AshT
Two weeks ago

#42670

Betting: NBL Round 18

Brisbane - Illawarra Over 172.5 @ 1.90

I often take a wide arc around Bullets totals but this one I need to try on the strength of 3-0 H2H (201,193,186) and Bullets home performances. Hawks 176ppg. Bullets 171ppg, which may be set to rise through final four matches with top three ranked teams.

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Anonymous
Two weeks ago
11:01 8 Feb 18

Reply #671461

re: Betting: NBL Round 18

Crazy ash. With no buford bullets strugle to get to 80 points


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AshT
Two weeks ago
12:05 8 Feb 18

Reply #671471

re: Betting: NBL Round 18

True thus far - in the two games he's missed they scored just 82 & 80. The first was the previous time these two met but it was still a 186pt game. The second was 163pts with Cairns, which is above Cairns average.


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Hogwash
Two weeks ago
12:23 8 Feb 18

Reply #671473

re: Betting: NBL Round 18

Can't believe Hawks are $1.74 for win.
Should be easy win.


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AshT
Two weeks ago
15:18 8 Feb 18

Reply #671485

re: Betting: NBL Round 18

It is the Hawks, so won't see any of my money on at 1.74. Instead perhaps there should be some sort of dodgy cup that falls of it's base presented to the winner of this game.


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Pickem
Two weeks ago
16:24 8 Feb 18

Reply #671494

re: Betting: NBL Round 18

Circled this one for overs play at the start of this week, purely on a situational basis. Been a pressurised past few weeks for both teams, particularly the Hawks.. but with playoffs now out of the picture this has every reason to be a shoot-out. Brisbane also with no excuse but to be up tempo and energised after their parting shots at Buford this week too.


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Pickem
Two weeks ago
19:58 8 Feb 18

Reply #671517

re: Betting: NBL Round 18

Chopped out of this at halftime.. not liking what I'm seeing from the hawks and don’t want to get burnt by a 28 pt final quarter in a blowout

Have o174 and u175.5 so heck maybe I’ll get lucky and hit both, now that would be some 'middle’


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Anonymous
Two weeks ago
20:24 8 Feb 18

Reply #671523

re: Betting: NBL Round 18

i apologize to ash...hawks wtf


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Anonymous
Two weeks ago
21:46 8 Feb 18

Reply #671545

re: Betting: NBL Round 18

This is the Hawks first game being out of mathematical playoff contention. Plus away against a team who lost their cancerous player. Standard result.


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AshT
Two weeks ago
21:50 8 Feb 18

Reply #671549

re: Betting: NBL Round 18

"i apologize to ash..."

I actually appreciate the contribution, too dead in here at times and can do with someone calling me the odd 'C' word just to keep me on track. After all, Bullets were only 77 at 3QT and no cert to make it to 80 given their past. Cheers!


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Anonymous
Two weeks ago
21:52 8 Feb 18

Reply #671550

re: Betting: NBL Round 18

How many units are you up season to date?


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AshT
Two weeks ago
22:11 8 Feb 18

Reply #671553

re: Betting: NBL Round 18

Pickem, bit tough the way that broke. Hawks lack of scoring mojo had me having a peek too, then 179.5 on offer at 3QT looked on the doubtful side, especially into Q4. Opponents can pour late points on Bullets once they start that save-it nonsense, which worked out that way this time, otherwise it looked to be heading for around smack on 175.


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Anonymous
Two weeks ago
22:16 8 Feb 18

Reply #671554

re: Betting: NBL Round 18

Did you middle on purpose Pickem or u/o moved later on and you took the other side? BTW was it a positive arb?


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AshT
Two weeks ago
22:31 8 Feb 18

Reply #671562

re: Betting: NBL Round 18

As in standard stake on a game = 1 unit; WNBL +11. NBL +12, after just paddling early to be -1 at Rd7.


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Anonymous
Two weeks ago
22:36 8 Feb 18

Reply #671566

re: Betting: NBL Round 18

Well done. Get dat money.


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AshT
Two weeks ago
07:29 9 Feb 18

Reply #671596

re: Betting: NBL Round 18

Perth - Cairns Under 162.5 @ 1.89

Bottom two ranked teams, H2H;159,151 and 0-6 last season too. Cairns 1-13 with the next four lowest teams, 163 Brisbane the sole over. Recent is 6-4 and slightly higher away for the season but upon a closer look I'm not too concerned and am not expecting anything too radical tonight, either.


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Pickem
Two weeks ago
19:03 9 Feb 18

Reply #671744

re: Betting: NBL Round 18

United -5


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Pickem
Two weeks ago
19:26 9 Feb 18

Reply #671750

re: Betting: NBL Round 18

Nice quick loss on United.. you know pretty early with this group of high maintenance poodles and tonight is clearly one of those nights where they don't feel like it or the room temperature isn’t to their liking or they just feel like making basketball look complicated AF


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AshT
Two weeks ago
21:00 9 Feb 18

Reply #671807

re: Betting: NBL Round 18

Cairns @ 6.00

Are playing well but an unlucky victim of timing lately - met opponents at the wrong time. This is quite a good spot for Cairns IMO, as strange as it might seem and Perth seemingly with fair share of injury niggles too. Wildcats should get the home win but I'm happy to set fire to cash at these odds.


Sydney - Brisbane Over 170.5 @ 1.92

Rank #3 & #4 at 174 & 172ppg. H2H;162 (both looked in 'ordinary’ touch regardless of applied D),196. Both in positive mindset at present. Kings mostly low opp for two months now. Breaking into 170’s looks the more likely IMO, even accounting for Bullets lower away.


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AshT
Two weeks ago
21:03 9 Feb 18

Reply #671810

re: Betting: NBL Round 18

"United -5"

That cover never ever looked in doubt, though you probably won't know you've won until until you log into your account tomorrow.


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Pickem
Two weeks ago
21:15 9 Feb 18

Reply #671818

re: Betting: NBL Round 18

Oh no AshT, unfortunately I rode that prick of a game all the way home.. betting favourites in this league is just a one way ticket to baldness

Anyway, Expecting a signature Perth home beat down in this late one but going to hope Cairns can hang in the first half and give me a slightly better 2nd half # .. if I'd done that in the early game my bet would’ve been in the bag with 30 seconds to play rather than 4 seconds, smh


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AshT
Two weeks ago
21:33 9 Feb 18

Reply #671827

re: Betting: NBL Round 18

2.10 for a lead change in wire to wire betting I did have a serious think about today.


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Anonymous
Two weeks ago
21:42 9 Feb 18

Reply #671835

re: Betting: NBL Round 18

Pickem you should send the refs a bouquet of flowers after the -5 MEL somehow came through.


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AshT
Two weeks ago
21:57 9 Feb 18

Reply #671845

re: Betting: NBL Round 18

Bet365 have Wildcats Q3 -4.5 @ 1.95 is interesting.


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Anonymous
Two weeks ago
21:58 9 Feb 18

Reply #671848

re: Betting: NBL Round 18

Rigged?


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Anonymous
Two weeks ago
22:01 9 Feb 18

Reply #671850

re: Betting: NBL Round 18

Line was 10.5 pre wasn't it. Hmmm


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AshT
Two weeks ago
22:04 9 Feb 18

Reply #671853

re: Betting: NBL Round 18

Yep 10.5 with some money for Cairns.

Cats currently -5.5 @ 1.92 Sportsbet interesting prospect too.


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Pickem
Two weeks ago
22:07 9 Feb 18

Reply #671855

re: Betting: NBL Round 18

-6 not quite to my liking as the live ht line.. -5 was my ceiling .. staying out


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Pickem
Two weeks ago
22:32 9 Feb 18

Reply #671892

re: Betting: NBL Round 18

Hold on tight AshT ...


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AshT
Two weeks ago
23:40 9 Feb 18

Reply #671985

re: Betting: NBL Round 18

Same movie we'd all seen a hundred time before and looked for certain to end in tears - the fact I wasn't on Bullets kept my faith though! Guess I'll just cop Taipans crashng the under with 17/35 beyond the arc! I need a drink!


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AshT
Two weeks ago
14:29 10 Feb 18

Reply #672073

re: Betting: NBL Round 18

Sunday;

Melbourne United +4 @ 1.91

Caught off the bit Friday after dominate form and perhaps a little lucky to win. It did however say something about season destiny IMO and I like to stick with teams like that. Breakers starting to look a little banged up plus not the element of surprise this time, nor the rest advantage that saw them win this meeting last month.


Illawarra - Adelaide Over 190.5 @ 1.90

Top two ranked teams, H2H;183,202,205, as well as 7-4 across previous two seasons, again as #1 & #2. Hawks displeased off a slack one and 36ers locked into securing second spot, so both are likely to be onto what they do best.


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AshT
Two weeks ago
19:50 10 Feb 18

Reply #672145

re: Betting: NBL Round 18

"Sydney - Brisbane Over 170.5 @ 1.92"

Very fortunate to snare that one! Rarely looked likely and I spent the game cursing Kings cold 3P shooters until Cadee throws it in just as I'm anticipating they'll dribble out the clock.


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Pickem
Last week
18:32 11 Feb 18

Reply #672331

re: Betting: NBL Round 18

Outstanding weekend AshT, including that big dog collect in Perth..

Unfortunately I tarnished a 4-0 w/end on full game plays with two halftime hedge / middle attempts.. its something I've yet to get close to mastering.. need to look closer into how big a 'middle’opportunity would / should constitute a play - ie maybe something like 20pts in totals and 10 pts on sides


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Anonymous
Last week
21:08 11 Feb 18

Reply #672354

re: Betting: NBL Round 18

Wow Ash the profit in units will read a lot better now.


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