Forcey
Years ago

Chris Warren's stats without Crosswell

Ran some numbers on Chris Warren. Very interesting, amazing what Crosswell's injury has meant for him. Full details here

http://www.36reasons.net/2012/01/wanted-awesome-pg.html

Basically his FG% has gome down the toilet and he's getting less assists. Obviously it helps him having a good set-up man but didn't he come in as our intended starting PG with Crossy providing relief off the bench?

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Tornado  
Years ago

sure did! Warren is like AI.....a 2 guard in a PG body.

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Isaac  
Years ago

Shows the value in Marty signing Crosswell (a decent off-season signing) whether you want to give him that credit or not. From memory Crosswell was almost leading the league in assists when he went down. Whether the intention was to start him or not, the flexibility was there.

Warren: 15.4pts, 3.3 assists
Shannon: 9.6pts, 4.4 assists

A PG doesn't need to just deal out assists. You have to factor in that scoring difference too. Given similar shooting percentages (Warren's FG% is 1% better) and neither having a distinct advantage in W-L record, what would you prefer - 1.1 APG or 5.8 PPG?

I know you're no fan of Warren's, but raising Eddie Shannon is not a great argument against him.

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KingJames  
Years ago

Good analysis!

Another interesting stat I have found is that when Weigh has had 6 foul shots or more we have won every game (4 of our 5 games). This shows when he is actually aggressive we are in a better chance to win.

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forcey  
Years ago

I'm not a Shannon fan, just pointing out Warren isn't a real upgrade over him (besides a few points) and no-one wanted Shannon back.

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Isaac  
Years ago

Foot injury probably hampers him being aggressive.

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KingJames  
Years ago

Well it should hamper the amount of minutes he gets then.

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thomo  
Years ago

its not a few points forcey its around 65% more per game

looks a big upgrade to me

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Kobe24  
Years ago

Pre crossy post crossy, 6ers are a losing team. So this is all really a waste of breaking down stats imo

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Isaac  
Years ago

forcey, some aren't rushing to demand Warren back. There's a difference between not retaining and sacking mid-season.

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Anonymous  
Years ago

Crap article. Warren has been better than most of his teammates.

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forcey  
Years ago

Well "anonymous", I guess we better race to get his signature seeing he's been better than most of his team mates.

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Jack Toft  
Years ago

Sometimes, great players need other great players around them to be at their best. If his stats have gone down without Crossy, it could be something as simple as him just putting more pressure on himself that upsets his natural game.

How have everyone else's stats gone? If Warren's stats are down by say 10%, is the rest of the team the same?

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Anonymous  
Years ago

Adelaide fans always find something to complain about.

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Camel 31  
Years ago

His minutes wouldda gone up.
A young guy leading our club , for all the effort it demands with Weigh injured, bartlett just arrived,
I expected it to happen , like Tyndale.

Bruce was 15 n 5 and Holmes has improved every aspect of his game - they mentioned on TV.

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forcey  
Years ago

All- I'm just trying to write something a little more constructive than "Adelaide are crap" or "Clarke is rubbish".

Warren has had his moments but I don't think he's a great fit for our league. We need a point man and you can't play a 5"10 at SG unless he's dominant on both ends.

"Thomo"- yes, he's a better scorer than Shannon but they are pretty similar elsewhere, Shannon was a better passer. I'm not arguing we should have kept Shannon (far from it), just that Warren's output has only been slightly above Shannon's.

Kobe24- it's just interesting how much Crosswell meant to the team and the burden it's put on Warren. I'll run some other numbers on how it's affected the rest of the guys and run on my blog tomorrow.

Isaac- it may seem rash but I think the team should make a change. Might be harsh but jobs are on the line, fans are getting impatient and if he's unlikely to return I'd love to see us try someone else. Rob Rose was a mid-season pickup and look what he did for the Magic. There's no way the 36ers can put out Crosswell and Warren as our starting guards in 2012-2013.

Jack Toft- fair point and a lot of his numbers are down because he's forced to throw up some bad shots but I would have loved to seen his assists rise by 2-3 and his scoring dip slightly. Both have gone down. Like I said will look at more numbers and run on my blog tomorrow.

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Anonymous  
Years ago

I too have suggested the 36ers relese Warren.

Had a very good start to the season but now that teams have had a look at him and scouted him better he's dropped off a fair bit.

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paul  
Years ago

Warren is a very good player who will only get better. Of course some of his stats have dropped off since Crosswell was injured - other teams can focus more on him.

What's impressed me is his turnovers have dropped and assists have held steady since Crossy got injured - his assist:turnover ratio is 2:1 whereas it was 1:1 with Crossy.

He is in a shooting rut but this guy is one of the best Div 1 college scorers ever to come to the NBL - I would persist with him. Simpson has also dropped off in recent games.

As I said in another thread, Adelaide cant expect imports to carry the load, imports at other teams dont do it because the league is simply too deep and too good defensively for that these days.

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paul  
Years ago

Out of interest, there are five imports in the NBL's top ten scorers, two are from Adelaide. There are two imports in the top 10 rebounders and one is Simpson. There are four imports in the top 10 assists, one is Warren. There are two imports in the top 10 blocks, one is Simpson.

Adelaide has major issues with their defence and finishing close games. They also have two very good young imports who were genuine stars at Div 1 colleges.

Rather than toss them out because the team is struggling, I would 1) re-sign them 2) work hard on their and the other players’ weaknesses 3) recruit two local players to replace Ballinger and Herbert or Ng who can fill areas of weakness.

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Isaac  
Years ago

forcey, the club hasn't paid up to replace Ballinger, right? They aren't rushing to throw money away. If they cut Warren, they'd need to pay out his contract (it's after probation, and he's not significantly underperforming). That would be money spent this season (not going to make a finals run from here) that could be better spent on a season where we are in a position to challenge.

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Camel 31  
Years ago

'Several Seasons In Hell' - Rimbaud.

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forcey  
Years ago

As requested , here's the rest of the starters numbers with and without Crosswell, as well as Ng and Creek. Everyone's scoring and FG% has dropped with Crosswell out and Warren running the team.

http://www.36reasons.net/2012/01/crosswell-effect.html

Hopefully I'll say this for the last time, I get his pedigree and that he's not the worst import in the league, but we need a bigger, better defensive, pass-first PG who can lead a team. His skills set doesn't match our needs.


Paul- it's no big deal that's he's one of the top assist men for imports, as there are only 3 import point guards who have made it to rd 17. Also his assists are down as are his turnovers. So essentially he's creating less scoring opportunities while not coughing the ball up as much. Kind of cancel each other out.

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paul  
Years ago

Hang on Forcey, that's not true at all. Warren’s assists have gone from 3.3 to 3.2, which is holding steady. His turnovers have gone from 3.1 to 1.4, which is a huge drop. His assist to turnover therefore has improved from a poor 1.1 to an excellent 2.3.

Looking at your imports for a solution to the problem is missing the point.

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forcey  
Years ago

Not sure how you're running your numbers Paul but here's how I got mine.

Gathered stats from 8 full games he's played with Crosswell (Rd 1, Rd 4-10). Counted games in rounds 2-3 and 11 onwards as games without (Crosswell got injured just after halftime of Rd 11 game so counted this as a "without" game).

In 8 games with he got 31 assists and 25 turnovers (1.24)
In 8 games without he got 21 assists and 16 turnovers (1.31)

How did you get your numbers?

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Anonymous  
Years ago

As I said in another thread, Adelaide cant expect imports to carry the load, imports at other teams dont do it because the league is simply too deep and too good defensively for that these days.


No it isn't, teams just can't afford top line imports anymore e.g. Julius Hodge.



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paul  
Years ago

Name a year when every team had an import as good as Julius Hodge. And I dont remember his teams doing all that well.

Personally, Id take Cedric Jackson or Kevin Lisch over Hodge any day of the week.

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paul  
Years ago

I did post-Croswell numbers rather than without-Crosswell numbers, if that makes sense? So the last five games - 16 assists and 7 turnovers.

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Anonymous  
Years ago

Name a year when every team had an import as good as Julius Hodge. And I dont remember his teams doing all that well.


What? Who's saying that? I'm not talking about his teams not doing well (never played in a playoff game) I'm talking about the standard of imports.

Give me one import in the league who is anywhere near as talented as a Hodge or an Ebi Ere or a Dave Thomas or even a Gary Ervin or a lot of the imports of yesteryear.

How about you attempt to back up your "the league is simply too deep and too good defensively for that these days."

Yeah that's why the vast majority of the Boomers don't play in the NBL.






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paul  
Years ago

I noticed you didnt answer my question. Anyway, that's a different debate.

The reality - as opposed to the opinion - is the Sixers brought in an SEC First Teamer and a WCC First Teamer. While they have performed pretty well, they cant carry the team and they require better local talent around them.

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Anonymous  
Years ago

Chris Warren's season.

First 6 games of the season:

18.2ppg, 3apg, 50.6% fg (40/79), 48.9% 3pts (23/47)

Last 10 games:

13.7ppg, 3.4apg, 34.1% fg (43/126), 28.4% 3pts (21/74)



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Anonymous  
Years ago

That analysis would be best done like this:

First 12 games - 16.4 points, 45% fg, 41% 3p

Last 4 games - 12.3 points, 25% fg, 21% 3p

Not surprisingly, he is not scoring as well since Crosswell went down, but he really needs to break that shooting slump because it is bad.

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Anonymous  
Years ago

Anon 292, First six vs last ten confirms my point his play has dropped right away since the flashy start as teams have been able to get a good look at him and scout him better.

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Anonymous  
Years ago

Warren from games 6-11 averaged 16.2 points, 42% fg, 37% 3p 4.2 assists so Anon 292's analysis doesnt really work.

It is just the last four games.

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Anonymous  
Years ago

sorry anon 291's analysis doesnt really work! Bagging myself there for a minute!

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Anonymous  
Years ago

his form has dropped since dream opened his hotdog shop!

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HoldenV8  
Years ago

I've said it before and I'll say it again...I wouldn't release Warren. In fact if I were in charge of the 36ers he would be one of four players that I'd be looking at keeping beyond this season along with DJ, Simpson and Creek.

Its a pity that Warren isn't a better defender though, or taller than 5'10" because he'd make a great SG IMO.

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Anonymous  
Years ago

It's arguable whether Warren should be cut or not but given how far he's dropped away over the last 10 games I think it's pretty unlikely he'll be re-signed.

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Anonymous  
Years ago

You shouldnt drop a guy because of four bad games when he has been really good up until then, especially a young guy. If Adelaide get rid of him someone will snap him up in an instant.

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