If Cairns win, leaving only one extra spot,
The 3-way table would be all tied up on 4 wins apiece, and barring a blowout, Sydney would get through on %.

If Perth win, then I think MU can't make it?
Best they do by beating Perth is let NZ in ahead of Perth.

"if then Perth lose on Sunday who goes through - PER or NZ"

NZ would go through
Perth would have to rely on Illawarra beating Brisbane

"What if Illawara end with 14 wins if they lose to Brisbane?"

Sydney 10-6
MU 9-7 (3-1 & +5 in head-to-head with Cairns)
Cairns 9-7
Illawarra 6-10 (2-2 & +11 against NZ)
NZ 6-10

"By our calculations, if the Perth Wildcats beat the Sydney Kings tonight, then Melb United are out and the Cairns Taipans are a top 4 lock."

Does that mean that we play Cairns in the first round if we beat them?

As an MU fan I hope this is the final kick in the guts to fix our attitude problem. We play with a percieved entitlement rather earning anything. Very frustrating year and just another year Todd Blanchfield and Majok have been wasted.

Not necessarily.
Still too early to call where exactly everyone will finish.

If the refs stop helping Perth and give the Kings a chance to win then yes, United are still in it.

lol at this shtyeful Perth crowd, they get about 14 calls in a row, then complain when a correct foul is whistled against them

^ wrong thread!

Can United make the finals?

Who gives a toss?
United don't deserve to be there.
They play for themselves.

Fingers crossed Perf don't make it either...they don't deserve it.

I'm hoping:-
6ers
Hawks
Snakes
Breakers
Anyone can win that series....good times and looking forward to it.

United, DD, Gleeson & Wildcats are flogs!

I'm as confused as hell, how do Cairns go above us if we tie on the same wins, didn't we finish in front of the spread.

No, Melbourne United officially eliminated now.

"I'm as confused as hell, how do Cairns go above us if we tie on the same wins, didn't we finish in front of the spread"

I'm not sure if you're asking this because they are saying on the Wildcats coverage that Cairns are definitely in? If so, I think it's more that they're saying that the lowest that Cairns can finish is 4th based on the various permutations of win/loss in the upcoming games. Whether that's true or not I can't say (have given up on going more than just waiting til the round is over!).

because all teh scenarios with Cairns and Melbourne tied also have someone else tied with them. Cairns did better than Melbourne against all the other teams that might make up that multi-team mini table. So they end up with a better win-loss ratio than Melbourne in all of those possible mini-tables.

any way it's irrelevant now that Perth have beaten Sydney. Melbourne will finish 6th and Sydney 7th.

Cairns are in the playoffs.

Illawarra, NZ and Perth in the race for the last 2 playoff spots.

So on Sunday United win, that leaves Wildcats-United-Cairns all on the same wins. We have the points diff against both of them and we miss out.

So yeah, no they can't.
Only thing they can do now is knock Perth out and help NZ in.

Wonder what version of Melbourne we're going to see on Sunday.
Now that it's meaningless for them it wouldn't surprise me to see CG43 go for 40+

I'm still confused even with 2 teams knocked out lol.
So cairns is a lock with 14 but cats are not a lock on 14 even with taking the series. Assuming because of getting whooped by nz, could it mean the turnover at the end of the home game that allowed nz to hit the game winner will cost finals. Ouch.

Clearly I'm missing the obvious, but if both Cairns and Perth lose would Utd not move up to 4th based on percentage?

AC, I think that would make it a four-way tie with Perth, Cairns and NZ on 14-14, where the Taipans are 7-5, NZ 6-6, Perth 6-6 and Melbourne 5-7.

"So on Sunday United win, that leaves Wildcats-United-Cairns all on the same wins. We have the points diff against both of them and we miss out."

NZ would also have 14 wins. So they count to the mini-ladder.

If Illawarra also win, they have 15 wins, so they finish 2nd.
Mini-Ladder then has those 4 teams.
Cairns are 7-5, Perth and NZ are 6-6. So that then goes to the next step in the process, Perth are 1-3 against NZ, so they miss.

If Illawarra lose, they also have 14 wins.
Mini-Ladder has 5 teams.
Cairns are 10-6, Perth and NZ are 8-8, Illawarra and Melbourne are 7-9.

Come on Brissy finish with a win. Hope the bench will be playing the 4th in Adelaide. Oh the thought of it...