hoopjunkie
Last year

VJBL Predictions

There's a lot of movement across VJBL teams this coming season (in all age groups). Wondering if there are favorites to win this early based from the movements. List you predictions and let's compare the results by end of next season!

u12 Boys/Girls
u14 Boys/Girls
u16 Boys/Girls
u18 Boys/Girls

Topic #51518 | Report this topic


Phizzer  
Last year

U16 boys - can't touch Nunawading, the rest is academic.

U14 boys - be Casey and Knox again the teams to beat. Nunawading and Eltham got stronger and should make VC. Bulleen and Sandringham got weaker but should still make VC. Dandenong and Westgate should make VC, which leaves Kilsyth, Hawthorn, McKinnon, Geelong and Frankston chasing final spots.

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XXXX  
Last year

We are a long way from the finals and a lot of water to go under the bridge, but my predictions for the girls are: u12 no idea, u14 Kilsyth to win (Frankston came runner up in u12, not sure how girls have left in this age group but they have been gutted in 16's & 18's). In u16's I think Dandenong will win due to the influx of girls from Nunawading who won in u14, Nunawading will be strong, Sandringham have been strengthened with 3 Frankston imports and have a very good coach in this age group, they will be tough to beat, Casey will be up there too. In 18's Melb have added Dimarco, Schwarz and Anarson after getting Whiteman last year, they will be clear favorites, Nunawading won it in u16 and will be difficult to beat, Dandenong's VC winning backcourt last season was all bottom age they will be up there again I would expect. Fagan has moved to Casey apparently, once Dakic is back playing they will be a good side but lack of shooting might hurt them against the other 3.

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DeepWombat  
Last year

U16 Boys: Nunawading easily

U18 Boys: Dandenong or Knox, depending on how many boys get snapped up by the AIS.

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LHY  
Last year

Did anyone have any practice games last Friday night? What were the results?

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By the sea  
Last year

Sandy v Nunawading
Girls
Winners:
U/12. - Nunawading
U/14 - Sandy
U/16 - Sandy
U18 - Nunawading

Reply #929055 | Report this post


Karma Basketball  
Last year

No love for U/20s ?

Reply #929058 | Report this post


By the sea  
Last year

20s a 2nd tier competition to Youth League.

Reply #929059 | Report this post


Bballfan  
Last year

Are all predicted winners likely to win NJCs too?

Reply #929068 | Report this post


KD35  
Last year

Nunawading U14 (1) Boys beat Sandringham, I'm quite sure the U16 (1) Boys did as well.

Heard from a few people that Dandy U14 (1) Boys lost to Casey by over 60 last week?

Reply #929100 | Report this post


Burgundy  
Last year

Casey boys won U12 championship 2 years in a roll, so 14 boys must be strong, could win 3 titles this year

Dandenong 14 girls are strong this year, but Kilsyth still No 1,

Dandenong 16 girls & 18 girls are better than last year, hope to see them in final as well




Reply #929108 | Report this post


XXXX  
Last year

Big call on Dandenong 18 girls being stronger than last year given they won it.

I just saw the Knox u18 boys list, they are stacked and I believe Dande have a couple of handy imports as well, it will be a fun game when they play each other.

Reply #929109 | Report this post


Phizzer  
Last year

Bulleen took care of Waverley in U14 and U16 boys comfortably last week.

Playing Nunawading this week.

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Karma Basketball  
Last year

https://www.hoops.com.au/forum/51518-vjbl-predictions/#p929059

U/20s is not a second tier competition to Youth League.

U/20s is part of VJBL.

Youth League and Big V is an U/23s competition.

The confusion arises because many associations combine Tryouts for U/20 and YL.

U/20s has not received much love for the past few years because of a significant drop off in numbers of players after U/18. Some of that would be due to the impact of the pandemic over the past few years. And in the case of the Girls, the attraction of AFLW.

However, more and more juniors are coming into Basketball now. So we might see greater numbers sticking with Basketball.

One thing, if I understand things correctly, a VJBL Season is effectively completed by the end of September. So players who are born in October, November or December could potentially play an entire VJBL Season in the lower age group. (IE A player that turns 18 AFTER 1st October would be 17 for the entire VJBL season and could play U/18 in the year they turn 18yo).

Too many sports advantage players who are born earlier in the calendar year. Would be nice if BV refined their system to cater for this. You would still get a drop off typically because of things like players prioritising VCE et al. However an extra season of VJBL for players who turn 18yo late in the year would be very valuable.

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By the sea  
Last year

If a 17, 18 or 19 year old are any good they are playing Youth League not U/20s.
U/20s us not a great standard especially in the girls comp.

Reply #929268 | Report this post


Karma Basketball  
Last year

I agree U20/s probably hasn't been a great standard over the past few years. But I would hope BV sees a huge opportunity to develop it further to retain players in the sport rather than see a lot of them leave for Aussie Rules (especially the girls and AFLW).

Domestic basketball is often seen to be more social play, more for fun.

Youth League / Big V etc. seems to be for aspiring professional players who decide to remain in Australia rather than pursue overseas opportunities like US College etc.

Surely there is a place between those two levels for players who treat the competition in a serious manner but don't necessarily aspire to be professional. Or perhaps are adopting a wait and see approach. These players may only get a few minutes every season at YL level.

You seem to be inferring that the doorways to higher levels of the sport in Australia close once a player reaches 17yo or 18yo. If they haven't "made it" by that point, they never will. If that is the case, no wonder so many players - especially girls - are jumping ship and heading off to Aussie Rules.

Reply #929287 | Report this post


Phizzer  
Last year

I believe U14 Bulleen boys beat Nunawading comfortably in a practice match on Friday. Interesting as Nunawading coach and starting point guard ex-Bulleen.

U16 boys, Nunawading won by 13, with some players missing.

Reply #929525 | Report this post


LC  
Last year

Bulleen vs Nunawading girls

U12 - Spectres by around 50!
U14 - Boomers in a close one
U16 - Spectres
U18 - Spectres

Reply #929528 | Report this post


Juice  
Last year

Girls

12's - Dandy
14's - Casey
16's - Casey / Sandringham
18's - Melbourne / Sandringham

Boys

12's - Dandy
14's - Casey
16's - Frankston / Dandy
18's - Dandy / Knox

Reply #929537 | Report this post


Bluey  
Last year

are these your predictions for this season Juice? 16's boys is way off, Spectres are the team to beat there, Frankston have lost almost their whole team from 2 years ago, they'll be lucky to make VJL1. Dandenong U16 girls will be hard to beat, but yes Sabres will be there too. Melbourne are loaded in the U18 girls. And Casey U14 girls are not bad but I wouldn't lock them in by any means.

Reply #929542 | Report this post


LHY  
Last year

@Phizzzer who was missing from Nunawading/Bullen in 16's? My predictions would be


Girls

12's - Dandenong
14's - Kilsyth
16's - Dandenong
18's - Melbourne

Boys

12's - Dandenong
14's - Casey
16's - Nunawading
18's - Knox

Reply #929551 | Report this post


By the sea  
Last year

Sandringham U/14 Girls defeated Nunawading, Dandenong and Casey in their 3 practice games.
Kilsyth still the team to beat.

Reply #929554 | Report this post


Hoops 89  
Last year

@Phizzer Nuna 16 boys had full team against Bulleen. They will still clearly be the team to beat but they don't look as dominant as they were in under 14's.

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Cat91  
Last year

Girls

12's - Sandringham
14's - Kilsyth
16's - Dandenong
18's - Melbourne

Movement between clubs have strengthened the likes of Melbourne, Casey, Sandringham and Dandenong in the 18 girls. Nunawading will also be very competitive.
Kilsyth 14 girls will be strong but competition will be catching up

Boys

12's - Dandenong
14's - Casey
16's - Nunawading
18's - Knox

Nunawading 16 boys stacked with homegrown plus imports and will be hard to beat.
16 Knox boys lost to Kilsyth by only 2 points which is a huge improvement from 14's with some good imports. Knox u18 boys won easily against Kilsyth.

Reply #929565 | Report this post


Phizzer  
Last year

Apologies, I was told U16 Nunawading boys had players missing, guess not.

Any team with Wilson and Dammers be hard to beat, but unlike 14's, I think zone and others catching up will make them less dominant, but still favourites.

Any others news from practice match results?

Reply #929568 | Report this post


hoopjunkie  
Last year

@Phizzer

I heard that the Nunawading u14 boys didn't have one of their best players against Bulleen and that Bulleen kid transferred to Eltham (not Nunawading) together with his older brother.

Reply #929569 | Report this post


hoopjunkie  
Last year

Keilor u14.1 boys are looking strong this year and should be a top 4 team.

Reply #929570 | Report this post


Manders  
Last year

Anyone know when fixture is released? Or where the rankings of teams are? Thanks!

Reply #929571 | Report this post


Jichael Mordan  
Last year

@Manders.. Hopefully soon, all I know about grading is that it's based upon the clubs performance/position from 2 seasons ago.

Reply #929572 | Report this post


LC  
Last year

Except u12s...

Reply #929574 | Report this post


Burgundy  
Last year

still hard to believe Bulleen boys win over 30 points as Bulleen best player wasn't play that much

Reply #929577 | Report this post


Phizzer  
Last year

@hoopjunkie correct about transfer to Eltham. Another kid transferred from Bulleen to Nunawading,

Not sure who was missing from U14 Nunawading boys, but they have a deep squad now. 30 points probably not realistic once grading starts, but time will tell.


Curious about Keilor, they were VJL1 in U12's, they have 7 FDP kids, but only 3 in in their 14.1 team?

Sorry, Casey, Knox, Dandenong, Bulleen, Camberwell and maybe Nunawading and Eltham are top 4 candidates, can't see Keilor having to get through Sandringham, Kilsyth, Frankston, McKinnon etc to compete higher.

Reply #929578 | Report this post


XXXX  
Last year

I wouldn't be reading to much into results of practice matches. The coaches should, and mostly will be, trying to get everyone court time and time and running the offences and defenses they will be using during the season. Things change considerably when the emphasis becomes winning.

Reply #929579 | Report this post


hoopjunkie  
Last year

@phizzer

Yep correct they were the VJBL1 Champions, the year they were under-12s but got 2 of the better players from Westgate now.

If I'm not mistaken, Keilor has 4 boys in FDP (2 coming in from Westgate), plus 1 kid who got selected to represent Victoria in School Sports Australia 12U. So that's a competitive starting 5 right there.

We'll see how they'll fare in the coming Diamond Valley tournament.

Reply #929580 | Report this post


hoopjunkie  
Last year

ooops, just checked and 1 of the players that transferred from Westgate is bottom aged. Not sure if he'd be impactful this year.

Reply #929581 | Report this post


Manders  
Last year

I would put little store into practice matches, and perhaps less store into FDP / SDP selections which are fraught.

Reply #929582 | Report this post


Wilbur  
Last year

How on earth are Sandy fitting in 3 imports in u16s into 1 team.
Or are they getting a 'special' exemption like Dandenong did last year in the 12s and 14s.

Reply #929689 | Report this post


Footloose  
Last year

I think you'll find that Sandy only have 2 imports in their 1’s Wilbur

Reply #929698 | Report this post


Juice  
Last year

Casey 16 girls beat dandy by 30 in their practice match.

Sandy 14g beat Casey by 2. Casey only had 7 players missing their gun

Frankston has reloaded and will be fine

Reply #929702 | Report this post


Footloose  
Last year

Casey 16 girls beat Dandy or Sandy by 30 Juice? Casey have a gun big in the 14's, is that who you mean or do they have 2 stars? Frankston will be very strong in the 14’s, not sure about the rest.

Reply #929704 | Report this post


LC  
Last year

Kilsyth vs Nunawading Girls
12 - Spectres easily
14 - Cobras easily
16 - Spectres easily

Reply #929726 | Report this post


Footloose  
Last year

how many of their guns from 2 years ago do Spectres 16 1's still have? Aren't they all at Dandenong?

Reply #929727 | Report this post


LC  
Last year

Spectres had 2 teams in top 10 two years ago...still a VERY talented group.

Reply #929728 | Report this post


TP  
Last year

These are practise games you do understand... Like so many variables go into a practise game.

In two weeks we will see who is up and about come grading phase 1 games

Reply #929729 | Report this post


Wilbur  
Last year

Have Sandringham Blues finally released their team lists.

They seem to have picked up an awful lot of Frankston players by all reports in numerous age groups.

Kilsyth seemed to have recruited well in the 14s age group. Like they needed to get better.

And whilst we're at it, Dandenong might as well rename themselves too.

Reply #929730 | Report this post


By the sea  
Last year

Saw Casey U/8 girls have picked up a great Frankston player. The Frankston girls have apparently left for the same reason??

Reply #929739 | Report this post


Pud  
Last year

Lots of Frankston kids leaving because of a certain coach. She may have also played for her country!

Reply #929741 | Report this post


hoopjunkie  
Last year

I wont be surprise if Melton 12.1 boys make VC this year.

Reply #930485 | Report this post


XXXX  
Last year

Frankston 12.1 boys must be very good, going off the scores from the Southern Pen tournament.

Reply #930488 | Report this post


SonicBoomer  
Last year

Very impressive scores from the Frankston 12.1 boys. The best player from last season's Chelsea Gulls 12.1 team has joined them this season and is one to watch - Braxton Harris. And Anton Hannigan looks like an absolute gun too

Reply #930536 | Report this post


DeepWombat  
Last year

Casey 14.1 boys look pretty strong

Reply #930537 | Report this post


Asthetic  
Last year

"I wont be surprise if Melton 12.1 boys make VC this year"

Impossible unfortunately due to initial ranking.

Reply #930544 | Report this post


hoopjunkie  
Last year

@asthetic oh! even if they win they will all their grading games? I saw a practice game of them in YT and they have a tall line up, which is often the determining advantage at this age level.

Reply #930621 | Report this post


MagicBird  
Last year

@hoopjunkie - according to grading map, 1 is the highest they can get to if they are pool 4B.

Reply #930628 | Report this post


hoopjunkie  
Last year

ok gotcha! Thanks for the info

Reply #930633 | Report this post


hoopjunkie  
Last year

@DeepWomnbat

The Casey14.1 boys looks like the Dandy14.1 boys of last season. They'll be undefeated in VJBL.

I don't see any team beating them in VJBL unless a bunch of their core players don't play due to sickness or injury. Their starting 5 is a mismatch to any team in all positions while their 2nd unit are all starters if they transferred to any team in VJBL.

I thought that the Nunawading 14.1 boys were strong this season, since they had 2 bottom agers last season and 3 bottom agers during the Nationals, now leading the team. But they didn't pose any threat to Casey during their practice game last Friday. I spoke to 1 parent last Friday and heard Casey also beat Knox by a wide margin during their practice game. I believe that the Casey boys were also the NJC and VJBL champions during their under 12s although only maybe 3 of them are back from that group which is odd since you would think they'd bring back most from that group.

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DeepWombat  
Last year

I think you're right hoopjunkie. Well rounded, well coached team with excellent starters and a deep bench. They play unselfishly too

Reply #930691 | Report this post


By the sea  
Last year

Bendigo in U/14 girls should be in the mix for a top 4 position.

Reply #930756 | Report this post


By the sea  
Last year

Bendigo in U/14 girls should be in the mix for a top 4 position.

Reply #930757 | Report this post


SlowMoMitch  
Last year

DeepWombat - my son played u12 VC 2 seasons ago, so i am familiar with the better players in this age group. There's a kid in the Casey 14.1s that has built a reputation for being selfish.

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Footloose  
Last year

Word is that a kid in the Casey 14 1's dunked in the game last week. Anyone ever heard of a 12 year old who can dunk?

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Juice  
Last year

SlowMoMitch how quickly we forget there was also a player at Dandenong this past year that had the same reputation. How did that work out for them? They won everything . Lol

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SlowMoMitch  
Last year

Yes they did. I didnt say they didn't. I just mentioned it since DeepWombat said that the team was unselfish. I hope he is right though.

As for the Dandy14.1 last season. Everything is ok since they won right? The team could have won the Eltham-Dandy tournament also if they played unselfishly. Plus the VJBL and NJC finals wouldn't be as close as it was if they played as a team. It's not the boys fault tho, it reflects more on the coach. They did win yes, but news was there was a lot of dysfunction behind the scenes throughout the season.

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RalphieWig  
Last year

The Casey kid dunking is getting around on social media, very impressive

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DeepWombat  
Last year

I based my comment on watching them play a couple of quarters, so I could be completely off the mark on the unselfish thing, but from what I saw all of the players moved the ball well, particularly for an U14s age group team. I saw multiple kids creating scoring opportunities for others in the brief period I saw them. Of course I could have missed a player who rarely makes the decision to pass.

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Baller99  
Last year

@slowmomitch
Watching Dandy 14.1 playing NJC and VC finals on YouTube, it was perplexing to see one player taking so many shots, and so many bad shots. Especially given they have so many SDP players in the team who can shoot. Be interesting to hear what possible dysfunction you are referring to given they looked pretty awesome in their last game being Nationals GF.

Reply #931115 | Report this post


Manders  
Last year

Seems to be a lot of changes of teams at the older age groups. People moving to try and create super teams. Don't think this is a good development for VJBL, with teams having up to half of the players onto their second or third clubs. Can perhaps understand second club over the journey, but third raises flags. Clubs selling themselves as destination clubs, and it also raises questions about ability to develop and support their own. Know it’s been going on forever, but it really seems to have amplified in the last two years. Makes the club nature of the sport less meaningful.

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DeepWombat  
Last year

I don't have too much of a problem with it. These kids only get to enjoy junior basketball for a handful of years before they become adults. Most of them probably won't be playing at a serious competitive level in senior basketball (i.e. NBL1 and above). If they want to do a bit of VC-chasing so they can eventually tell their kids and grandkids that they used to be pretty good at basketball, that's up to them, let them enjoy it.

Apart from just wanting to build a super team to win, there could also be lots of other reasons for these kids to move, e.g. they think they will develop faster at the new club, they want to build greater synergies at a new club with state and/or national teammates, they don't like the roster fit at their current club and prefer it at a new club (i.e. there is a surplus at their position at their current club and a corresponding need at their new club). A coach they don't want to play for and/or a coach they do. The desire to play with players they have existing friendships with.

I agree that some clubs are out there selling themselves as "destination clubs" and putting a bit of pressure on kids and parents to come join them. I side with the kids on this one - the clubs unashamedly look to pick the best players for them - the players should also be picking the best club for themselves.

Reply #931405 | Report this post


Manders  
Last year

All good and valid points, and this is a topic on which reasonable minds may differ. All I would say is that a club should not take too much credit for a rep team with half the kids who have been developed elsewhere. I actually think it's a sign of failure in their system, although I am sure they would argue it’s a strength.

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Footloose  
Last year

The new club will take credit, the old club will take credit, the indi's trainer will take credit, the school coach will take credit, their first state coach will make out that they discovered them, BV, BQ, BSA, etc will take credit, BA will take credit, the bloke who rebounded a stray ball once will take credit.

At the end of the day, the player does the work, they get assistance from various resources along the way, but if they end up a decent player, it’s because of the work they’ve done & the sacrifices they’ve made.

Clubs don’t own players. Set up a good culture/environment with good coaching & the good players won’t want to leave, simple.

Reply #931538 | Report this post


DeepWombat  
Last year

Funny! The private trainers are the ones that make me smile. As soon as a kid gets a D1 offer they are posting like crazy, even if they only had the kid at a couple of summer camps.

Reply #931541 | Report this post


Manders  
Last year

Yes, all true. And so it can be said that a club that sets up the right culture and development pathways does not need to import players en masse. There are clubs with 40-50% of their 1s and 2s team that have played in 2 or 3 clubs. That's just getting a little silly. Next step could be a breakaway league, with all "top" players being sucked away from VJBL given reducing loyalty to clubs. Perhaps that is the shake-up BV and clubs need. Ripe for disruption.

Reply #931543 | Report this post


Juice  
Last year

Let's clarify something . It's not the clubs recruiting, it's the coaches of the individual teams and it's the kids who play together in the state programs who develop a friendship and want to play together.

Reply #931544 | Report this post


Manders  
Last year

Righto. Do I understand you to be making a connection between coaches and players in state programmes? Interesting.

Reply #931546 | Report this post


LC  
Last year

You could make an argument that some clubs have a culture of recruiting across the board, whereas others have specific coaches that are recruiting.

Reply #931548 | Report this post


hoopjunkie  
Last year

In Junior basketball, transferring of players is influenced more by the parents rather than the club, coaches or peers. There could be multiple reasons to transfer but players will go where their parents think is the best for them moving forward.

Reply #931549 | Report this post


LC  
Last year

Teams straight through to VC after tonight's games...

Girls
U12: Keilor, Camberwell, Nunawading, Casey, Dandenong, Sandringham
U14: Kilsyth, Bendigo, Bulleen, Dandenong, Sandringham, Melbourne
U16: Nunawading, Dandenong, Broadmeadows, Camberwell, Kilsyth, Sandringham
U18: Nunawading, Kilsyth, Casey, Keilor, Melbourne, Dandenong

Boys
U12: Eltham, Geelong, Sandringham, Kilsyth, Broadmeadows, Frankston
U14: Casey, Nunawading, Keilor, Bendigo, Melbourne, Dandenong
U16: Nunawading, Kilsyth, Whittlesea, Pool D TBC, Ballarat, Sandringham
U18: Frankston, Knox, Dandenong, Geelong, Waverley, Pool F TBC

Reply #931589 | Report this post


Manders  
Last year

Point proved.

Reply #931595 | Report this post


LHY  
Last year

Any teams that are looking particularly impressive?

Reply #931597 | Report this post


DeepWombat  
Last year

Casey U14 boys and Nunawading U16 boys look like they are playing in the wrong age group. Hard to see them getting beaten this season at the moment.

Reply #931598 | Report this post


By the sea  
Last year

Dandenongs recruiting in the Girls comp successfull.

Bendigo looks good in 14 Girls along with Kilsyth.

Reply #931599 | Report this post


DeepWombat  
Last year

Knox vs Dandenong looks like a good matchup in the U18 boys. I'd give a slight edge to Dandenong head to head.

Reply #931603 | Report this post


SonicBoomer  
Last year

I've seen the VJBL grading maps for the pointy end, but does anyone know how it works for pools 7-12 etc?

Reply #931606 | Report this post


LC  
Last year

Pools that deep are playing for regional grading spots.

Reply #931612 | Report this post


SonicBoomer  
Last year

Yeah, I get that it's geographic based at that level, just wondering if there's a way to work out what the crossover games would be and and how high up the kids could get

Reply #931616 | Report this post


LC  
Last year

Regional grading is a raffle.

Reply #931689 | Report this post


hoopjunkie  
Last year

@Phizzer

Looks like the Keilor 14.1 boys are straight thru VC after phase 1 of grading, smashing Bulleen, Eltham and Gippsland.

Reply #932667 | Report this post


Karma Basketball  
Last year

Complete speculation on my part. But by the time the Competition season starts it seems that each grade is constructed as follows ...

Top 3 teams
Middle 4 teams
Bottom 3 teams

Each Grade is usually won by one of the Top 3 teams.
Two of the teams in the Bottom 3 always finish in the last two places.

This becomes clearly apparent after the completion of the first half of the season (ie by the end of Round 9)

So on that basis, I think Regional Grading is not a total raffle. Teams are certainly placed in Regional Pools to minimise travel etc. But I think the Pools are also structured in such a way that teams in each pool are not evenly matched. (ie. Stronger teams are spread across Pools rather than all being placed in the same Pools. Same for weaker teams.)

Of course, I could be totally wrong but that's how it 'feels' to me.

Reply #933088 | Report this post


DeepWombat  
Earlier this year

Interesting results in U16 Boys. Dandenong, Frankston. Bulleen and Melbourne all out of VC. I wouldn't have thought that has happened for a long time, if ever.

Reply #936818 | Report this post


Manders  
Earlier this year

Extraordinary

Reply #936819 | Report this post


Manders  
Earlier this year

I see Melbourne missed both 16s and 18s boys. A shell of the place it used to be. Got to ask the question as to why they continue with the same crew. Needs an overhaul.

Reply #936826 | Report this post




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