Isaac
Two years ago

NBL ladder compared to championship odds

Early days, but I wondered how much relevance championship odds were to gauging performing and under-performing NBL teams.

The current ladder is:

Kings
Breakers
Taipans
Phoenix
JackJumpers
United
Wildcats
36ers
Bullets
Hawks

The betting odds favour:

Kings
Phoenix
Bullets
36ers
Wildcats
United
Breakers
Taipans
JackJumpers
Hawks

Breakers look to be clearly over-performing as well as the Taipans and JackJumpers, Adelaide the opposite. But why are the bookies backing Brisbane? Earlier money assuming more from Baynes, or expecting a roster upgrade?

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Jimmyhooper15  
Two years ago

I don't see anyone beating the kings in a series but my guess if anyone could challenge them

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Jimmyhooper15  
Two years ago

Oh I didn't finish my sentence is a healthy Phoenix team. Adelaide just lost a lot of scoring with Randle gone and Perth is to cotton reliant.

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Dunkman  
Two years ago

Kings, daylight, if United new import goes possibly. SEM always seem to have injuries to key players.

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Dunkman  
Two years ago

^^^goes well

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LV  
Two years ago

Brisbane had double figure leads in most of those first 5 games they lost.

The bookie optimism is probably based in anticipation of continued improvement from Sobey, and more consistent good performances from Baynes. Plus a likely boost from a new import.

Personally I would have Brisbane more like $10 though not $5.50. Still an unproven group with an unproven coach and a 3-5 record. Sobey is 32 and Baynes almost 36 and both coming off injuries, so it remains to be seen whether either of them perform at All-NBL level in the 2nd half of the season.

Value in the odds lies with NZ ($12), Cairns ($26) and Tassie ($41). $41 really isn't bad for a team who made the GF last season, are sitting at 5-5 and has had more injuries than most (yes they scraped into the playoffs and scraped into the GF but they made it).

Sydney deserving favorites but anything can happen in basketball.

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Manu Fieldel  
Two years ago

Tassie genuinely could win the championship. The disrespect is mental considering that they're clearly more talented than last season and they have Will Magnay to come (I say that, but there's something going on, and I wouldn't hold my breath on him being available at all this season).

Taipans definitely won't come close, even if they maximise McCall when he integrates with the rotation.

SEM has the firepower to beat Sydney for sure, and they have the players in Williams and Creek to score in a slow, halfcourt game. Sydney is the best transition team, so they wouldn't like a slow game. Tassie would match up nicely with Sydney frankly. It'd be a more competitive GF than last season.

Brisbane has two needs but one import slot remaining - a point guard, which Sam McKinnon promised in the preseason, and a genuine wing. They lead the league in turnovers and their bigs are put in weird positions which often lead to turnovers. They need some damn direction but of course they won't get the point guard. Their 3-guard line-up could cause problems in the playoffs.

Perth is cooked. Really nice to see.

Hawks, yikes.

Adelaide aren't coached well enough to contend, and NZ just aren't talented enough with Rupert out for the season.

United look like a play-in knockout.

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Ben  
Two years ago

Bullets, lol. I thought you'd surely misread that Isaac until I saw it myself.

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Isaac  
Two years ago

I've been out of the country and barely paying attention to the league for a couple of months. Haven't watched a game, but I'd seen that Brisbane started slow and Baynes wasn't exactly dominating.

In their last game, he had serviceable stats, but against what bigs? Tasmania doesn't have a menacing frontcourt, right?

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Perthworld  
Two years ago

Part of why the Bullets odds are set so low is volume-based due to n00bs betting on them due to Baynes.

I'll never forget how so many suckers piled in on a rookie LaMelo to be NBL MVP.

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