skip
Years ago

The run to the playoffs

Who makes and who misses out on the playoffs. This is what I have come up with.

Cairns - 18 wins, 6 losses
To come – Perth (A), Sydney (A), Melbourne (H), New Zealand (A)
I say they go 3 and 1, leaving them on 21 wins and 7 losses

New Zealand – 18 wins, 6 losses
To come – Townsville (A), Adelaide (H), Perth (A), Cairns (H)
I say they go 2 and 2, leaving them on 20 wins and 8 losses

Perth – 14 wins, 10 losses
To come - Cairns (H), New Zealand (H), Adelaide (A), Townsville (H)
I say they go 2 and 2, leaving them on 16 wins and 12 losses

Adelaide – 13 wins, 11 losses
To come – Sydney (H), New Zealand (A), Perth (H), Wollongong (A)
I say the also go 2 and 2, leaving them on 15 wins and 13 losses

Melbourne – 11 wins, 12 losses
To come – Wollongong (H), Cairns (A), Townsville (A), Sydney (A), Sydney (H)
I say they go 3 and 2, leaving them on 14 wins and 14 losses


So the ladder order stays the same in my opinion. From there, I have a strong feeling that both Adelaide and Perth manage to knock off Cairns and New Zealand.

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Mick  
Years ago

Melbourne the easiest run home there. They could very feasibly go 4-1.

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Anonymous  
Years ago

^ + 1 Mick. Regardless of their extremely poor last 2 games I see Melbourne going 4 and 1 and equalling Adelaide.

Conversely Perth could easily go 1 and 3.

Its possible that Adelaide finish 3rd going 2 and 2 and Melbourne pip Perth for 4th on head to head.

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skip  
Years ago

Adelaide could easily go 3 and 1 too, I'm just never too confident.

Reply #512901 | Report this post


Tornado  
Years ago

Using your format Skip, here are my predictions;

Cairns - 18 wins, 6 losses
To come - Perth (A), Sydney (A), Melbourne (H), New Zealand (A)
Wins: Sydney & Melbourne
I say they go 2 and 2, leaving them on 20 wins and 8 losses

New Zealand – 18 wins, 6 losses
To come – Townsville (A), Adelaide (H), Perth (A), Cairns (H)
Wins: Townsville, Adelaide & Cairns
I say they go 3 and 1, leaving them on 21 wins and 7 losses

Perth – 14 wins, 10 losses
To come - Cairns (H), New Zealand (H), Adelaide (A), Townsville (H)
Wins: Cairns, New Zealand & Townsville
I say they go 3 and 1, leaving them on 17 wins and 11 losses

Adelaide – 13 wins, 11 losses
To come – Sydney (H), New Zealand (A), Perth (H), Wollongong (A)
Wins: Sydney, Perth & Wollongong
I say they also go 3 and 1, leaving them on 16 wins and 12 losses

Melbourne – 11 wins, 12 losses
To come – Wollongong (H), Cairns (A), Townsville (A), Sydney (A), Sydney (H)
Wins: Sydney & Sydney
I say they go 2 and 3, leaving them on 13 wins and 15 losses

Top 4 in order;
1. NZ
2. Cairns
3. Perth
4. Adelaide

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alexkrad  
Years ago

Pretty spot on, I think NZ might go 3-1 though. What's the split like for them and Cairns? havn't really been paying attention to that.

I also think Adelaide will drop one between now and end of the season, but really wouldn't be surprised if they didn't.

If Perth and Adelaide tie, ie Adelaide beat Perth, then they need to win by 26 I think to get the split on Perth.

If its a 3 way tie;

Perth beat Adelaide:
Perth third, Melbourne fourth, Adelaide fifth.

Adelaide beat Perth by 34 or less:
Melbourne third, Perth fourth, Adelaide fifth.

Adelaide beat Perth by 35 or more:
Melbourne third, Adelaide fourth, Perth fifth.

If Gleeson has any coaching credibility that Perth @ Adelaide game will be a grind fest from the start.

I think Skip's right though and Melbourne even with the nicest schedule will drop at least one they shouldn't and find them selves fifth anyway.

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Observer  
Years ago

Perth to go 1-3
Adelaide to go 3-1


NZ
Cairns
Adelaide
Perth/MELB

NZ ADEL Grand Final

Perth Melb out of form so one of them will finish 4th
Adelaide is the team on form atm see how they go when they test NZ

Reply #512908 | Report this post


Isaac  
Years ago

If the Hawks can get Melbourne in Melbourne, that will put a lot of pressure on United obviously. The picture will get a little clearer after this round.

Adelaide have what should be a gimme but as Townsville showed on Sunday, could be a danger game. If Perth don't get Cairns, pressure on them too.

Last two games are less relevant to which teams make up the numbers.

Reply #512914 | Report this post


Mick  
Years ago

Whichever way it turns out, it's good to see an NBL season that isn't a two horse race for a change.

Reply #512915 | Report this post


Jack Toft  
Years ago

The ladder will get down to the final round. If you support a club get to the games to support them because it might just be the edge they need.

The Sixers must be aiming for a sellout for both remaining home games.

Memo to Dean: half an hour before start throw the doors open $20 Adult $50 family. Get one of the food and beverage sponsors on board with a free drink or ice cream.

Reply #512918 | Report this post


Grovermister  
Years ago

Jack Toft...

have you emailed Dean about your ideas?

they are always open to suggestions...

$10 tickets has worked wonders...

can not remember the last time they have had over 6k on a sunday... even last year they struggled to get 5 on sunday afternoon games...

Very approachable about any ideas you may have....

in regards to the original question...

Cairns/New Zealand/Adelaide/Melb... perth to drop out...

Reply #512926 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Years ago

Really? A Club GM needs a fan to prompt him to offer lower ticket specials with a free drink thrown in? Great club!

Reply #512935 | Report this post


Spinner  
Years ago

The GM doesn't read this site by the way. Better email him direct.

Reply #512937 | Report this post


Nathan of Perth  
Years ago

With Matty Knight back, I feel like we should pick up at least two of the coming set of games. Three of them are at home and we're always a good chance of knocking off anyone at home (yes, yes, cheating/flopping/ref intimidation/feral crowd, blah blah).

Winning the game away to Adelaide would just about nail it in, but would be a supremely hard game to win at this stage (although if Knight and Redhage are both back up to speed post-injury/virus, and Damo is still scoring, we could repeat the dose from earlier this year).

Being on 14 wins already definitely helps, we have a foot in the door.

The advantage Melbourne gained themselves by winning in Perth was rather offset by losses to Townsville at home and Hawks away. Could be very painful in the final reckoning.

Reply #512944 | Report this post


Grovermister  
Years ago

a Good GM takes into account what the fans would like and considers all options accordingly...

as a GM wouldnt you want to have that open door relationship with your fans? Find out what they feel would bring them trhough the door game after game season after season

Just saying... rather a club that cares about its fans than a corporate juggernaut that does not care about its fans and does what ever it wants... whether succesfull or not...

Reply #512950 | Report this post


Dazz  
Years ago

It's going to depend if Sydney are allowed to fill their vacancies, and/or how they finish out the season.

I most agree with Skip's analysis, except if Sydney fall over I can see MU going 4-1 and making the finals.

Reply #512953 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Years ago

alexkrad: "Pretty spot on, I think NZ might go 3-1 though. What's the split like for them and Cairns? havn't really been paying attention to that."

Cairns are currently up 2-1 over NZ, Taipans won game one by 9, Breakers won game two by 8 and then Taipans won game three by 24 for a +25 head to head.

Reply #512965 | Report this post


Kobe24  
Years ago

Any smart open minded individual will always be open to ideas. So yes it is a great club, as Ive heard Dean is always open to ideas. He also managed to turn DQ and BJ into Motum and DJ, so he's doing ok.

Reply #512966 | Report this post


Nathan of Perth  
Years ago

Going to be tricky for NZ to win the split then, but if they win that 4th game it probably makes the split a moot point anyway. They've each won away to each other already, so it may decide the title.

Reply #512967 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Years ago

The point is that this specific idea should already be something the GM is on top of, not waiting for a prompt from a fan. We're not talking anything ground-breaking here - lower prices and throw in a free drink. Is Dean not already aware of such marketing opportunities?

Reply #512969 | Report this post


cats 4 life  
Years ago

No pressure on Perth other than go make it 29yrs in a row, pressure would be off and then they might play more loosely. It will be cairns or the breakers that have to win, I'll throw Adelaide on there to because they got motum and dj.

Perth is the dark horse if they get there, which I think they will. Mu, will miss out. Any thing on the back injury? Walker?

Still can't go past perth if everyone steps up when it counts. Same time would be good to see cairns at the end.

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Matthew  
Years ago

Personally I hope Cairns win. I think it would be great to see them with a Trophy.

Reply #512974 | Report this post


Darryl  
Years ago

I think it will be
1. Nzl
2 . Cairns
3 . Adelaide
4 . Perth

Wouldn't mind Cairns getting it but think Nzl will beat Adelaide in grand final

Reply #512975 | Report this post


Isaac  
Years ago

Whichever way it turns out, it's good to see an NBL season that isn't a two horse race for a change.
I was thinking the same. Four teams (five if Melbourne play to their potential) are legitimate threats rather than dark horse options.

With Knight and Hire back, Perth are as tough as ever. And Adelaide would be worrying teams too.

Reply #512976 | Report this post


koberulz  
Years ago

It's also nice to see .500 teams missing the playoffs (Melbourne likely to go 14-14 and finish 5th), instead of everyone outside the top two having a losing record. Even if there are really only two or three clear championship contenders (Perth aren't going to win a three-game series the way they're going, and Melbourne are too inconsistent to do it twice).

Reply #512981 | Report this post


cats 4 life  
Years ago

Once playoffs start it's a knew season and I reckon perth is the only team in the four that has played the worst over the course of the year.

If and that is a big if! They click at the right time they can beat any one. They and united were tipped to be in the gf.

Ross out, other than that 8 players played on the championship together.

Will be interesting how cairns will handle the pressure and nz staying out of foul trouble the way the last few games gave been called. Adelaide's last four games have been against the lower end of the table.

Perth have had a tough stretch playing cairns 3, nz 2, which shot and good in some ways.

Reply #512988 | Report this post


Dazz  
Years ago

It will also depend on the exact finishing order. Depending on who's 1st & 2nd, and whether the Cats finish 3rd or 4th. I can potentially see a SF series against Cairns going either way, but even at their best (for this season) I can't see them winning in NZ.

Reply #513004 | Report this post


Wilson Sting  
Years ago

"I reckon perth is the only team in the four that has played the worst over the course of the year."

I'm pretty sure Adelaide's played their worst for the year with their 7 game streak.

I don't think Perth's been that bad over the course of the year, just the last few weeks. Their record is still better than 5/8 teams.

Reply #513006 | Report this post


KET  
Years ago

FIRST

Cairns - 18 wins, 6 losses
To come - Perth (A), Sydney (A), Melbourne (H), New Zealand (A)

vs Perth - Lose
vs Sydney - Win
vs Melbourne - Lose
vs NZ - Win

20 Wins, 8 Losses

SECOND

New Zealand – 18 wins, 6 losses
To come – Townsville (A), Adelaide (H), Perth (A), Cairns (H)


vs Townsville - Win
vs Adelaide - Win
vs Perth - Lose
vs Cairns - Lose

20 Wins, 8 Losses

THIRD

Perth – 14 wins, 10 losses
To come - Cairns (H), New Zealand (H), Adelaide (A), Townsville (H)

vs Cairns - Win
vs NZ - Win
vs Adelaide - Lose
vs Townsville - Win


17 Wins, 11 Losses

FOURTH

Melbourne – 11 wins, 12 losses
To come – Wollongong (H), Cairns (A), Townsville (A), Sydney (A), Sydney (H)

vs Wollongong - Win
vs Cairns - Lose
vs Townsville - Win
vs Sydney - Win
vs Sydney - Win

15 Wins, 13 Losses

MISSING PLAYOFFS

Adelaide – 13 wins, 11 losses
To come – Sydney (H), New Zealand (A), Perth (H), Wollongong (A)

vs Sydney - Lose
vs NZ - Lose
vs Perth - Win
vs Wollongong - Win

15 Wins, 13 Losses

Reply #513217 | Report this post


Anon  
Years ago

Looking forward to analysing this and how wrong it will be !!!

Reply #513261 | Report this post


Jerry Denard Jr  
Years ago

So were do the teams sit now?

UnUnited to miss, Adelaide to make it?

Reply #514094 | Report this post




 

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