Herpies
Years ago

Who will have a better career?

Joe Smith or Andrew Bogut?

Joe Smith was drafted in 1995 with the number #1 pick... 10 years later Bogut was drafted with the number #1 pick.

Both players only achievements are making the rookie-first team, and being in the rookie/sophomore game.

Obviously Joe Smith started off his career very well and showed some promise, but went on a decline and dropped... but made a reputation of himself as a defender, whilst Andrew Bogut is more of an offensive player and known for his decent passing, but a very poor defender.

Smith is considered a draft bust, and it looks like Bogut is heading in the same direction...

thoughts?

Topic #18578 | Report this topic


LA Boy  
Years ago

Bogut isn't heading the same direction for the fact that his numbers are improving every year but with that said, he'll never be #1 pick material

Reply #218925 | Report this post


Big Marty  
Years ago

Bogut can easily have a stellar career... however he won't have it by staying with the bucks.

He needs to move to another teams with an established starting lineup. Personally I think Bogut would make a better PF than an Centre.

Reply #218928 | Report this post


Humpa  
Years ago

Joe Smith will have a better career.

Reply #218931 | Report this post


bolks  
Years ago

You don't like him, do you humpa.

Reply #218940 | Report this post


Kobe-for-MVP  
Years ago

boguts no bust - im guessing humpas got some hate

Reply #218941 | Report this post


Humpa  
Years ago

I'm a bucks fan, and want them to win a championship.

my favourite player is Michael Redd... but even i know Bogut can be better (offensively/defensively) and will never achieve anything in his career such as an All-star appearance and is a bust.

Reply #218947 | Report this post


Skin  
Years ago

He would be better if he put up some more shots, Seems he only gets 8-10 shots a game. His fault or not, i would guess not.

Reply #218950 | Report this post


Humpa  
Years ago

8-10 shots is the average for a Big man.

Reply #218956 | Report this post


3  
Years ago

Unless Bogut suddenly averages 25 points, 10 boards and 2 blocks in his prime, everyone is going to see him as a disappointment somehow. He was drafted on need, and might not turn out to be the best player from his draft class, but he was a smart pick at the time, as the Buck definitely needed a young talented Centre to build around for the future. Just because he's not dominating the league, it doesn't mean he wasn't the right choice for the Bucks that year. Not every #1 pick can turn out to be a superstar, but considering Bogut's impressive college credentials coming in, he had (and still has) as much chance as anyone in that draft class.

You can say something like "But they could have had Andrew Bynum!", and despite reportedly being a fast learner, he was still relatively young and an unknown commodity at the time. He was even considered to be a questionable pick for the Lakers late in the lottery. He's obviously turned out well, but who knows how he would have gone without Kareem and Phil Jackson's coaching and influence. I doubt that a 17-year-old Bynum being drafted #1 would have turned out well. The pressure of being the #1 pick, combined with learning the NBA game, and an average head coach in Terry Stotts, as well as being only 17, all would have combined to probably turn him into Kwame Brown or Michael Olowokandi 2.0. That is, no confidence in himself, and never turning into the player he should have become.

And there was no point in chosing Deron Williams, Chris Paul or Raymond Felton, because the Bucks already had Mo Williams and T.J. Ford at the PG spot. Marvin Williams would have been a bit of a head scratcher as well, because despite turning into a pretty good player, he really hasn't set the world on fire (possibly because of Atlanta's constant wealth of forwards), and he wasn't really what was desperately needed by the Bucks at the time.

If you're going purely by the PER (Player Efficiency Rating) stat over their careers (which is a decent indicator of a player's overall effectiveness in the minutes they play) then the 2005 Draft ranks like this so far:

#4 Chris Paul - 25.0
#30 David Lee - 18.1
#10 Andrew Bynum - 17.3
#3 Deron Williams - 17.1
#40 Monta Ellis - 16.3
#1 Andrew Bogut - 16.1
#17 Danny Granger - 15.8
#7 Charlie Villenueva 15.8
#45 Louis Williams - 15.8
#9 Ike Diogu - 15.7
#19 Hakim Warrick - 15.6
#26 Jason Maxiell - 15.5
#21 Nate Robinson - 14.9
#49 Andray Blatche - 14.6
#37 Ronny Turiaf - 14.5
#50 Ryan Gomes - 14.0
#33 Brandon Bass - 14.0
#8 Channing Frye - 13.9
#5 Raymond Felton 13.7
#22 Jarrett Jack - 13.2
#27 Linas Kleiza - 13.1
#23 Francisco Garcia - 12.9
#14 Rashard McCants - 12.6
#24 Luther Head - 12.6
#38 Travis Deiner - 12.5
#34 C.J. Miles - 12.0
#31 Salim Stoudamire - 11.8 (Out of the league)
#18 Gerald Green - 11.5
#16 Joey Graham - 11.3
#6 Martell Webster - 11.2
#25 Johan Petro - 10.6
#48 Mickael Gelebale - 10.0 (Out of the league)
#32 Daniel Ewing - 8.3 (Out of the league)
#15 Antoine Wright - 7.0
#53 Oriene Greene - 6.0 (Out of the league)

Anyone who hasn't played less than 100 games and/or 1,000 minutes isn't included there, because most of their their numbers tend to be a little bit unrealistically inflated. There's probably only a few players of interest below those benchmarks anyway:

#56 Amir Johnson - 17.5
#13 Sean May - 16.0
#55 Lawrence Roberts - 13.5
#36 Ersan Ilyatsova - 12.1
#20 Julius Hodge - 10.7

And comparing Bogut to #1 draft picks of the last 10 years, he's decent, but not spectacular:

2003. LeBron James - 25.7
2002. Yao Ming - 23.2
1999. Elton Brand - 22.4
2004. Dwight Howard - 20.7
2007. Greg Oden - 16.5
2005. Andrew Bogut - 16.1
2008. Derrick Rose - 16.1
2000. Kenyon Martin - 15.9
2001. Kwame Brown - 12.9
2006. Andrea Bargnani - 11.7

People can judge for themselves by the numbers, but I think for what was available at the time (in terms of player ability and knowledge of how they'd pan out), and for what the Bucks needed, Bogut was the right pick.

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3  
Years ago

But the all-important comparison I somehow forgot to include:

Andrew Bogut - 16.1 PER
Joe Smith - 15.5

It's not the be-all and end-all that stat, but I think they're pretty even in terms of impact. Whether that shows that Joe Smith is underrated, or Bogut is overrated, I'm not sure.

Reply #218961 | Report this post


KingJames  
Years ago

A well deserved ball by 3!

Reply #218968 | Report this post


???  
Years ago

So people are already talking about Oden as not producing and by your system he higher on the list than Bogut.

Reply #218973 | Report this post


STAT  
Years ago

??? like 3 said those stats only really tell the story after 100 games/1000 minutes and Oden hasnt reached either of those milestones yet.

Reply #218983 | Report this post


hillary  
Years ago

if they were to have this draft over i reckon the new top 5 would be a little different. Based on careers so far i reckon it would look a little something like this:

#1 (MIL)Chris Paul
#2 (ATL)Deron Williams
#3 (UTAH)Danny Granger
#4 (NOH)Andrew Bogut
#5 (CHA)Andrew Bynum
#6 (POR)David Lee
#7 (TOR)Monta Ellis
#8 (NYK)Marvin Williams
#9 (GSW)Louis Williams
#10 (LAL)Nate Robinson

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Kobe-for-MVP  
Years ago

pfft LA would never pick nate rob

Reply #219025 | Report this post


LA Boy  
Years ago

I'd go Bynum over Bogut. In fact read another article elsewhere saying Bogut should've gone 5th or 6th. Also, it really is no excuse Bogut doesn't have the number just because he don't have enough shots. If he's good enough, plays will be ran through him. Shaq, Amare and Yao all had plays ran for them in their rookie year and that's because they're good enough.

Reply #219042 | Report this post


bolks  
Years ago

I honestly don't think Bynum should be picked in front of David Lee. Yes, Bynum is younger and may show some potential, but look at this years stats.

Lee: 14.8 ppg (@ 57.3% fg & 73.5% ft) 10.9 rpg
1.9 apg 1.1 spg 0.3 bpg 1.97 TO 33.9 mpg

Bynum: 12.2 ppg (@ 53.7% fg & 65.8% ft) 8.2 rpg
1.6 apg 0.5 spg 1.9 bpg 1.71 TO 28.4 mpg

The only wins that Bynum has is the blocks and TO's. Yes Bynum is surrounded by players such as Kobe, Pau and LO, but Lee's still got to content with Al Harrington, Nate Rob (scoring), Q-Rich (when he's scoring) and Wilson Chandler.

Personally, i would take Lee.

Reply #219096 | Report this post


LA Boy  
Years ago

It's hard to even compare the other NY players against LA, they're pretty much in a different class...

Lee has more minutes and better flow to the game where Bynum gets taken off too much

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bolks  
Years ago

Yeah, but that may reflect who's the better player.

Reply #219184 | Report this post




 

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