Years ago

When should wildcats fans start worrying

Obvious answer is several rounds ago... and every win is a must win...

But, negating current form and based on win/loss records and games remaining, at what point do Wildcats games become "must-wins"?

In my head I was thinking if they lost the last two it would be season over, but it appears there is still hope?

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Air Delay  
Years ago

They'll still make it.
I think 1 & 2 will stay the same then a dogfight from there with only really Brisbane out of contention.

Winners find ways to win.
The cats will be there at the end.

Reply #619149 | Report this post

Years ago

It's very simple.

The Cats have 7 games to go.

Win 5 and they'll almost definitely make it.

Win 4 and they'll have a chance of making it.

Win 3 and they'll still have very a slim chance, but it would be unlikely.

Any any less than 3 and you can forget about it.

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Years ago

Don't know why this would need to be a Perth specific thread. But the short answer is, to ensure a spot in the finals, you need 15 wins. To get to 15 wins this is the equation for each team:

Ade: Already in
Ill: 3-6
Mel: 4-6
Syd: 4-5
Per: 5-7
NZ: 5-6
Cai: 6-8
Bri: 6-6

So Brisbane need to win all of their remaining games.

I suspect this year 14 games will probably get you in with a tie-breaker, but then it is out of your control depending on which teams tie.

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Years ago

For the record I hate the Cats probably more than the next person, but I still think they'll make it.

Reply #619152 | Report this post

Years ago

Melbourne plays Perth twice. Sydney plays Perth once.

Right now Sydney is 11-12 and in 4th spot. Once the Hawks made it with 13-15. Seems possible that someone could make it from 13-15 this year.

Reply #619154 | Report this post

Years ago

"For the record I hate the Cats probably more than the next person"

Around this place, not sure that is possible.

Reply #619155 | Report this post

Years ago

Updated with no. of home games left:

Number of wins required to get to 15:

Ade: Already in (3 @ home)
Ill: 3 of 6 (4H)
Mel: 4 of 6 (2H)
Syd: 4 of 5 (2H)
Per: 5 of 7 (4H)
NZ: 5 of 6 (3H)
Cai: 6 of 8 (4H)
Bri: 6 of 6 (2H)

With the 4 home games remaining, Illawarra should reach 15+.

If they win all of the remaining home games, Perth needs to snatch one on the road, whereas Melbourne, Sydney, New Zealand and Cairns all need to win two road games.

It really is still too tight behind Adelaide and possibly Illawarra to make any predictions as to who will make it (save that Brisbane would need a miracle).

I wonder if any of the permutations of results could lead to a five or six way tiebreaker for the last two spots in the finals? That would be fair justice to the closeness of the season!

Reply #619168 | Report this post

Years ago

Round 19 : Perth Vs Sydney and Perth @ Melbourne
Those 2 games are going to be crucial to the series wins and Perth's finals hopes. You would think if they were to sneak in with a 14-14 record they would need to get those series

Reply #619170 | Report this post

Years ago

I think they should've started worrying when Adelaide reeled off a 20-2 run in their home stadium, in front of a massive crowd. It was Adelaide's second game for the round, and Perth's first.

Reply #619184 | Report this post

Years ago

Cotton is far from the saviour he was unsurprisingly over hyped to be on here after his first game.

A total of 198 minutes of court time in the NBA over three years does not automatically qualify him as an NBL superstar.

Perth jerked around with JJ (twice), and yet would have been significantly better with him last night that Cotton.

Reply #619186 | Report this post

Years ago

Correction, Cotton played briefly for three teams over two years in the NBA.

Reply #619187 | Report this post

Years ago

Start worry about what?

We WERE worrying about not making the finals.
With Dmo back, and Cotton on, that has changed. Apart from Adelaide and probably the Hawak, we are currently best placed.

Of course any further injury, or if Prather doesn't recover quickly, and yeah the worrying will start afresh.

Reply #619188 | Report this post

Years ago

Still believe as a cats fan, it's so close, but confirmed from an inside source Prather and McKay will play Friday, McKay was more of an impact injury nothing structural.

If the cats can beat cairns at home then nz away next weekend, they are a very good Chance of getting in.

Also, cats have played hawks and Adelaide 4 times so they are done with the top 2 sides.

Reply #619195 | Report this post

Years ago

Cotton is a PG. Like most guys in his category, he can also score a bit.
The Cats decided that's what they needed.
Firstly, the way the game is now played, you need a couple of guys on court capable of bringing the ball up, directing plays, and able to make something off their own dribble. In that role, JJ was unfortunately not what we needed.
With Martin still being managed, and the risk he could "pull up sore" after just about any game, Cats decided another PG was a good option.

At the moment, Cotton is probably taking too many shots. Hopefully either his shooting will improve, or at least his shot selection.

But gees, after 4 games he is already looking like a handy player.

Reply #619199 | Report this post

Years ago

"We WERE worrying about not making the finals.
With Dmo back, and Cotton on, that has changed. Apart from Adelaide and probably the Hawak, we are currently best placed."

This is a good point, we WERE worried, but now there is a lot of hope.

While bringing in Damo/Cotton is a huge positive, it means we need everyone to gel together again and work out their roles in the side again. I still have plenty of faith in this side to get it together over the next few weeks and believe they can make the playoffs and be a contender.

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kings fan  
Years ago

3 of the next 4 at home. will probably get 14 wins to get 3rd or 4th seed

Reply #619205 | Report this post

Years ago

Dazz - yes all cats fans have been worried. But now those worries are becoming a reality. While this years team hasn't performed as well as past years heyve always been in contention. Now that the seasons end is nearing the reality of not making the playoffs is getting real.

Reply #619223 | Report this post

Years ago

Thanks XY

Reply #619224 | Report this post

Years ago

I've been waiting for this thread.

Reply #619273 | Report this post

Years ago

I've already been worrying - that there weren't enough Wildcats threads lately, but thankfully this one came along to save the day! :)

As far as I'm concerned if our key players are healthy then we're still a shot. Having said that, it's a worry that we seemed to lose our desperation - which is what got us those road wins and kept the season alive - once we had a full list.
Beat Cairns on Friday night and we're still in business. Lose to them and we don't deserve to be in the post-season anyway even if we're mathematically still alive.

Reply #619274 | Report this post

Manu Fieldel  
Years ago

Don't know why the Perthians are all on edge. I can't imagine someone 'liking' the Wildcats so it doesn't really matter, but if they did then I'd reassure 'em by saying Sydney is playing like crap, Melbourne is shithouse on the road, New Zealand are still unproven, and next up is the Taipans at home... the poopy, poopy Taipans.

Shit's in the bag, guys.

Reply #619275 | Report this post

Years ago

Reply #619276 | Report this post

Wilson Sting  
Years ago

Wildcats fans should be very worried when they think they might miss their streak because of one 'bad' call in CNS.

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Manu Fieldel  
Years ago

Haha poop on a stoop. Reminds me of the Wildcats.

Reply #619285 | Report this post

Years ago

New Zealand are the only team that they should be worried about finishing above them. Sydney are dead in the water, Brisbane almost mathematically can't make it at this point and Cairns are just treading water.
NZ with Dillard and assuming Abercrombie returns soon are a strong unit.
Perth battling with NZ is nothing new to the NBL.
NZ have Illawarra (A), Perth (H), Cairns (H), Sydney (A), Adelaide (A) and Melbourne (H).
Perth have Cairns (H), NZ (A), Melbourne (H), Brisbane (H), Cairns (A), Sydney (H) and Melbourne (A).
Perth are also a loss ahead.
NZ have the season split 2-1 by 11 points. So if NZ win the Perth game (which is the only way they're making Playoffs), they then have the tiebreaker.
Perth can all but lock their spot in on Sunday if they beat NZ over there.

Reply #619288 | Report this post

Years ago

Yeah but when can we start worrying?

Reply #619289 | Report this post

Years ago

Hendo, if Cairns beat Perth twice more then Cairns are in with a real shot, and Perth would find it extremely difficult to get in.

Brisbane can probably be written off with 3 injuries, and needing to win almost every game. But everyone else is still a chance

Reply #619295 | Report this post

Years ago

Should of the cats gone after Clint Steindl harder?? He's not a PG but can handle the ball abit, he's long, he can play both guard and forward. If they got him then they don't go for a player like JJ and get a decent import back up for Marto. Like Kenny is good but the Cat always strive to be great

Reply #619307 | Report this post

Years ago

If Cairns manage to grab the games they have against NZ and Perth, then they can make the Playoffs. But I just can't see it happening.

Reply #619312 | Report this post

Years ago

I have no idea why someone didn't throw some cash at Steindl. Real athletic and a nice shooter who plays a position where it's hard to secure good Aussies.

Reply #619315 | Report this post

Years ago

Worrying then daylight.

Reply #619316 | Report this post

Years ago

How do you know teams didn't throw cash at Steindl?

Reply #619328 | Report this post


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