Aussie Basketball Travellers Dunk Basketball Uniforms

Advertising spot currently available.
Minimum three month period (1.2+ million page views, 92% Australian).
Email [email protected] for rates and options.

AD: Office space available in Adelaide CBD @ 313 Halifax St;
Suit creatives; freelance desks or space for 2-4 person business. More info

LV
Last year

#38962

Finals Conspiracies

Illawarra has nothing to play for tomorrow night, except for locking in a match up they don't want (Playing vs Perth). Illawarra can’t miss out on the top 4 because their worst possible result is the 16 win mini pool which would see NZ miss out. Illawarra would much rather finish 4th and play Melbourne- who they’ve done well against this season when they had their full team.

So- they throw the game.

Perth faces the possibility- on Sunday night- of facing Adelaide in the semis if they lose to Adelaide (Because Adelaide have the split on Illawarra and would finish 3rd) or beating the 36ers and playing Illawarra.

This puts Perth in an enviable position because they’ve dominated both Illawarra and Adelaide this season. But losing to Adelaide and letting Adelaide finish 3rd and Illawarra 4th has extra benefits:

- Ensures NZ misses out. Perth would not want to play NZ in the GF.
- Allows Perth to try different matchups and strategies directly before the series. Adelaide won’t have that benefit because they will be purely focused on winning.
- A 36ers team with a recovering Randle is a lesser beast than a full strength Illawarra.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Rob Beveridge is making a few sneaky phone calls to some of his old protégé’s this week, or vice versa. This works for both Illawarra and Perth, and all that needs to happen is that they both throw their games this weekend.

(If I remember correctly, the 16 win mini pool would still have Adelaide finishing 3rd, because the 5-3, 5-3 mini mini pool would arise between Adelaide and Illawarra. Because theyd both be 5-3 in the series including NZ. Adelaide then wins the head to head vs Illawarra. So if Adelaide wins both they should get 3rd spot regardless of what happens in the two Melbourne vs NZ games. But I’d just want someone to confirm that this is how the mini pool works).

Report this topic


 

Anonymous
Last year
14:46 11 Feb 16

Reply #577082

re: Finals Conspiracies

Yes Adelaide can still get 3rd under that scenario.


Report this post



Isaac
Last year
14:50 11 Feb 16

Reply #577085

re: Finals Conspiracies

I strongly doubt that anyone is making calls about this, but would be making independent decisions.

As soon as I saw the article about Bevo and the Hawks going out and out to win the Adelaide game, I thought "They're not really going to try." No inside knowledge of any sort but as you said, it makes sense for them to try and tackle Melbourne first.

Realistically, either top two side is going to trouble Adelaide and Illawarra (who don't have a great match up for Warrick). Only NZ would go into games against Perth and Melbourne with some confidence: good scoring options, finals pedigree, great defenders at at least three positions.


Report this post



LV
Last year
14:51 11 Feb 16

Reply #577086

re: Finals Conspiracies

Right- so Adelaide will get 3rd spot if they win both, regardless of whether its Ade-Ill-NZ all 16 wins, or Ade-Ill 16 wins and NZ less than 16 wins?

In that case my conspiracy makes perfect sense. Illawarra wants to avoid Perth and would much rather play Melbourne, Perth would rather play Adelaide and Perth would love it if NZ were out of the picture.

So Illawarra and Perth both lose, and NZ's out.


Report this post



snooch
Last year
14:57 11 Feb 16

Reply #577089

re: Finals Conspiracies

I honestly think every team believes it can beat every other team.
You don't mess with your form at this stage of the season.


Report this post



paul
Last year
14:57 11 Feb 16

Reply #577091

re: Finals Conspiracies

These sorts of decisions are made regularly in European and international hoops, and I suspect we've already seen one this round that indicates Perth v Illawarra is the preferred match up out west.

Very interested to see how the round plays out though, hopefully there is still some suspense left on Sunday.


Report this post



Supernintendo Chalmers
Last year
14:59 11 Feb 16

Reply #577092

re: Finals Conspiracies

Except for the Boomers. The Boomers NEVER rest players to get a favourable match-up...


Report this post



Luuuc
Last year
15:01 11 Feb 16

Reply #577093

re: Finals Conspiracies

Adelaide paying $3.55 for a win vs hawks and $3.45 for a win vs Cats.
Just FYI


Report this post



Anonymous
Last year
15:05 11 Feb 16

Reply #577096

re: Finals Conspiracies

Adelaide win mini league against Illawarra if tied on record (assuming they win tomorrow).

They also win mini league against both Illawarra & NZ if all three are tied.

The only exception is if Adelaide are ONLY tied with NZ, then NZ qualify.


Report this post



LV
Last year
15:08 11 Feb 16

Reply #577097

re: Finals Conspiracies

Australia threw the game vs Angola in the 2014 world championships. (Legal disclaimer: "Threw the game" is to be interpreted as “Tried their best and lost the game”).

If it happens in the World Championships, it can happen in the NBL. Bevo and Gleeson are very shrewd operators. They know what's best for themselves and their teams.

And- no collusion is even necessary. Once Perth sees Adelaide win on Friday night, they’ll know what to do.


Report this post



Very Old
Last year
15:09 11 Feb 16

Reply #577099

re: Finals Conspiracies

and Italy just lucked a 7 point win against Cuba . This type of match fixing was old 36 years ago


Report this post



Supernintendo Chalmers
Last year
15:13 11 Feb 16

Reply #577101

re: Finals Conspiracies

Bevo's only protege who coaches an NBL side is Shawn Dennis so its ok if he calls him this week.


Report this post



Anonymous
Last year
15:14 11 Feb 16

Reply #577102

re: Finals Conspiracies

Boomers showed how n00b Australia are at match fixing. Fifty years behind but you learn from your mistakes so here's to next time. *wink*


Report this post



kingpodge
Last year
15:45 11 Feb 16

Reply #577108

re: Finals Conspiracies

I don't think there is a fav matchup, all the top 4 teams can beat each other on any given night (hell that's the case for the top 6).

I'd be resting my injury prone players though, I was surprised to see Knight play last night..


Report this post



Anonymous
Last year
15:48 11 Feb 16

Reply #577109

re: Finals Conspiracies

We'll see if Bevo has Larry Davidson playing the point late in the 4th to see if this has any validity.


Report this post



Anonymous
Last year
16:07 11 Feb 16

Reply #577114

re: Finals Conspiracies

"all the top 4 teams can beat each other on any given night (hell that's the case for the top 6)."

Except Cairns on the road.


Report this post



kingpodge
Last year
16:10 11 Feb 16

Reply #577116

re: Finals Conspiracies

another outstanding post anon.


Report this post



Wwizard
Last year
16:20 11 Feb 16

Reply #577122

re: Finals Conspiracies

while snooch makes a valid point; i wonder if that was the case with kings v wildcats the other night. sydney won by how much?

its a dangerous proposition to lose games at the death knell of a season prior to playoffs


Report this post



Isaac
Last year
16:47 11 Feb 16

Reply #577146

re: Finals Conspiracies

I doubt it's an issue when you have a very experienced team culture. I'd say any coach of Perth could switch on the core of that team when required.


Report this post



snooch
Last year
16:53 11 Feb 16

Reply #577151

re: Finals Conspiracies

I agree Isaac, although potentially losing HCA right throughout the playoffs could come back to bite you. I know if I was coaching Perth I'd want that crowd behind me as much as I possibly could!

That said, resting those guys might end up being a smart move because they have legitimate niggles.


Report this post



Anonymous
Last year
16:56 11 Feb 16

Reply #577154

re: Finals Conspiracies

I'm surprised Wildcats didn't go for it. Having HCA throughout is the eventual champion in probably 85% of the playoffs since 2000.


Report this post



Luuuc
Last year
17:01 11 Feb 16

Reply #577160

re: Finals Conspiracies

Cats also understand better than most teams how costly it can be to have players not fit for a playoff campaign.
I don't think there's a universal right & wrong answer, but I've got no doubt that the 4 Cats players rested had actual injury issues. As valuable as HCA is, I'm happy with the direction we chose.


Report this post



Anonymous
Last year
17:03 11 Feb 16

Reply #577163

re: Finals Conspiracies

Three of the four would be offended at being called a monkey.


Report this post



koberulz
Last year
17:04 11 Feb 16

Reply #577165

re: Finals Conspiracies

I agree Isaac, although potentially losing HCA right throughout the playoffs could come back to bite you. I know if I was coaching Perth I'd want that crowd behind me as much as I possibly could!
To be fair, the Wildcats lose way more often than they win in higher-attended home games.


Report this post



LV
Last year
17:14 11 Feb 16

Reply #577168

re: Finals Conspiracies

Perth's team and coaches probably think that the Hawks and NZ stand a roughly equal chance of knocking Melbourne over. That's what I would have thought. So it doesnt really matter to them who Melbourne plays in the semi.

And the Cats would fancy their chances of beating either Illawarra or Adelaide (7 from 7 against those two).

But here's the big incentive: Cats definitely have an incentive to boot NZ out of the playoffs. Given the playoffs history, and the results this season where NZ got the better of them.


Report this post



LV
Last year
17:16 11 Feb 16

Reply #577171

re: Finals Conspiracies

But I suppose point 1 will depend on this weekend. If they watch the NZ vs MU matches and decide MU will struggle there, then Perth may try to beat Adelaide to set up that matchup.

Because Perth's number one incentive would be avoiding MU and retaining home court advantage in any other matchup.


Report this post



Supernintendo Chalmers
Last year
17:16 11 Feb 16

Reply #577173

re: Finals Conspiracies

Do you think Melbourne want to face NZ in the first round?


Report this post



Supernintendo Chalmers
Last year
17:18 11 Feb 16

Reply #577175

re: Finals Conspiracies

Perth's number one incentive is to have a full strength team going in to the playoffs.


Report this post



LV
Last year
17:23 11 Feb 16

Reply #577178

re: Finals Conspiracies

At this point, Melbourne have struggled against both NZ and Illawarra (In the 2 matches where Illawarra were at full strength).

But Melbourne will have home court advantage in either case. It's apples and oranges because they've only played NZ twice. So I doubt MU would have a strong preference- pending this weekend's results. NZ certainly has size and power over them whereas Illawarra is a more like for like matchup. But MU has beaten Perth 3 times, and MU smashed Cairns the last two- so MU has form on the board against the bigger, powerful teams as well.

I agree that the incentive is to be healthy. But if you aren't carrying injuries (Who knows if MU is or not?), then it's a question of the "Do you mess with form?"thing or not. I don't really have a strong view there


Report this post



Thunder Jam
Last year
18:10 11 Feb 16

Reply #577185

re: Finals Conspiracies

Breakers are out in straight games whoever they play. Be fair dinkum,they aren't playing well enough.


Report this post



Luuuc
Last year
18:11 11 Feb 16

Reply #577186

re: Finals Conspiracies

MU don't need to be too concerned with the other teams' positions. Their #1 goal at this point should be to do whatever they can to prevent anyone other than LK from owning the league before the GF series is over :p


Report this post



koberulz
Last year
18:14 11 Feb 16

Reply #577189

re: Finals Conspiracies

NZ were pretty average coming into the playoffs last season and never looked like losing a game, much less a series.


Report this post



Dazz
Last year
18:46 11 Feb 16

Reply #577192

re: Finals Conspiracies

So, you're saying Hawks would rather play MU?
Only problem with this is that its not up to them.
At best, they throw the game against Adelaide, and it then comes down to the Perth v Adelaide game.
Keep in mind that it is the final game, so all results are known.
So, if everything goes according to your plan, Perth have the choice of playing to win, and facing the team they have beaten 4 times,
or losing to Adelaide so they can play them again in the SF?


Report this post



Jack Toft
Last year
21:40 11 Feb 16

Reply #577204

re: Finals Conspiracies

I like a tin foil hat like the rest of everyone, but it's not like teams are manufacturing injuries and resting, for example, four players in a game and then playing their ABL quality second team.......


Report this post



Keany
Last year
22:26 11 Feb 16

Reply #577211

re: Finals Conspiracies

Just waiting for the MU cheating at home thing to come up soon


Report this post



Marcus Camby
Last year
00:13 12 Feb 16

Reply #577216

re: Finals Conspiracies

@Dazz..

If it came down to Sundays game and the Cats had the 'option' of sending either Hawks or Sixers to MU, wouldn't they want to send Hawks to MU?


Report this post



Anonymous
Last year
01:31 12 Feb 16

Reply #577219

re: Finals Conspiracies

Irrelevant. LK owns the league therefore his team wins the championship. Top seed secured after some interesting regular season results so nearly there.


Report this post





 

Reply to this topic

Name Email

Random name suggestion for anonymous posters: Hopscotch 96

Title
Rules: You must read the Terms of Use. No spam, no offensive material, no sniping at other clubs, no 'who cares?'-type comments, no naming or bashing under 18 players. Learn how to embed YouTube videos or tweets
Message

Please proof-read your post before submitting as you will not be able to edit it afterwards.
 


Liam Flynn - basketball coaching and consulting

Recent Posts

.

.


An Australian basketball forum covering NBL, WNBL, ABL, Juniors plus NBA, WNBA, NZ, Europe, etc | Forum time is: 5:22 am, Mon 24 Apr 2017 | Posts: 655,271 | Last 7 days: 693