AshT
Earlier this year

Betting: NBL Round 18

Brisbane - Illawarra Over 172.5 @ 1.90

I often take a wide arc around Bullets totals but this one I need to try on the strength of 3-0 H2H (201,193,186) and Bullets home performances. Hawks 176ppg. Bullets 171ppg, which may be set to rise through final four matches with top three ranked teams.

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Anonymous  
Earlier this year

Crazy ash. With no buford bullets strugle to get to 80 points

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AshT  
Earlier this year

True thus far - in the two games he's missed they scored just 82 & 80. The first was the previous time these two met but it was still a 186pt game. The second was 163pts with Cairns, which is above Cairns average.

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Hogwash  
Earlier this year

Can't believe Hawks are $1.74 for win.
Should be easy win.

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AshT  
Earlier this year

It is the Hawks, so won't see any of my money on at 1.74. Instead perhaps there should be some sort of dodgy cup that falls of it's base presented to the winner of this game.

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Pickem  
Earlier this year

Circled this one for overs play at the start of this week, purely on a situational basis. Been a pressurised past few weeks for both teams, particularly the Hawks.. but with playoffs now out of the picture this has every reason to be a shoot-out. Brisbane also with no excuse but to be up tempo and energised after their parting shots at Buford this week too.

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Pickem  
Earlier this year

Chopped out of this at halftime.. not liking what I'm seeing from the hawks and don’t want to get burnt by a 28 pt final quarter in a blowout

Have o174 and u175.5 so heck maybe I’ll get lucky and hit both, now that would be some 'middle’

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Anonymous  
Earlier this year

i apologize to ash...hawks wtf

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Anonymous  
Earlier this year

This is the Hawks first game being out of mathematical playoff contention. Plus away against a team who lost their cancerous player. Standard result.

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AshT  
Earlier this year

"i apologize to ash..."

I actually appreciate the contribution, too dead in here at times and can do with someone calling me the odd 'C' word just to keep me on track. After all, Bullets were only 77 at 3QT and no cert to make it to 80 given their past. Cheers!

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Anonymous  
Earlier this year

How many units are you up season to date?

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AshT  
Earlier this year

Pickem, bit tough the way that broke. Hawks lack of scoring mojo had me having a peek too, then 179.5 on offer at 3QT looked on the doubtful side, especially into Q4. Opponents can pour late points on Bullets once they start that save-it nonsense, which worked out that way this time, otherwise it looked to be heading for around smack on 175.

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Anonymous  
Earlier this year

Did you middle on purpose Pickem or u/o moved later on and you took the other side? BTW was it a positive arb?

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AshT  
Earlier this year

As in standard stake on a game = 1 unit; WNBL +11. NBL +12, after just paddling early to be -1 at Rd7.

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Anonymous  
Earlier this year

Well done. Get dat money.

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AshT  
Earlier this year

Perth - Cairns Under 162.5 @ 1.89

Bottom two ranked teams, H2H;159,151 and 0-6 last season too. Cairns 1-13 with the next four lowest teams, 163 Brisbane the sole over. Recent is 6-4 and slightly higher away for the season but upon a closer look I'm not too concerned and am not expecting anything too radical tonight, either.

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Pickem  
Earlier this year

United -5

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Pickem  
Earlier this year

Nice quick loss on United.. you know pretty early with this group of high maintenance poodles and tonight is clearly one of those nights where they don't feel like it or the room temperature isn’t to their liking or they just feel like making basketball look complicated AF

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AshT  
Earlier this year

Cairns @ 6.00

Are playing well but an unlucky victim of timing lately - met opponents at the wrong time. This is quite a good spot for Cairns IMO, as strange as it might seem and Perth seemingly with fair share of injury niggles too. Wildcats should get the home win but I'm happy to set fire to cash at these odds.


Sydney - Brisbane Over 170.5 @ 1.92

Rank #3 & #4 at 174 & 172ppg. H2H;162 (both looked in 'ordinary’ touch regardless of applied D),196. Both in positive mindset at present. Kings mostly low opp for two months now. Breaking into 170’s looks the more likely IMO, even accounting for Bullets lower away.

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AshT  
Earlier this year

"United -5"

That cover never ever looked in doubt, though you probably won't know you've won until until you log into your account tomorrow.

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Pickem  
Earlier this year

Oh no AshT, unfortunately I rode that prick of a game all the way home.. betting favourites in this league is just a one way ticket to baldness

Anyway, Expecting a signature Perth home beat down in this late one but going to hope Cairns can hang in the first half and give me a slightly better 2nd half # .. if I'd done that in the early game my bet would’ve been in the bag with 30 seconds to play rather than 4 seconds, smh

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AshT  
Earlier this year

2.10 for a lead change in wire to wire betting I did have a serious think about today.

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Anonymous  
Earlier this year

Pickem you should send the refs a bouquet of flowers after the -5 MEL somehow came through.

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AshT  
Earlier this year

Bet365 have Wildcats Q3 -4.5 @ 1.95 is interesting.

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Anonymous  
Earlier this year

Rigged?

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Anonymous  
Earlier this year

Line was 10.5 pre wasn't it. Hmmm

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AshT  
Earlier this year

Yep 10.5 with some money for Cairns.

Cats currently -5.5 @ 1.92 Sportsbet interesting prospect too.

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Pickem  
Earlier this year

-6 not quite to my liking as the live ht line.. -5 was my ceiling .. staying out

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Pickem  
Earlier this year

Hold on tight AshT ...

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AshT  
Earlier this year

Same movie we'd all seen a hundred time before and looked for certain to end in tears - the fact I wasn't on Bullets kept my faith though! Guess I'll just cop Taipans crashng the under with 17/35 beyond the arc! I need a drink!

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AshT  
Earlier this year

Sunday;

Melbourne United +4 @ 1.91

Caught off the bit Friday after dominate form and perhaps a little lucky to win. It did however say something about season destiny IMO and I like to stick with teams like that. Breakers starting to look a little banged up plus not the element of surprise this time, nor the rest advantage that saw them win this meeting last month.


Illawarra - Adelaide Over 190.5 @ 1.90

Top two ranked teams, H2H;183,202,205, as well as 7-4 across previous two seasons, again as #1 & #2. Hawks displeased off a slack one and 36ers locked into securing second spot, so both are likely to be onto what they do best.

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AshT  
Earlier this year

"Sydney - Brisbane Over 170.5 @ 1.92"

Very fortunate to snare that one! Rarely looked likely and I spent the game cursing Kings cold 3P shooters until Cadee throws it in just as I'm anticipating they'll dribble out the clock.

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Pickem  
Earlier this year

Outstanding weekend AshT, including that big dog collect in Perth..

Unfortunately I tarnished a 4-0 w/end on full game plays with two halftime hedge / middle attempts.. its something I've yet to get close to mastering.. need to look closer into how big a 'middle’opportunity would / should constitute a play - ie maybe something like 20pts in totals and 10 pts on sides

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Anonymous  
Earlier this year

Wow Ash the profit in units will read a lot better now.

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