Yeah, NZ seem to have imploded, not sure what's going there, but announcing your coach is leaving tends to upset things. Whilst at the same time Randle is dragging his team into contention.

1st place could well come down to this Friday's game between Perth & MU. (Assuming everything else goes according to plan.) Perth already has the points split, so just needs a win to take the series. Both teams are unstoppable at home, so I'd expect a Perth victory.

The rest of 4 will be shaped by the Hawks v 6's series. They play twice this week, and then again in a couple of weeks.

The great thing about the Cats this season, is that an injury to Knight or Redhage is nolonger season over. With their bogie-team now slipping out of contention, things are looking good.

But lets not overlook MU. If they finish top-2, then their home "advantage" should get them to the finals, and the Cats don't want to face Larry's boys in the GF. Fans, and institutional memory, haven't forgotten 1993.

These last 3 rounds are going to be awesome and interesting. The top 5 teams play each other 8 times heading into the finals. The way i see it the playoffs start here. I cant remember a time when the top 4 was so tight.

Should be a big finish.
United easily the roughest run home.
Perth should finish top.

Perth should take it out this season.

Isn't it still mathematically possible for the Breakers to get into the 4?

Adelaide have to play Illawarra 3 times, with 2 this round. If Penney is playing, they could easily drop both. In the same round, NZ get to play Townsville in Auckland, which is the ideal chance to get their act together and get back on the rails.

In short, Adelaide may well be only a win ahead of NZ after this round. Given the subsequent games for each team, the game between them on 3 February is likely to determine 4th place. Should be a cracker. Given it'll be in Adelaide, Adelaide currently have the split (2-1 and +15 points), odds favour Adelaide over NZ for 4th. I reckon the two losses for NZ in this round have killed their finals' hopes.

Adelaide are still one game behind NZ but two wins clear atm,this round when Adelaide play Illawarra awayand then home,if Adelaide win both,Melbourne lose and NZ win,would mean NZ would need to win all their games to win.We will know more after this round.

Perth has
Cairn H
Melbourne H
Sydney H
Sydney A
Adelaide H

They really should win all these games. They will finish on top.I had a Perth V Hawks GF since the preseason and I see no reason to change my tip as I see the Hawks finishing second and the United 3. Adelaide should get the 4th spot. I actually had the Hawks wining it all, but Perth's last two games have been pretty great and with HCA it will be hard to tip against them.

With Adelaide playing Illawarra 3 times the door could be ajar. Cairns has games against teams where they might start outsiders but where they will favour themselves (Perth, NZ) and one against Townsville.

And of course, you can never write NZ off.

After watching the last fortnight of the BBL, and the renaissance of the Stars and Thunder from the positions they were in, I've been reminded that anything can happen in sport.

I'm not going to hold my breath and imo they (NZ Breakers) don't deserve to make it with their recent performances.

Yeah im comfortable writing NZ off at this stage. Adelaide will be making up the numbers in the playoffs, but they should get there from here.

I'm always amused by how fickle sports fans can be.

"Recent performances" are not always a good guide.

Don't you recall Melbourne getting horribly thumped by Sydney on their own court and looking absolutely terrible, and then regrouping to get wins against Perth, Illawarra, and smashing Cairns off the court twice in a row?

This happened over the past few weeks. And yet you want to write off the mighty NZ Breakers.

Such short memories we have.

Have to agree with you LV, you can't write any team off no matter what the situation is, how could you forget Adelaide's big comeback against Sydney, Townsville winning against Perth and Melbourne both away?! Anything is possible in this league this season!

It's not a question of "writing off" NZ per sae. It's simply that they have fallen out off the 4, by 2~3 games, and they seem to be going through some kind of implosion both on and off court. Hard to see them clawing back enough wins, especially with the form of Randle.

Adelaide have a very tough run home. It wouldn't surprise at all if they won only 1 or 2 out of 6.

Adelaide:

@ Hawks
vs Hawks
vs Breakers
@ Taipans
@ Hawks
@ Wildcats

Yeah that is not an easy run home.

yes, a tough run home. However, Adelaide only need to win two of those games to guarantee 4th - Cairns and NZ. They do that, they're in the playoffs.

On current form, I wouldnt be surprised to see Adelaide finish second, especially if Penney isnt back this week.

Yeah, that is true PeterJohn- NZ would need to beat Adelaide in Adelaide by 15 or 16 points to get the split. So if Adelaide beat NZ and Cairns only- that gets them to 15 wins, meaning the most NZ could get would be 15 and Adelaide gets the split.

And obviously if Penney's out that is a massive favour for the 36ers this week.

So it is a long shot, but my point was more about NZ- they could very easily bounce back and win their last 5 in a row. If they can recapture their early season form then anything could happen. Sometimes it only takes one game for everything to change and confidence to return.

LV - agree re NZ.

paul - agree that Penney being out changes the complexion significantly. I see Adelaide going 3-3 at best with Penney in, but capable of going 5-1 if Penney is out for all 3 games.

That said, I think Cairns should start favourites to beat Adelaide in Cairns, as well. Hopefully not by 12 or more points though.