ME
Years ago

Boomers crossover opponent impossible to predict

At the moment the top 3 of Group B is wide open, with Spain currently sitting 3rd in their group looking menacing to Australia who are second.

At the moment Argentina are 3/1 with Lithuania, Spain and Croatia are 2/2, and Brazil and Nigeria are 1/3.

For Australia to escape Spain we need Argentina to beat Spain on Tuesday morning which would drop Spain from the race and bring in the winner of Brazil and Nigeria. Failing that we need Croatia to beat Argentina and cause a 4 way tie. If there is a 4 way tie it will be decided on points for and against, where Croatia currently ranks 3rd.

After Spain's 50 point mutilation of Lithuania, we should pray that Spain loses to Argentina.

Topic #39778 | Report this topic


Anonymous  
Years ago

So if Argentina win, or Croatia win (against Lithuania), Australia avoids Spain in the first round?

Reply #594991 | Report this post


ME  
Years ago

If Croatia win it's a 4 way tie which, at the moment on for and against, would mean we battle Croatia. That is based on current for and against and will change after the next game.

Reply #594993 | Report this post


Zodiac  
Years ago

I wonder if Lithuania were tanking or not?

Goran Dragic won't be happy!

Reply #594997 | Report this post


ME  
Years ago

I don't see why they'd tank. Its not like we have an easybeat in third or second over here. Plus it is hard to see where anyone will end yet.

Reply #595000 | Report this post


PlaymakerMo  
Years ago

How exactly are 3/4-way ties determined?

I ask only because Croatia lost to Nigeria and Spain to Brazil, but in the event they both won tomorrow they would have better H2H records with Lithuania and Argentina.

Reply #595019 | Report this post


PlaymakerMo  
Years ago

Also if Spain lost and Brazil won, would that mean that Brazil would finish 4th ahead of Spain due yo their H2H record? Same goes for Croatia if they lost and Nigeria won.

Reply #595020 | Report this post


ME  
Years ago

If Spain loses and Brazil wins, Brazil gets in on head to head. Same goes for Croatia and Nigeria provided they aren't tied on games won and lost with other teams. It is pretty sticky in that group right now.

Reply #595021 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Years ago

Really shouldn't matter who they play.
Boomers should just come to play

Reply #595027 | Report this post


LV  
Years ago

There are so many possible combinations of results which would result in so many possible ladder positions.

Who can be bothered working it all out? If you can, go ahead. I'll just work out my predictions based on my tips:

I'm tipping Spain to beat Argentina and Brazil to get Nigeria. Lithuania vs Croatia is harder to pick.

If that happens, and Lith wins then

Lithuania 4-1
Spain 3-2(beat Argentina)
Argentina 3-2
Croatia 2-3

Brazil 5th since Croatia beat them. Aus plays Arg. Not a bad matchup imo.

If Spain and Brazil win but Croatia gets Lithuania then

Croatia 3-2 (record 2-1 in mini pool, beat Spain)
Spain 3-2 (record 2-1)
Lithuania 3-2 (record 1-2, Beat Argentina)
Arg 3-2(record 1-2)

Aus plays Lithuania.

Is that how it works though? Ie do the mini pool tie breakers go down to head to head, or do they go down to overall % in the mini pool? I didn't check before working that out. Could change things.

Reply #595028 | Report this post


ME  
Years ago

"If Spain and Brazil win but Croatia gets Lithuania then

Croatia 3-2 (record 2-1 in mini pool, beat Spain)
Spain 3-2 (record 2-1)
Lithuania 3-2 (record 1-2, Beat Argentina)
Arg 3-2(record 1-2)

Aus plays Lithuania.

Is that how it works though? Ie do the mini pool tie breakers go down to head to head, or do they go down to overall % in the mini pool? I didn't check before working that out. Could change things. "

You were right with the first estimation but I don't know how they handle 3 way tie breakers. I think it is to do with points for and against.

Reply #595030 | Report this post


ME  
Years ago

This article explains the situation fairly well

http://www.eurohoops.net/featured/298605/thriller-in-group-b

Reply #595032 | Report this post


LV  
Years ago

Thanks, good article

I looked it up, the tie breaker methodology is actually 1. Results of games between tied teams (mini pool), 2. Goal average in games between tied teams (% within mini pool).

Reply #595068 | Report this post


XY  
Years ago

Will be very interested in the results tomorrow. I do hope we avoid Spain, but there really isn't a 'good' team to hope to match up on (perhaps Brazil?)

We can beat all of those teams, and we are playing great basketball. But I fear we grabbed an early jump against France and Serbia before they each got their game going, each game from here involves some sort of toss of the coin.

Reply #595093 | Report this post


LV  
Years ago

I beg to differ, I think Australia's best matchup is vs Argentina. We have two obvious advantages against them: Size and Depth.

The plan would be to pound the ball inside, try and get Scola and Nocioni into foul trouble. Argentina are heavily reliant on both of those guys. Also, they’re both 36 years old and have been playing big minutes every second day- they might wear out towards the end of the tournament. As I said earlier, if Argentina plays a zone and double teams us inside the paint (as they have been doing a bit) Bogut is a good enough passer to find open shooters. We’ve got plenty of outside shooting in our squad, so good luck with that strategy.

Whereas, Spain and Lithuania have both got strong long term records in international play. They met in last year’s Eurobasket final with similar teams. Spain has now found their feet. And unlike Argentina, Australia doesn’t appear to have any obvious advantage against either of them.

Reply #595095 | Report this post


ME  
Years ago

"But I fear we grabbed an early jump against France and Serbia before they each got their game going,"

I was thinking the same thing, but each of those teams only has one particularly impressive game to their name at this point. I feel like today should have been more about keeping rhythm with players who'll actually play at the quarters rather than resting stars. We can beat anyone there, though. But there is a big difference between 'can' and 'will'.

Reply #595096 | Report this post


dani  
Years ago

So Lithuania dropped the game against Spain and now can only finish 1st or 3rd rather than 1st or 2nd?

1st or 3rd avoids the USA until the final.

Reply #595097 | Report this post


rjd  
Years ago

I don't know which quarterfinal match-up we'd favour, with each possible opponent being scary in different ways. Spain played like a dormant power to start the tournament, but they have major talent and experience to turn it on in the quarters with some signs of recent form; Argentina have an experienced team with veterans that could carry the team with quasi-home court advantage; Croatia are young but look very dangerous with a couple stars in top form; Lithuania is always a powerhouse and had an impressive streak to start the tournament; and Brazil haven't been consistent, but they have talent and you can't discount the effect of true home court advantage. It's scary.

Reply #595098 | Report this post


LV  
Years ago

If you look at Argentina's games. Croatia's big man Bilan got into foul trouble and only played 12 minutes. Plus, Croatia looks to Bogdanovic a lot.

Against Lithuania, Argentina was outrebounded 51-29 and got beaten. Against Brazil, Nene destroyed Argentina on the inside. Bogut and Baynes can do likewise.

Argentina's strength is the run and gun and three point shooting. But Delly and Patty are strong, tough defenders who will pressure the ball handlers and scramble to get a hand on the threes (as will Lisch, and Damo whose legend has grown in this tourny) so I don't think that style will be as effective against Australia like it was against Croatia, Nigeria and Brazil.

I could be completely wrong about all of this, but having seen plenty of Argentina, that's a match up I'd feel more comfortable with than Spain or Lithuania.

Reply #595099 | Report this post


rjd  
Years ago

"So Lithuania dropped the game against Spain and now can only finish 1st or 3rd rather than 1st or 2nd?

1st or 3rd avoids the USA until the final."

Did Lithuania know about this scenario before they played Spain?

Lithuania also play the last game in the round, so if Lithuania prefer to play Australia rather than Serbia, they might throw the game versus Croatia.

Reply #595101 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Years ago

The tanking in Group B will be a very fluid stituation with the scenario changing game by game. Lithuania with the advantage as they play last.

Reply #595146 | Report this post


LV  
Years ago

Lithuania might think that Australia and Serbia are roughly an equal proposition.

If so, why bust your ass and work hard to try and face Australia, when you could spread the minutes around and ensure everyone's well rested for the Quarter final in 2 days time?

Whereas, depending on other results, Croatia could have massive incentive to win vs Lith- ie avoiding a QF vs USA.

I might put some $ on Croatia- $3.00 at TAB and $2.87 at Sportsbet.

Reply #595148 | Report this post


LV  
Years ago

That was meant to say "why bust your ass and work hard to try and face Serbia"

Reply #595149 | Report this post


Zodiac  
Years ago

Given our history against them I would think Lithuania would rather play us than Serbia. The last thing we need is running into Lithuania in the QF.

Reply #595150 | Report this post


LV  
Years ago

That's ancient history though.

I'd rather play Lithuania than Spain, that's for sure.

Reply #595151 | Report this post


Zodiac  
Years ago

Probably but I wouldn't be confident of beating either that's for sure.

Reply #595153 | Report this post


ME  
Years ago

I think people get a little obsessed by the name "Lithuania". This Lithuanian squad is not nearly as strong as they usually are and they seem to lack height inside.

"Probably but I wouldn't be confident of beating either that's for sure."

I am nervous about the quarters but I think we can beat anyone in the tournament on our game.

Reply #595157 | Report this post


LV  
Years ago

Lithuania have pretty much the same group who lost the Eurobasket final to Spain last year.

Agreed, though- I'll back Australia to beat Lithuania.

Given Spain is just hitting form at the right time, it might take a heck of an effort to beat them, but I feel that this Aussie group has the mental toughness and experience to do the job there too.

Reply #595162 | Report this post


Zodiac  
Years ago

What some people overlook is that even though we're clearly a good team the QF are do or die elimination games. All you need is to have an off game or an opponent has scouted you well and medal hopes can go out the window just like that.

A lot of ducks and drakes get played in the group stage games (look at Lithuania's 50 point loss to Spain or Nigeria's win over Croatia). QF and beyond is when it gets serious.

Lithuania have a very good record against us in major international tournaments and Spain on their day should be too much for us to handle so hopefully to give us a chance to medal I hope we draw either Argentina or Croatia in the QF. Get over one of them and you're in the semi's and even if you lose that you're going into the bronze medal game.

Reply #595164 | Report this post


ME  
Years ago

I wouldn't overlook that at all - the quarterfinals scare me. But I think we're as good a chance as anyone in the top half of the 8 of progressing.

As for Spain, depends on what you judge that on; the 50 point win to Lithuania or their past. They're an aging power and they haven't played well yet despite the win that you imply might have been tanking.

I like Australia's chances against Lithuania or Croatia. Spain and Argentina are a bit harder I think with their experience but it's doable.

I am not sure if I like the tactic the Boomers have used with these last two pool games. I am thinking we should put form and continuity ahead of everything else. The last two games have been big, easy wins, but they've been sloppy and it's not a good habit to get into.

Reply #595169 | Report this post


Zodiac  
Years ago

I have to agree with you on that and watching the last two games we've clearly been playing down to the level of the competition. The China game wasn't as bad but the game this morning against Venezuela we only had a single figure lead for large stretches of it and looked flat out uninterested.

At least Lemanis had Goulding on the floor who you know is hungry for his points so that will work for you but Motum was spudding it up too much. He's really gone backwards since leaving the 36ers.

Reply #595174 | Report this post


ME  
Years ago

Motum is too soft for this level of basketball. He shies away from physical contact too much which makes his shots easier to block. For all of his slinky moves he doesn't seem to amount to much but thankfully Lemanis knows how deep on the bench to bury him.

Goulding has put his hand up for minutes, I might add. He has been good on the boards, he has been much improved defensively, and he doesn't have hangups about putting the ball in the ring. He's definitely good insurance if Broekhoff continues to miss everything.

I am wondering whether ending with two weak opponents will help or hinder us. By the time the quarterfinals are played on Thursday morning it will have been a week since the USA game - the last game where they put a real effort in. It's not a long time, but it is possible the opposition could be more 'at home' with the intensity by the time we come in. Or it could have the opposite effect: We might jump out the gate like a bull possessed and outhustle them because we'd be the best rested team in the tournament by far. It is hard to know. Either way the beautiful offense they started the tournament with and the rigid defense hasn';t been seen for a few games now. Maybe the last two games have been played like the exhibition games were, and they will jump in and do it all over again the way they started off with France? I really can't wait to see.

Either way, I can't imagine us being as sloppy and disinterested as the past few days - knock on wood.



Reply #595186 | Report this post


LV  
Years ago

Since Brazil won, my calcs:

Argentina wins, Spain is out.

Arg and Lithuania win
A
Lithuania 4-1
Argentina 4-1
Croatia 2-3
Brazil 2-3

Arg wins then Croatia wins
Argentina 4-1
Croatia 3-2
Lithuania 3-2
Brazil 2-3

Spain and Lithuania win
Lithuania 4-1
Spain 3-2
Argentina 3-2
Croatia 2-3

Spain and Croatia win
Croatia 3-2(2-1, Beat Spain)
Spain (2-1, lost to Croatia)
Lithuania (1-2, Beat Argentina)
Argentina (1-2, lost to Lithuania)

Reply #595210 | Report this post


ME  
Years ago

Looks like it will be one of your last two options. Our opponent will probably be either Argentina or Lithuania.

Reply #595213 | Report this post


ME  
Years ago

Looking further ahead, if we win our prelim we'd face the winner of France and either Croatia or Spain.

Reply #595214 | Report this post


XY  
Years ago

That is probably the best we could have hoped for.

I think Argentina is very beatable. They are terrible rebounders where we should have a big advantage inside.

Lithuania is beatable also, but they just play such great tough basketball I fear it may just disrupt the passing game we have been running.

Reply #595221 | Report this post


ME  
Years ago

Well as long as Lithuania tidy up against Croatia we should have Argentina. Looks like we've been focusing on our rebound of late, dominating China and Venezuela when it became apparent that it was an issue.

Reply #595231 | Report this post


LV  
Years ago

Croatia should win. Australia should play Lithuania, with the winner playing Croatia vs Serbia.

Notice the odds- Croatia have come in from $2.87 to $2.25 with Sportsbet and from $3.00 to $2.15 with TAB.

Seems like people have noticed the same thing I have- that Croatia has a LOT to play for in this game, and Lithuania have very little to gain from a win.

Firstly, Lithuania might think there's little to gain from playing Serbia as opposed to Australia, and secondly, losing will have an added benefit of scoping out one of their two possible semi final opponents when that opponent is desperately trying to win. (Lithuania, if they beat Aus, would play Serbia or Croatia. Lithuania can scout Croatia in this game today).

All of this just adds up to a Croatia win for me. Hope I'm wrong- Argentina is preferable, they get outrebounded every game and have been beaten up inside by big teams- Lith, Spain- and good bigs eg Gasol, Nene.

Reply #595233 | Report this post


LV  
Years ago

Feeling great about this Lith vs Cro game.

If Croatia wins I'll make a bit of pocket money, if Lithuania wins Boomers get a better quarter final match. I'll be happy either way. WIN WIN!

Reply #595238 | Report this post


LV  
Years ago

The minute spreads suggest both teams want to win- both have only used 8 players in first half.

Reply #595240 | Report this post


PlaymakerMo  
Years ago

Croatia up by 8 early in the third quarter.

By the looks of the minutes spread, Lithuania appear to be going for the win though! Valanciunas has has played ~17 mins so far.

Reply #595243 | Report this post


XY  
Years ago

I am not sure, Lithuania keep doing unexplainable boneheaded things, which suggests to me one team is more invested than the other.

Reply #595244 | Report this post


ME  
Years ago

Lithuania are going for the win, they just aren't getting it.

Looks like they will be our crossover right now. After their last two games, I'm sure they'll be tough, but I am not shitting myself.

Reply #595245 | Report this post


LV  
Years ago

Only watched a few minutes of each quarter, but Croatia looks more switched on and more invested in the outcome.

I'm not suggesting Lithuania is "throwing it" but Croatia is playing harder and with more focus because they have more to play for.

Reply #595246 | Report this post


XY  
Years ago

Lithuania starting to show some passion now, but it might be too late...

Agree, all the bonehead plays make them look very beatable.

Reply #595247 | Report this post


LV  
Years ago

Watched most of the last quarter. Croatia has it in the bag now.

Lithuania has been playing their starters, and they look like they're working hard out there.

Maybe they're just out of form. If so, thats great for the Boomers!

Reply #595248 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Years ago

Looking at boxscore... Billy Mildenhall is the commissioner?

Reply #595251 | Report this post


XY  
Years ago

Back to a six point game (after blowing out to 22)

Reply #595252 | Report this post


LV  
Years ago

Lithuania is definitely trying to win- this has turned into a great comeback! Croatia forced to call a time out, with a 6 point lead with 43.3 seconds on the clock. Might be trying to work out how to deal with Lithuania's full court pressure.

Reply #595253 | Report this post


paul  
Years ago

Interesting that Lithuania would prefer to play Australia than Serbia. Hopefully we can dish them a nice serving of karma as Turkey did to us in 2014.

Reply #595254 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Years ago

Aus for good or bad isn't great at tanking. So we get LTU not ARG... argh always getting hard draws.

Reply #595255 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Years ago

PEOPLE THE REAL ISSUE IS BILLY IS THE COMMISH!! HAHAA

Reply #595256 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Years ago

ARG is #3 so why are we saying LTU play AUS? Am I missing something?

Reply #595258 | Report this post


XY  
Years ago

Results go to a mini-pool between tied teams. We get Lithuania.

Reply #595259 | Report this post


paul  
Years ago

"Aus for good or bad isn't great at tanking."

Exactly. Look at Lithos today and Spain in final pool game of 2012, that's how you get the result you want.

Reply #595260 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Years ago

How about Spain in this campaign. Look dead and buried now bink #1 spot and avoid USA

Reply #595261 | Report this post


Dazz  
Years ago

Don't understand those claiming Lithuania didn't want to win?
I thought had they won, they would have gone to the top of table B?
Not only a notionally easier QF draw, but avoid the USA? Doesn't matter now.

So what are the final placings?

Reply #595262 | Report this post


LV  
Years ago

Nah Paul, Kalneitis ended up playing 40 mins, Maciulis 34 mins, Valanciunas 33 minutes, Jankunas 28 mins. They played a full court defense for the last 3 minutes- they looked like they were trying at the end.

Interestingly Bogdanovic received a corky in the dying seconds. Hope he is alright. That's huge- he's been the player of the tournament.

Reply #595263 | Report this post


Naph  
Years ago

Australia(A2) vs Lithuania(B3)
Croatia(B1) vs Serbia(A4)

Spain(B2) vs France(A3)
USA(A1) vs Argentina(B4)

http://www.fiba.com/olympics/2016/groups (click on the brackets tab)

Reply #595264 | Report this post


Dazz  
Years ago

So we draw Lithuania in the QF?

Reply #595265 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Years ago

Umm Dazz Lithuania avoid USA as they are on our side of the bracket.

Lithuania can't be on USA side of the bracket otherwise they wouldn't be facing us.. lol. #logic

Reply #595267 | Report this post


ME  
Years ago

Lithuania DID NOT tank today's game by any stretch of the imagination.

Final placings are:

Croatia
Spain
Lithuania
Argentina

Reply #595268 | Report this post


paul  
Years ago

Of course they looked like they were trying, that's how you do it, so nobody suspects it. Check out Spain v Brazil from 2012.

Reply #595269 | Report this post


XY  
Years ago

Spain get second I think and will meet the US in the semis. Not their best tournament massaging the results.

Reply #595270 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Years ago

So Boomers avoid USA and Spain in semis if win quarters? Not bad.

Reply #595272 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Years ago

So semis could be:

Spain v USA

Australia (hopefully) vs Croatia/Serbia winner

hmmm wow not bad.. medal FINALLY after all the heartache following the national team?

Reply #595274 | Report this post


XY  
Years ago

We are definitely on the desirable side of the draw. Just need to go through Lithuania and Croatia/Serbia to get to the gold medal game. Not easy, but it was never going to be. Well done Boomers.

Croatia/Serbia will be a cracker of a game.

Reply #595275 | Report this post


Dazz  
Years ago

Mmm Croatia v Serbia, that should be really "friendly"

Reply #595277 | Report this post


paul  
Years ago

Spain losing those first two basically meant they couldn't massage results, and opened the door for Lithuania to put them on the USA's side of the draw while keeping themselves on the oppo side.

Reply #595279 | Report this post


paul  
Years ago

Having said that, I don't think Spain will be scared of playing the US in the SFs.

Reply #595280 | Report this post




 

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