Years ago

NBL GF Series MVP - Predictions

A fantastic GF series going the distance! Some players on both teams have been consistently good across the first four games with others only playing well on their home floor e.g. Ware.

My picks depending on whether United or 36ers win:

United - Prather
20pts, 6rbs, 31/69fgs (45%), 7/19 3pts, 10/11 FTs, -13 +/-

36ers - Johnson
18.5pts, 5rbs, 20/45fgs (44%), 7/10 3pts, 27/31 FTs, +49 +/-

What would be your pick for each team and why?

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Years ago

Someone has to say it...
Melbourne win - Umpires... ;-) Barlow in the first couple of games stepped up and without him they would have lost. hard to pick though as all have been up and down.

Adelaide - Creek, Dj or even Moore all have been instrumental.
Deng has stepped up as he does when he gets minutes.

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Years ago

Casper Ware.

When he fires, United usually wins.

When he struggles, United usually loses.

That trend has continued through the Grand Final. He's got a week to get his body right, and I'll back him in to put in another big performance on his home court.

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Years ago

Casper Ware.
I have a side bet already on Creek but DJ has been the best for Adelaide so far.

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Years ago

LV and Hogwash - Ware? Unless he has a massive game and carries them over the line, he's been very ordinary in their two away losses as opposed to Prather's consistency across each game, keeping MU ahead or giving them a bite in games 2 & 4.

Ware's stats:
16pts, 2asts, 2rbs, 0.5stls, 3to's, +2 +/-
23/52 fgs (44%), 8/21 3pts (38%)

Assuming Prather has a "quiet" game, then I think Ware is going to have to score 30 and lead MU from go to wo to take out MVP. Otherwise, if Prather has a another really strong, consistent 20+ pt game, sI till think he would be favourite if MU win.

If 36ers win and Johnson has around 20pts again, think he'll claim it...

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Years ago

Shorter's stats for those playing at home...

14pts, 6rbs, 2.5asts, 2stls, 1to, +25 +/-
22/54 fgs (41%), 4/11 3pts (36%), 7/11 ft's

Stats show that he's been more consistent and more value overall when on the floor compared to Ware across the four games.

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Years ago

The MVP should primarily be decided on who played better in the wins

Plus Casper gets extra points for playing the entire series- since 6 minutes in- at well under 100% fitness.

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Years ago

Casper's not only dealing with a dodgy hip but very questionable refereeing that limited his playing time in Adelaide.

5 50/50 calls for fouls last week. And today subbed off after getting his second foul- both barely made contact with his opponent

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Years ago

No. It should simply be decided by which player is the most valuable. Most players will be carrying at least some niggles by this stage of the season.

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Years ago

Shorter's outplayed Ware this series and DJ probably deserves it for Adelaide and Prather for Melbourne.

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Years ago

Well the diff bw Caspers efforts in win vs loss games all season has shown his value. Grand Final has been same same

Don't think I saw any other key players getting subbed off late in games to pop some pills before re entering?

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Years ago

Goulding has played better than Prather in the series so far, even today Goulding finished on -10 in 36 minutes and Prather-13 in 32 minutes. Prather has had more turnovers as well.
Johnston has been the best if Adelaide win it.

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Years ago

Would be awesome to get a shock winner like Barlow or Deng,

The last few grand final series has been decided in the decider, I think the last time we had a clear cut winner before the last game was Cedric Jackson

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Years ago

I think any injury Ware has is not as severe as Childress's injury!!

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Years ago

I wouldn't see Barlow or Deng as a shock

Reply #680724 | Report this post

Years ago

Did Barlow injure Ware during a gym session?

Reply #680727 | Report this post

Years ago

Both teams have such even and deep rosters that there really hasn't been one outstanding player this series.
If they judge it on who has been best in their team's wins, Ware has to win it. But he's gone completely missing in both of the losses.
I think it will come down to who of Prather, DJ, Creek and Ware wins the game for their team in Game 5.
Wouldn't be against Ramone Moore winning it, to be honest. He's been exactly what we've needed in big moments this series.

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Years ago

Plus Casper gets extra points for playing the entire series- since 6 minutes in- at well under 100% fitness.
No he doesn't.

Creek is leading both teams in rebounds and assists, going by the NBL on Twitter. A big game five might put him in the mix?

I'm hoping though that Deng goes for 40+ and they have to give it to him...

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Years ago

Both teams have had guys step up but the ones who probably make the biggest difference are those who weren't expected to. For that reason, it's got to be either Barlow or Deng. Deng should be in that Boomers Commonwealth Games team over Hodgson, who has been missing in action all year.

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Years ago

Isn't it judged on a vote after each game? Probably not too hard to go back and do a quick 3-2-1 (or 5-4-3-2-1, what ever it is) for each game to get a rough idea who is near the top

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Years ago

No according to LV it's only judged on who performs in Melbourne wins.

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Years ago

Over the four games played so far the plus / minus are

Johnston +45
Creek 0
Deng. +21
Shorter. +25
Moore. -15

Ware. +2
Prather. -13
Barlow. +8
Goulding. -3

Fair to say if Adelaide win it should be Johnston, even if they get beat you he would have to be considered.
Moller is actually Melbourne best at +10.

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Jack Toft  
Years ago

I think it is still very open and really will come down to Game 5 performance. The MVP is not necessarily the highest scorer, but the one who has turned the game.

Ware is the obvious choice for United fans to get excited about. Apart from that, the quality drops away when they are put under pressure.

For the Sixers, the field is a little more open.

However, over the series so far, looking at the Index points and the +/-

Prather: 69 Index, -13
Goulding: 57, -3
Wesley: 52, -22
Boone: 46, -23
Ware: 41, +2
Barlow: 40, +8
Andersen: 35, +36
Hooley: 13, -12
Majok: 10, -5
Adnam: 7, -10
SmithMilner: 5, -18

Based on that, Prather would be the hot favourite, but Andersen is actually pretty impressive.

Creek: 74, 0
Johnson: 67, +49
Deng: 67, +21
Shorter: 59, +25
Moore: 53, -15
Sobey: 47, -10
Childress: 24, +17
Drmic: 23, -24
Hodgson: 12, -14
Doyle: 1, +4
Teys: 0,-3
Larkins: 0,0

Based on that, I would say Creek is currently leading all players, BUT, the fact that Johnson is +49 on his +/- shows how important his performances have been.

My Top 5:

Honorable mentions: Deng, Andersen

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Years ago

If Melbourne wins - it will be Prather, Ware or Goulding - whoever plays the best in Game 5

Adelaide - I would think Johnson leading would be the favourite atm

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Years ago

Jack toft
You missed Moller who is 10 and 10, certainly not mvp but very reasonable for the amount of time played. Anderson as you point out also excellent in his limited time as well.

It should be Johnson if Adelaide win and probably if they loose a close one and he plays well.

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Years ago

William Hill's odds:

Ware $3
Prather $4
Creek $6
DJ/Goulding $7
Shorter/Moore $17
Deng/Wesley $26
Boone/Sobey $34

Boone would've slipped dramatically from before the series!

Ignoring stats, I think Wesley and Creek have been absolutely key for their teams. Wesley's blocks have been almost a story in themselves.

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Years ago

Goulding? Really? He's taken shots away from better shooters throughout the series (he's 12/40 from 3 pt range). Apart from a streak of 3 or 4 shots in quarter 3 of game 1 (which got Melbourne back on equal footing in that game), he's had little influence on game results. Prather also seems to have been more prominent when Melbourne have lost. To me, Ware has had the most impact on Melbourne winning or losing in the games so far.

With Adelaide I struggle to pick a single MVP. I like the way Creek just goes about it and keeps coming up with key plays throughout the game - a drive, a block, a rebound, a defensive stop. He seems to set the tone for the team. Would love to see a Deng 3-pointer on the buzzer to win the series. That'd get him the MVP.

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Years ago

Well I doubt DJ can win it now.... Lemanis is on the panel deciding the MVP

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Years ago

Exactly what I thought, he's been the best so far.

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Jack Toft  
Years ago

Well I doubt DJ can win it now.... Lemanis is on the panel deciding the MVP

Lemanis: Err.....congratulations, here's your MVP award DJ (nervous shuffling of feet)
DJ: Now, about that Boomers spot.......

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