D2.0
Two months ago

What are our Medal chances at the WC?

Drawing Lithuania in our group is tough, but I guess we had to get someone.

As I would see it, we would like to avoid the USA, and the Euro powerhouses of France, Spain, and Serbia?? And probably also China!

I'd assume we'd be favoured to beat Senegal & Canada, thus progressing to the 2nd round, where we'll face France.
Unfortunately we would then face the USA in the QFs.
(Only way to avoid that is to finish first in group L, which probably means beating France, and probably Lithuania.)

Despite finish 4th at the Olympics, I can only assume that the BS from the last WC has come back to bite us in the arse, tanking our ranking and giving us this crappy draw.

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KET  
Two months ago

You think we are favs against Canada but wouldn't want to face China?

I’d be a lot more concerned by Canada than Spain let alone China who shouldn’t be that much of a challenger

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Food for thought  
Two months ago

You're worried about Lithuania, who we beat by 30 something in 2016. You're worried about France, who we beat by 20 in 2016 and who've only really got older. You list CHINA among all others as a team we need to worry about. Spain who we almost beat in 2016 and who've only got older. Serbia, who we beat in the first game in 2016?

We're going to have a better team than in 2016 yet you're worried about teams we wiped off the floor back then - teams who have got older while we've got better?

Honestly, I'm not too worried. We will either beat all teams in group 1, or drop 1 game which will put us in the crossover against the group with France and Germany. We would actually be favorites to win both of those games, launching us in the top 8 and likely avoiding the US in the first crossovers, probably putting us against one of Greece, Turkey or even New Zealand. Once again, on paper we'd even be favorites against those teams although, sure, I'd hardly be as sure about that as against France and Germany.

The absolute lowest threshold of success for this team should be top 8. On paper, we are anything from second to fifth most talented team at the cup. Probably second at this rate. Make no mistake, the Boomers 2019 team is going to be a big upgrade on our 2016 team. We had a very weak bench in 2016. In 2019 our bench is likely to be something like Dellavedova, Blanchfield or Gliddon, Sobey, Thon Maker, Brock Motum, Andrew Bogut, and possibly guys like Deng Adel or Mitch Creek. While you still would never want to play our full bench at any given time, there is certainly way more length, speed, athleticism and scoring punch off this bench than there was in 2016.

We're basically spoilt for riches yet you're worried about China?

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Anonymous  
Two months ago

Very difficult draw. Think canada have got us but we should beat Lithuania.
Lithuania still have a great frontcourt and good sfs but guard play not what it used to be.

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Food for thought  
Two months ago

For what it's worth:

Ben Simmons

Patty Mills

Joe Ingles

Jonah Bolden

Aron Baynes

Matthew Dellavedova

Mitch Creek

Thon Maker

Andrew Bogut

Brock Motum

Todd Blanchfield/Cam Gliddon

Nathan Sobey

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Food for thought  
Two months ago

Sorry, but why have Canada "got us"? They've not announced a team. No one from Canada has indicated interest yet. They don't have a team culture yet. Basically they might be just throwing together stars and hoping for the best at absolute best. They have no tradition of doing well at these tournaments. I don't see any evidence that they've got us yet at all. I'm gonna need to see the names and need to see some games together first. The core of our team have been together for a decade. Canada are hoping to pull it together within a month.

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Anonymous  
Two months ago

"Probably second best team there"

“The worst acceptable spot we can finish is 8th”

Lofty standards

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Aussie  
Two months ago

Lemanis will start:

Simmons
Mills
Bogut
Baynes
Ingles

Make no mistake about that

Reply #744334 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Two months ago

Lemanis will start:

Cadee

make no mistake about that

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Anonymous  
Two months ago

Lemanis will be head coach.... but he will make mistakes.

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Greggo  
Two months ago


Aussie
Today

Lemanis will start:

Simmons
Mills
Bogut
Baynes
Ingles

Make no mistake about that


Wanna bet a million dollars?

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Aussie  
Two months ago

Who do you think he will start then?

Reply #744339 | Report this post


Aussie  
Two months ago

2016 starters were:

Delly
Mills
Bogut
Baynes
Ingles

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Anonymous  
Two months ago

How many are going to be picked for training camp, like to see a reasonable squad so everyone earns their spot.

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Greggo  
Two months ago

Just can't see Bogut and Baynes sharing the floor together in this day and age. Especially when we have Simmons who can guard 4's and provide the mismatch.

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Greggo  
Two months ago

I think we'll go either a line up where Simmons plays the four (point forward/ feeder type role as he wont relinquish being "named" the PG), or using a more complementary 4 like Creek, Bolden etc

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Aussie  
Two months ago

Squad of 16 to be announced next week

Reply #744348 | Report this post


Team Mate  
Two months ago

Blanchfield not even nbl starter quality.

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rjd  
Two months ago

Re: starting Bogut + Baynes starting together, notice that in 2016 Lemanis played Bogut and Baynes together for just the first ~4 mins of each half, otherwise playing one of them at the 5. I wouldn't be surprised if he did the same this year. Outside of the first 4 minutes of each half, he played primarily Andersen (ave 20 mins), Bairstow (ave 13 mins) and Motum (ave 9 mins) at the 4. I think Bogut and Baynes don't have the capacity to play any more than in 2016. Bogut was on 20 minutes per game (with one rest game) and Baynes was approaching the mid-20s per game. The question is how Lemanis will cover the absence on Andersen, who was very useful as a stretch 4 in Rio. This is where I expect to see Lemanis go with either Maker or Bolden or Motum to get those minutes. There will be minutes available for these guys to step up.

But if Simmons plays the 4 defensively, ideally he should either play alongside Baynes, who has become at least a threat from range, or a smallball lineup with Maker or Bolden at the 5. Simmons inclusion changes the team because his lack of jumpshot really needs to be covered.

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rjd  
Two months ago

Also does anyone else think that Simmons will be more easily covered by opposition coaches in international FIBA ball than in the NBA? FIBA doesn't have as restrictive defensive rules compared with NBA, and the spacing is more congested, which will make it more difficult for Simmons to penetrate. Simmons lineups need to be run-and-gun and/or full of shooters.

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D2.0  
Two months ago

Wow, love the fact that nobody bothered to answer the question...
(Apart from the nong claiming we're the 2nd best team.)

Perhaps what I should have asked is
"without resorting to the usual drivel about how we have the best team ever and could even beat the USA for Gold, is anyone able to give a realistic indication of our Medal chances?".

Nowhere did I say I was worried about China. They're on the other side of the draw, so I think meeting them is practically impossible.
The only issue with China, is that if they do win through to the QFs, you wouldn't want to be the team facing them, in a knockout final, on a Chinese court.

Unless I am mistaken, the USA will finish top of group K, meaning they will play the 2nd placed team from our group L in the 3rd QF.
So to avoid them, we need to finish top of the 2nd round group.

As always, you can drop a game and still finish top, but ideally you're aiming to win all 5.
So that would mean beating Canada, Senegal, and Lithuania in the 1st round, then France and maybe the Dominicans in the 2nd round.
I don't know enough about any of those teams, to rate our chances.

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Food for thought  
Two months ago

Canada could go either way. We'd be favorites against Lithuania, Senegal, France and whoever else comes through the first crossover.

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Anonymous  
Two months ago

we would smack China by 40

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Anonymous  
Two months ago

Without broekhofff, our chances decrease by about 15 percent.

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Anonymous  
Two months ago

I like our chances of finishing in the top 3. China Canada etc are all 20pt+ margin wins for us

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anon  
Last month

Now that Baynes has been traded to Phoenix Suns and possibly being offloaded elsewhere, what are his chances of playing?

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D2.0  
Last month

"we would smack China by 40"

Really?
You think China have spent billions on this, to allow themselves to be embarrassed??

Their games against Poland and Venezuela will be interesting. I will be very surprised if they don't make it through.
Hard to see them getting past Russia and Argentina, but who knows.

Either way, I will be utterly shocked if the Refs allow any shellackings, or for that matter if any coaches are dumb enough to attempt it.

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koberulz  
Last month

It's the World Cup, there won't be Chinese refs.

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D2.0  
Last month

All I'm saying is that China will not be embarrassed.

Reply #748362 | Report this post


Food for thought  
Last month

"Now that Baynes has been traded to Phoenix Suns and possibly being offloaded elsewhere, what are his chances of playing?"

As far as I know nothing is going to change and he will still be playing.

"All I'm saying is that China will not be embarrassed."

Absolutely not. They are going to win a few games they shouldn't. They will definitely make it out of the first round.

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Anonymous  
Last month

China will not get out of there group. They struggled with the NBL select team. Team China was only missing a couple of players. They will stink at the World Cup. No Chinese refs to bail them out. It will be very ugly for them

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Bear  
Last month

@D2.0 - I believe our chances are very good for a medal, can't say much beyond that but what I will say is that we need to be positive in every game we play and not look too far ahead, perhaps tank a game just to avoid a particular opponent like we did once and it was disgraceful!

Take them on and just beat them, no matter who we play, the Aussie way..........

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