Manu Fieldel
Two years ago

Perth won't make playoffs

You heard it here first.
Perth is the worst team in the top 4, and home court won't be enough to save them from being knocked out of playoffs.

In no particular order:

United
Kings
SEM
Hawks

Perth

Topic #49821 | Report this topic


Sebastian  
Two years ago

I'm no Perth fan but with 9 home games to end the season, you sir are an absolute moron.

Reply #886579 | Report this post


koberulz  
Two years ago

If Cotton gets injured, they're done.

Gleeson had the coaching chops to get around critical absences, Morrison's entire gameplan is "hope Cotton is good enough to win". They have nothing else. Seeing a Wildcats team in the bottom half of the league defensively, including being dead last in defensive rebounding, is an embarrassment.

Reply #886581 | Report this post


Gk82  
Two years ago

Like many teams, take creek or Goulding adams ect they won't be winning games as well ffs people are so d&$b

Reply #886583 | Report this post


Bol  
Two years ago

Vic Lawl thinks he's good enough to win. Thats half the problem because he plays selfish most of the time. Had a good one today though.

Blind freddy can see rebounding is a major issue so i dont know why GM wont pull the trigger already and replace Frazier. Its a waste of an import spot at the moment.

I wouldn't go so far to say they wont make the top 4 but they wont compete with United with the current defensive and rebounding issues.

Reply #886584 | Report this post


Luuuc  
Two years ago

Hmm, I don't think Law comes off as selfish at all. It's important for us that he stays proactive. Plus he's very important to us on the boards.

Cats could conceivably finish outside the top 4 but personally I think we're looking ok so far, considering the mammoth road trip that has made up most of the season. First game after it and we already appeared fresher & better to me. Blanchfield has been injured/struggling for most of the season but has looked progressively better in recent games. He's a big piece when he's going.

The big question mark is Frazier II

Reply #886585 | Report this post


koberulz  
Two years ago

I don't think Law comes off as selfish at all. It's important for us that he stays proactive.
You didn't watch the Sydney game? And I don't think it's the first time he's done something like that.

He's also constantly gone at the refs, headbutted someone, and I'm pretty sure there was another incident after that as well. Really feels like a guy who never would have sniffed a Wildcats jersey under the old regime.

Like many teams, take creek or Goulding adams ect they won't be winning games as well ffs people are so d&$b
There's a big difference between not being as good and getting absolutely pantsed by Adelaide, though.

Reply #886587 | Report this post


Just  
Two years ago

Law's biggest problem is at times he has questionable shot selection. I don't think he's ever seen a shot he doesn't like.

Reply #886588 | Report this post


LV  
Two years ago

Perth are 10-6, Matt Hodgsons only played 9 sporadic games, and they have a bunch of home games to finish the season.

I'd say they'll very likely finish top 4 and they're probably still championship favourites for mine. Just a whisker ahead of United.

Last time they played United, JLA feasted on their small front court (minus Hodgson) and United only won by 6. In Melbourne.

Reply #886590 | Report this post


hoopie  
Two years ago

Agree totally, LV

Reply #886591 | Report this post


Observer  
Two years ago

Perth not going to make finals



Think again, home games to come !

They won't miss finals again .

Reply #886596 | Report this post


Cram  
Two years ago

"You heard it here first."

Actually I believe we've been hearing it for about 20 years. They've always been wrong too

Reply #886597 | Report this post


PeterJohn  
Two years ago

Perth have 9 home games left. Sydney have 2 and Illawarra have 3.

Perth are 4-1 at home. Kings are 9-3 at home and Illawarra are 6-5 at home.

Perth have 5 or 6 games left against other top 5 teams, plus 7 or 6 against bottom 5 teams (with at least 4 against bottom 2 teams).
Sydney have 3 or 4 games left against fellow top 5 teams and 7 or 6 against bottom 5 teams (with at least 5 of those against bottom 3 teams).
Illawarra have 5 or 6 games left against fellow top 5 teams and 5 or 4 against 6th/7th placed teams. They may also get another one against one of the bottom 3 teams.

Uncertainty about numbers of games is due to the 28 regular season games being spread across 9 opponents. In the absence of a schedule beyond Round 16, I don't know which opponent each team will end up playing 4 times instead of 3.

The Hawks have played and beaten Kings twice. Kings have played and beaten Wildcats twice. Wildcats have played and beaten Hawks twice.

3rd/4th/5th may end up being decided by whether and which pairing(s) of these teams end up playing each other 4 times instead of 3.

That said, I lean towards Sydney and Perth making the 4 and Illawarra missing out.

The Hawks have had a relatively easy draw so far and not done as well as they should have. They're 8-1 against the bottom 3 sides, and only 3-6 against the rest of the league. While they have a good road record (5-2), 3 of those road wins were against bottom 3 teams. At the same time, their home record includes 4 losses and only 1 win against top 5 teams.

Reply #886603 | Report this post


KET  
Two years ago

We really need to all agree that until such time they miss the playoffs, the Perth Wildcats and any Goorj coached NBL side are guaranteed to make the playoffs.

No ifs or buts.

Reply #886604 | Report this post


KET  
Two years ago

We shall call it "the law of nature"

Reply #886605 | Report this post


Perthworld  
Two years ago

Yep, this topic is akin to a tabloid headline - pure click bait. Got to come up with something though when you've overused the bullet train card.

Reply #886606 | Report this post


Anonymightymouse  
Two years ago

Wildcats are tracking similarly as in 2020 when they won the title.

2022
Home 4-1; Road 6-5

2020
Home 11-3; Road 8-6

Reply #886611 | Report this post


NBLTigers  
Two years ago

I agree with Perth not making the top-4. Yes they will have 9 home games in a row, but this ain't a cupcake league.

Saw Perth lose twice in Melbourne. If they can beat Melbourne United this Thursday night then they have a good chance.

Reply #886616 | Report this post


Dunkman  
Two years ago

Gleeson would win the championship with this team. I'm not ruling them out, Sydney clear favourites for mine while Adams stays healthy.

Reply #886617 | Report this post


Manu Fieldel  
Two years ago

Certainly not intended to be clickbait. Since their easy run of:

V Adelaide
V Cairns
V Brisbane
V Brisbane
V Tasmania
@ Cairns

To start the year, they are 5-5. They're not good enough for mine.

Reply #886619 | Report this post


Gk82  
Two years ago

Played Sydney, Illawarra, se Melbourne and now Melbourne on Thursday, played the top four teams twice away from home and not with a full team for all the games.

Reply #886633 | Report this post


LV  
Two years ago

I'm going with the NBL "law of nature" for now.

Perth to make it off their 9 remaining home games. Goorj to turn the Hawks around.

That would mean the Kings- who have won 8 of their last 9- will miss out. Big call. But with 5 serious contenders and 4 spots, someone good has to miss out.

Reply #886658 | Report this post


LV  
Two years ago

Actually SEM? They only have 5 home games left? What's their top 5/ bottom 5 schedule break down?

Reply #886659 | Report this post


Big Fudge  
Two years ago

In all honesty, its too close to predict this season, but 9 home games in a row without travel id be pretty confident in backing Perth to finish top 4. If they can go 2-1 in the last 3 away games I think they will be safe.

Reply #886671 | Report this post


Big Fudge  
Two years ago

Further to my above post... taking a look at the numbers for the 5 teams fighting for a top 4 finish

PPG
Perth - 89
United - 87.95
Hawks - 87.39
SEM - 85.53
Syd - 83.06

Points Against
United - 78.06
Perth - 82.25
Syd - 82.28
SEM - 83.18
Hawks - 84.45

So best offensive team and second best defensive out of the top 5, writing off Perth all things considered sounds more like what we normally hear this time of the season before they go on a big run and seal the deal for another finals birth.

Reply #886672 | Report this post


AngusH  
Two years ago

Very hard to see the Wildcats not making it IMO, although this is a very different Wildcats squad from usual.

From the current top 5 teams I don't trust SEM and feel like at opening tip off they are as likely to lose to a bottom 4 team as they are to beat a top 4 team, Hawks very one dimensional and heavily rely on their jump shots dropping, Kings have leaned heavily on late game heroics and could easily have dropped nearly half the games in their current win streak, and for Perth they are heavily leaning on Cotton as usual while also not looking Wildcats-esque on D or the glass. United are the only team in the top 4 that I think are an absolute lock.

Reply #886674 | Report this post


Luuuc  
Two years ago

United are the only team in the top 4 that I think are an absolute lock.

Yep, I agree.
The next 4 should all quite realistically be shooting for a title. But one of them isn't even going to make the semis so the pressure is already starting to build.

Reply #886677 | Report this post


NBLTigers  
Two years ago

Melbourne United could drop both games in Round 15. Perth and Phoenix have troubled United the most this season.

Both exciting games, can't wait to go!

Reply #886679 | Report this post


koberulz  
Two years ago

Further to my above post... taking a look at the numbers for the 5 teams fighting for a top 4 finish

PPG
Perth - 89
United - 87.95
Hawks - 87.39
SEM - 85.53
Syd - 83.06

Points Against
United - 78.06
Perth - 82.25
Syd - 82.28
SEM - 83.18
Hawks - 84.45
It's 2022, why are we still using PPG to measure offensive and defensive ability?

ORtg
Perth - 114.6
Hawks - 112.6
SEM - 111.1
United - 109.5
Syd - 104.8

DRtg
United - 97.2
Syd - 103.8
Perth - 105.9
SEM - 108.0
Hawks 108.8

So best offensive team and second best defensive out of the top 5,
They're the third-best defensive team out of the top 5, and the 4th-best defensive team in the league.

Interestingly, offensively the top five teams on the ladder hold five of the top six spots (the Bullets are fifth), while on the defensive end of the floor the Hawks are second-worst in the league and the Taipans and JackJumpers are both in the top five. So it seems like offensive performance is more of an indicator than defensive performance.

Reply #886680 | Report this post


Big Fudge  
Two years ago

Koberulz, what do you think will happen come season end? Perth to make the 4 or miss out?

Reply #886682 | Report this post


LoveBroker  
Two years ago

That's really interesting that Perth is #1 in offensive efficiency.

I am no expert but by the eye the offence looks worse under Scomo, there is less movement and more iso.

Do the stats above include their 3 game losing streak?

I read an article somewhere where Scomo was getting fed up with the criticism of his offence, but not his defence and rebounding .

Reply #886683 | Report this post


KET  
Two years ago

If Perth were ever to drop out of the 4, the NBL will introduce play-in, Perth will win when it counts and make it to the granny

Reply #886685 | Report this post


NBLTigers  
Two years ago

I agree if that happened.. NBL always have Perth's back lol!

Reply #886686 | Report this post


koberulz  
Two years ago

Play-ins make no sense. It's just the first round of the playoffs.

Reply #886689 | Report this post


Anonymightymouse  
Two years ago

"So it seems like offensive performance is more of an indicator than defensive performance."

It is this year, because defence is being favoured by the way the game is called, it's the teams that can break the shackles and score that will be successful.

Reply #886704 | Report this post


LV  
Two years ago

This will be no different to any other year, generally championship teams are above average, both defensively and offensively. It's possible to be an average team at one end and elite at the other, and win.

It's very difficult to be below average at either end and win the title.

This is how it works historically and of course, it's common sense

Another reason too why Perth deserves slightly title favouritism- the only team in the top 3 both offensively and defensively.

United are defensively elite but I do think their offense could become a weakness in a 5 game playoff grind. Only JLA and CG are real quality scorers who have a proven ability to win games for you in a half court setting. Agada hasn't proven himself there.

Reply #886705 | Report this post


Senator11  
Two years ago

I don't really see Law as selfish at all, he's here to help Cotton carry the offensive load so he needs to get his too to be at his best. No different from Prather or Terrico, if Law is selfish then so were those guys. Law also grabs boards, and plays decent D which are bonuses to his offense. Cotton and Law are the best 2 offensive players in the league so it doesn't surprise me they have the best overall offensive rating. Bundle that up with Blanchfield getting back to full strength you now have 3 legitimate scorers with everyone else playing their role. Sounds like a recipe for finals to me...

Reply #886713 | Report this post


NBLTigers  
Two years ago

NBL should scrap play-ins and bring back quarterfinals!

Reply #886734 | Report this post


Anonymightymouse  
Two years ago

A: "It is this year, because defence is being favoured by the way the game is called, it's the teams that can break the shackles and score that will be successful."

B: "This will be no different to any other year,"


It already is. The teams that made the playoffs in 2020, a high-scoring year, were ranked 8th, 1st, 3rd and 6th offensively.

They were ranked 1st, 3rd, 2nd and 4th defensively.

This season, the current top four teams are ranked 1st, 7th, 4th and 5th defensively.

They are ranked 4th, 3rd, 1st and 2nd offensively. The way the game is being called has basically reversed those rankings.

Reply #886777 | Report this post


Sebastian  
Two years ago

This post didn't age well

Reply #886802 | Report this post


Heaters  
Two years ago

Still hanging on to that delusion Manu?

Reply #886805 | Report this post


Luuuc  
Two years ago

Law needs to be less selfish. Leave some rebounds for the other players, dude.

Reply #886806 | Report this post


Perthworld  
Two years ago

Bullet Train
Bullet Train v2
Now this hot take.

Can't wait for next season's prediction!

Reply #886807 | Report this post


The Big Duke  
Two years ago

Manu this aged well. Just got the Phx and Tassie wrong for the top 4!

Reply #890328 | Report this post


Perthworld  
Two years ago

He also authored this one a couple of days later though:

https://www.hoops.com.au/forum/49836-perth-will-make-playoffs/

Reply #890329 | Report this post


Manu Fieldel  
Two years ago

Gee wasn't this on the money

Reply #890333 | Report this post




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