RAV
Years ago
Predicting late-blooming All-Stars
ESPN Insider Write up on Predicting late-blooming All-Stars Below:
Enjoy.
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Players have the steepest pattern of improvement in their early 20s, so it's not surprising that the overriding trend among late-blooming All-Stars is that their upgrades tend to be subtle. A little uptick in volume here, better efficiency there and a little bit bigger role in the rotation, and you can see a young veteran rise above what seemed to be his established level of play. This also means it's not hard to identify possible late bloomers for the years to come, so I've created a list of 10. The one thing to keep in mind is that some of these players hit future ASC benchmarks because they are solid situational players who would suffer if given too big a role. However, some of these are the kind of players you want to gamble on if you're looking to convert a supporting player into a foundational player.
1. Wesley Matthews, Portland Trail Blazers
2013-14 WARP rank: 34
The only thing that keeps Matthews from leaping into the league's top 20 players is his below-average volume, as he sports a career usage rate of 19.1 percent. With the Portland offense understandably focused on Damian Lillard and LaMarcus Aldridge, that's not going to change. However, Matthews deserves credit for being an efficient supporting player, one who could post eye-popping averages should he ever be asked to carry a larger load.
Hawes
2. Spencer Hawes, Philadelphia 76ers
2013-14 WARP rank: 36
Hawes has a higher WARP this season than Roy Hibbert, but that tells you what's holding him back. Center is the one position valued more for defense than offense, and, whereas Hibbert might be headed for NBA Defensive Player of the Year honors, Hawes mans the middle for one of the league's worst defensive teams. If Hawes ever lands on a team that can build an above-average defense with him on the floor for 30-plus minutes per game, his offensive efficiency could make him a top-30 player.
Mills
3. Patty Mills, San Antonio Spurs
2013-14 WARP rank: 65
Mills ranks second on the Spurs in points per minute. Is he merely an excellent bench scorer, or a guy who could break out in a full-time role? It's not going to happen in San Antonio, but you'd like to see Mills get a shot at becoming something more than instant offense.
Collison
4. Darren Collison, Los Angeles Clippers
2013-14 WARP rank: 75
Collison has excelled in his role with the Clippers, but to me this is as valuable as he's likely to get. It's only by reining in his game that he's been able to become so efficient.
Chalmers
5. Mario Chalmers, Miami Heat
2013-14 WARP rank: 84
If you feel as if Chalmers' sterling efficiency numbers are a product of his superstar teammates, I'd have to agree with you. Still, he doesn't get enough credit for the job he does for the Heat.
Hill
6. Jordan Hill, Los Angeles Lakers
2013-14 WARP rank: 87
Sometimes rebounding specialists and defenders like Dennis Rodman become top-30 players without occupying a big role on offense, and, if Hill's defense ever justifies big-time minutes, he might be better than you think. Players like that are also often slow to earn recognition.
Augustin
7. D.J. Augustin, Chicago Bulls
2013-14 WARP rank: 93
Tom Thibodeau has reminded us that, if used a certain way, Augustin can be a highly impactful player. Could he ascend to All-Star-caliber status? Seems unlikely, but unsung guards such as Dana Barros, Darrell Armstrong, Rafer Alston and Mike James have shown that it can happen.
Wright
8. Brandan Wright, Dallas Mavericks
2013-14 WARP rank: 98
Wright needs to prove he can stay healthy before ever being considered for a big-minute role, but the guy has a 24.2 PER this season.
Green
9. Danny Green, San Antonio Spurs
2013-14 WARP rank: 99
Green's 2013-14 value numbers have been boosted by what appears to be a career season on the defensive end. To be an All-Star-caliber player, he'd have to retain his shooting efficiency with a higher volume. We've seen he tends to struggle with that.
Blair
10. DeJuan Blair, Dallas Mavericks
2013-14 WARP rank: 101
Blair is in a very similar situation to Hill in that he'd need to bolster his reputation as a defender to worm his way into the big-minute role that could result in All-Star-caliber production. Also, like Hill, he has proved to be really valuable in the role he already has established for himself.
