I'm no Perth fan but with 9 home games to end the season, you sir are an absolute moron.

If Cotton gets injured, they're done.

Gleeson had the coaching chops to get around critical absences, Morrison's entire gameplan is "hope Cotton is good enough to win". They have nothing else. Seeing a Wildcats team in the bottom half of the league defensively, including being dead last in defensive rebounding, is an embarrassment.

Like many teams, take creek or Goulding adams ect they won't be winning games as well ffs people are so d&$b

Vic Lawl thinks he's good enough to win. Thats half the problem because he plays selfish most of the time. Had a good one today though.

Blind freddy can see rebounding is a major issue so i dont know why GM wont pull the trigger already and replace Frazier. Its a waste of an import spot at the moment.

I wouldn't go so far to say they wont make the top 4 but they wont compete with United with the current defensive and rebounding issues.

Hmm, I don't think Law comes off as selfish at all. It's important for us that he stays proactive. Plus he's very important to us on the boards.

Cats could conceivably finish outside the top 4 but personally I think we're looking ok so far, considering the mammoth road trip that has made up most of the season. First game after it and we already appeared fresher & better to me. Blanchfield has been injured/struggling for most of the season but has looked progressively better in recent games. He's a big piece when he's going.

The big question mark is Frazier II

I don't think Law comes off as selfish at all. It's important for us that he stays proactive.

Like many teams, take creek or Goulding adams ect they won't be winning games as well ffs people are so d&$b

Law's biggest problem is at times he has questionable shot selection. I don't think he's ever seen a shot he doesn't like.

Perth are 10-6, Matt Hodgsons only played 9 sporadic games, and they have a bunch of home games to finish the season.

I'd say they'll very likely finish top 4 and they're probably still championship favourites for mine. Just a whisker ahead of United.

Last time they played United, JLA feasted on their small front court (minus Hodgson) and United only won by 6. In Melbourne.

Agree totally, LV

Perth not going to make finals



Think again, home games to come !

They won't miss finals again .

"You heard it here first."

Actually I believe we've been hearing it for about 20 years. They've always been wrong too

Perth have 9 home games left. Sydney have 2 and Illawarra have 3.

Perth are 4-1 at home. Kings are 9-3 at home and Illawarra are 6-5 at home.

Perth have 5 or 6 games left against other top 5 teams, plus 7 or 6 against bottom 5 teams (with at least 4 against bottom 2 teams).
Sydney have 3 or 4 games left against fellow top 5 teams and 7 or 6 against bottom 5 teams (with at least 5 of those against bottom 3 teams).
Illawarra have 5 or 6 games left against fellow top 5 teams and 5 or 4 against 6th/7th placed teams. They may also get another one against one of the bottom 3 teams.

Uncertainty about numbers of games is due to the 28 regular season games being spread across 9 opponents. In the absence of a schedule beyond Round 16, I don't know which opponent each team will end up playing 4 times instead of 3.

The Hawks have played and beaten Kings twice. Kings have played and beaten Wildcats twice. Wildcats have played and beaten Hawks twice.

3rd/4th/5th may end up being decided by whether and which pairing(s) of these teams end up playing each other 4 times instead of 3.

That said, I lean towards Sydney and Perth making the 4 and Illawarra missing out.

The Hawks have had a relatively easy draw so far and not done as well as they should have. They're 8-1 against the bottom 3 sides, and only 3-6 against the rest of the league. While they have a good road record (5-2), 3 of those road wins were against bottom 3 teams. At the same time, their home record includes 4 losses and only 1 win against top 5 teams.

We really need to all agree that until such time they miss the playoffs, the Perth Wildcats and any Goorj coached NBL side are guaranteed to make the playoffs.

No ifs or buts.

We shall call it "the law of nature"

Yep, this topic is akin to a tabloid headline - pure click bait. Got to come up with something though when you've overused the bullet train card.

Wildcats are tracking similarly as in 2020 when they won the title.

2022
Home 4-1; Road 6-5

2020
Home 11-3; Road 8-6

I agree with Perth not making the top-4. Yes they will have 9 home games in a row, but this ain't a cupcake league.

Saw Perth lose twice in Melbourne. If they can beat Melbourne United this Thursday night then they have a good chance.

Gleeson would win the championship with this team. I'm not ruling them out, Sydney clear favourites for mine while Adams stays healthy.

Certainly not intended to be clickbait. Since their easy run of:

V Adelaide
V Cairns
V Brisbane
V Brisbane
V Tasmania
@ Cairns

To start the year, they are 5-5. They're not good enough for mine.

Played Sydney, Illawarra, se Melbourne and now Melbourne on Thursday, played the top four teams twice away from home and not with a full team for all the games.

I'm going with the NBL "law of nature" for now.

Perth to make it off their 9 remaining home games. Goorj to turn the Hawks around.

That would mean the Kings- who have won 8 of their last 9- will miss out. Big call. But with 5 serious contenders and 4 spots, someone good has to miss out.

Actually SEM? They only have 5 home games left? What's their top 5/ bottom 5 schedule break down?

In all honesty, its too close to predict this season, but 9 home games in a row without travel id be pretty confident in backing Perth to finish top 4. If they can go 2-1 in the last 3 away games I think they will be safe.

Further to my above post... taking a look at the numbers for the 5 teams fighting for a top 4 finish

PPG
Perth - 89
United - 87.95
Hawks - 87.39
SEM - 85.53
Syd - 83.06

Points Against
United - 78.06
Perth - 82.25
Syd - 82.28
SEM - 83.18
Hawks - 84.45

So best offensive team and second best defensive out of the top 5, writing off Perth all things considered sounds more like what we normally hear this time of the season before they go on a big run and seal the deal for another finals birth.

Very hard to see the Wildcats not making it IMO, although this is a very different Wildcats squad from usual.

From the current top 5 teams I don't trust SEM and feel like at opening tip off they are as likely to lose to a bottom 4 team as they are to beat a top 4 team, Hawks very one dimensional and heavily rely on their jump shots dropping, Kings have leaned heavily on late game heroics and could easily have dropped nearly half the games in their current win streak, and for Perth they are heavily leaning on Cotton as usual while also not looking Wildcats-esque on D or the glass. United are the only team in the top 4 that I think are an absolute lock.

United are the only team in the top 4 that I think are an absolute lock.

Melbourne United could drop both games in Round 15. Perth and Phoenix have troubled United the most this season.

Both exciting games, can't wait to go!

Further to my above post... taking a look at the numbers for the 5 teams fighting for a top 4 finish

PPG
Perth - 89
United - 87.95
Hawks - 87.39
SEM - 85.53
Syd - 83.06

Points Against
United - 78.06
Perth - 82.25
Syd - 82.28
SEM - 83.18
Hawks - 84.45

So best offensive team and second best defensive out of the top 5,

Koberulz, what do you think will happen come season end? Perth to make the 4 or miss out?

That's really interesting that Perth is #1 in offensive efficiency.

I am no expert but by the eye the offence looks worse under Scomo, there is less movement and more iso.

Do the stats above include their 3 game losing streak?

I read an article somewhere where Scomo was getting fed up with the criticism of his offence, but not his defence and rebounding .

If Perth were ever to drop out of the 4, the NBL will introduce play-in, Perth will win when it counts and make it to the granny

I agree if that happened.. NBL always have Perth's back lol!

Play-ins make no sense. It's just the first round of the playoffs.

"So it seems like offensive performance is more of an indicator than defensive performance."

It is this year, because defence is being favoured by the way the game is called, it's the teams that can break the shackles and score that will be successful.

This will be no different to any other year, generally championship teams are above average, both defensively and offensively. It's possible to be an average team at one end and elite at the other, and win.

It's very difficult to be below average at either end and win the title.

This is how it works historically and of course, it's common sense

Another reason too why Perth deserves slightly title favouritism- the only team in the top 3 both offensively and defensively.

United are defensively elite but I do think their offense could become a weakness in a 5 game playoff grind. Only JLA and CG are real quality scorers who have a proven ability to win games for you in a half court setting. Agada hasn't proven himself there.

I don't really see Law as selfish at all, he's here to help Cotton carry the offensive load so he needs to get his too to be at his best. No different from Prather or Terrico, if Law is selfish then so were those guys. Law also grabs boards, and plays decent D which are bonuses to his offense. Cotton and Law are the best 2 offensive players in the league so it doesn't surprise me they have the best overall offensive rating. Bundle that up with Blanchfield getting back to full strength you now have 3 legitimate scorers with everyone else playing their role. Sounds like a recipe for finals to me...

NBL should scrap play-ins and bring back quarterfinals!

A: "It is this year, because defence is being favoured by the way the game is called, it's the teams that can break the shackles and score that will be successful."

B: "This will be no different to any other year,"


It already is. The teams that made the playoffs in 2020, a high-scoring year, were ranked 8th, 1st, 3rd and 6th offensively.

They were ranked 1st, 3rd, 2nd and 4th defensively.

This season, the current top four teams are ranked 1st, 7th, 4th and 5th defensively.

They are ranked 4th, 3rd, 1st and 2nd offensively. The way the game is being called has basically reversed those rankings.

This post didn't age well

Still hanging on to that delusion Manu?

Law needs to be less selfish. Leave some rebounds for the other players, dude.

Bullet Train
Bullet Train v2
Now this hot take.

Can't wait for next season's prediction!

Manu this aged well. Just got the Phx and Tassie wrong for the top 4!

He also authored this one a couple of days later though:

https://www.hoops.com.au/forum/49836-perth-will-make-playoffs/

Gee wasn't this on the money