Isaac
Years ago
Rating the NBL team schedules to date
Mark Slocombe, who compiles the NBL's excellent Fast Facts alerts each round, has put together some analysis of each team's schedule to date. It doesn't seem to factor in density of games or travel schedule, but works on ladder-ranking of opposition.
Interestingly, the hardest four schedules correlate to four teams ranking a little lower than might be expected while the three easiest schedules are held by the top three teams on the league ladder.
4.53 - Cairns Taipans (currently 8th - 6 wins, 9 losses) has played nine times already against the top 4 teams and will make it 10 from 16 with their game against the Dragons on Wednesday. It will be the third time Cairns has played the top team with three games already against the Breakers and twice against Melbourne (3rd) and Perth (4th). Four of their last 16 games will be against the current top 4 and they have destiny in their own hands in the 2nd half of the year with 3 games to come against Sydney and 2 vs Blaze, 36ers and Crocs.Outside of the obvious straggler in the Blaze, this certainly pushes the belief by many that 08/09 is one of the most even seasons in years.
4.66 Gold Coast Blaze (currently 10th 2 wins 13 losses) If you break the teams above them into thirds, the Blaze have played 6 times against the top 3, 5 times against the middle 3 and 4 times against the bottom 3. During the 2nd half of the year the Blaze has possibly the easiest run of any team playing the top 3 just once each, the middle trio 5 times and the bottom 3 teams 7 times.
4.78 Adelaide 36ers (currently 9th 5 wins 9 losses) Have 16 games to play and 10 of those will be against teams that currently have a losing record. Adelaide have played 6 of their 14 games against the top 4 and recorded 1 win and 5 losses and are 4-4 against the rest.
4.83 Townsville Crocodiles (currently 7th 5 wins 7 losses) 7 of their first 12 games has been against top 4 teams make that 8 from 13 when they host the Tigers on Wednesday. The Crocs were dealt a blow it seems pre-season when they were drawn to play South, New Zealand and Perth each 4 times. The Crocs have 2 more games against every other team in the bottom 6 to come.
5.60 Perth Wildcats (currently 4th 9 wins 6 losses) After this round is complete, 9 of their first 17 games have been against their top 4 ranked opponents. The good news for the Wildcats is that they have just 4 road games in the final 10 rounds of the competition with trips to Tigers, Dragons, Spirit and 36ers.
6.07 Wollongong Hawks (currently 5th 6 wins 7 losses) Have an even schedule with 8 games to come against top 4 teams and 7 matches against the bottom 4. The Hawks have just completed a run of 7 games where they only played teams currently ranked below them on the ladder and won 4 and lost 3. After this rounds game in Adelaide, the Hawks have to play the top ranked Dragons twice in round 12.
6.07 Sydney Spirit (currently 6th 6 wins 8 losses) Their ranking is based on the fact they have already played 9th placed Adelaide 4 times and 10th ranked Blaze twice with just one more game against the Gold Coast to go (away). Four of their six wins to date have come against Adelaide and the Gold Coast. They still have 8 of their final 16 games to come against top 4 ranked teams and of the remaining 8 games against the rest, just 3 are to be played at home.
6.08 Melbourne Tigers (currently 3rd 8 wins 4 losses) The Tigers have only played 4 times against the top 4 ranked teams but have lost all of those games. They are a perfect 8-from-8 against teams ranked between 5th and 10th. Melbourne were unlucky with their schedule being drawn to meet South, New Zealand and Perth each 4 times this year. The second half of the year has them playing 8 games against top four teams they have not yet beaten.
6.50 South Dragons (currently 1st 11 wins 3 losses) Half their games to date have been against teams outside the top six including 2 each against teams ranked 8th, 9th and last. South have played Perth twice but back in round one and played Melbourne and New Zealand once each with 5 games to go against those teams ranked 2 and 3. As far as travel goes, the Dragons have another visit to Auckland to come with a trip to Wollongong their only 'road' games against top six teams in the final 11 rounds not counting 2 'away' games to Melbourne.
6.57 New Zealand (currently 2nd 11 wins 3 losses) Has been ranked as the easiest draw to date with just 5 games against the current top 6 teams although they are a perfect 5-from-5 in those matches. The Breakers have played the bottom four teams 9 times already with 6 wins and 3 losses. The second half of the year should be a little tougher for the Auckland based team with 11 matches against the top 6 and 5 more against the bottom 4. 8 of their last 12 are on the road also but they have won a club record 5 straight away games at the present time.
