still negativity about wanting to make the playoffs.


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Triton 95
Last year
14:12 22 Feb 13

Reply #405996

re: what has to happen for the 36ers to make it?

All the other teams would have to die.


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Muzz Buzz
Last year
14:28 22 Feb 13

Reply #405998

re: what has to happen for the 36ers to make it?

the positivity is over whelming, Cairns fans still have faith that they have a shot to make play offs


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Anonymous
Last year
15:12 22 Feb 13

Reply #406007

re: what has to happen for the 36ers to make it?

Hopefully we can scrape in, but there is too much relying on other teams W & L. Would love to see some finals action in Adelaide again but can't see it happening this season unfortunately.


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Mick
Last year
15:51 22 Feb 13

Reply #406010

re: what has to happen for the 36ers to make it?

Other than Wollongong, none of the teams outside of the top two should be overly proud of their efforts this year...


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KET
Last year
16:22 22 Feb 13

Reply #406013

re: what has to happen for the 36ers to make it?

All it takes is like four teams to be attacked by a bear and they're out, we'll be smoking to the championship


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Anonymous
Last year
17:35 22 Feb 13

Reply #406018

re: what has to happen for the 36ers to make it?

Muzz Buzz - If Adelaide lose tonight, we can't make it. Wollongong would then finish above us. So, we'd then need Townsville to beat Melbourne twice and Sydney once, which would put Townsville above us (i.e., 4 teams above us). If Townsville don't do that, then either Melbourne or Sydney would finish above us (again, 4 teams above us).

So, as Isaac says, tonight is a must win, if only to keep us entertained with working out all the possibilities.


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PeterJohn
Last year
17:36 22 Feb 13

Reply #406019

re: what has to happen for the 36ers to make it?

Sorry, that was me ^


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Anonymous
Last year
07:53 23 Feb 13

Reply #406114

re: what has to happen for the 36ers to make it?

Adelaide should have been a top 3 team. The putrid display we have witnessed, tells me the 36ers would just embarrass themselves against any playoff team above them. You know the well coached consistant teams that are fun to watch?


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PeterJohn
Last year
12:07 23 Feb 13

Reply #406147

re: what has to happen for the 36ers to make it?

Muzz Buzz - FWIW, there are still lots of scenarios in which the 36ers still make the finals. Too many to narrow down and discuss. I put together a model this morning that runs through them but it takes a while to run all the possibilities and I've yet to do that.


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PeterJohn
Last year
22:47 23 Feb 13

Reply #406225

re: what has to happen for the 36ers to make it?

MuzzBuzz - I can give you some conditions on the 36ers making the finals. My model has not been rigorously tested but it seems to be behaving correctly. Also, I didn't model points scored, only win-loss outcomes and head-to-head outcomes. Some of those head-to-head results can turn on points differences so are not bulletproof.

First - if Perth and NZ win all of their remaining games, the 36ers cannot make finals. Basically, it means that we end up 11-17 at the end of the season and any ties we get for 4th place on that record are not favourable for the 36ers.

However, if Perth or NZ lose the right games, the 36ers can make it.

36ers have to beat Wollongong in the last game of the season. There are no scenarios where we lose that game and still make the top 4.

We can drop next week's game against NZ but then we have to win all other games and other results have to go our way. One scenario has us losing to NZ, winning all other games and finishing in a 4 way tie for 4th with Wollongong, Cairns, Sydney. In that scenario, we get 4th place on the 4-way head to head result (all 4 on 11-17 records). There are a few other scenarios like that.

We can drop one of the games against Cairns but then have to win all other games and have other results go our way. We end up with scenarios like with the NZ game - lots of 4-way ties for 4th spot on 11-17, with 36ers prevailing on the head to head.






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