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Anonymous
Last month

#40631

Perth V Adelaide grand final book it

Whoever gets home court will win it.

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LV
Last month
07:44 9 Jan 17

Reply #617288

re: Perth V Adelaide grand final book it

If United ever gets a full team on the court then they should be there. They have just as much firepower, if not more, than Adelaide and better D.

Perth vs United is a sneaky chance.

Only one game in but Cotton could be be the man to take Perth from an OK team to quite a good one.


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Vic Wildcat
Last month
07:52 9 Jan 17

Reply #617289

re: Perth V Adelaide grand final book it

Enough of these sarcastic threads, we are not even top 4 yet.


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AKA
Last month
07:59 9 Jan 17

Reply #617292

re: Perth V Adelaide grand final book it

(Insert my team here) should play in the Grand Final. (Player name) is dynamic and can score with anyone and (another player) has improvement we haven't seen yet. If (third player) can get healthy we have a huge shot of winning it all.


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Anonymous
Last month
08:07 9 Jan 17

Reply #617293

re: Perth V Adelaide grand final book it

Perth V Adelaide grand final then daylight


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Anonymous
Last month
08:07 9 Jan 17

Reply #617294

re: Perth V Adelaide grand final book it

Perth V Adelaide is now the championship match up to beat


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Anonymous
Last month
08:08 9 Jan 17

Reply #617295

re: Perth V Adelaide grand final book it

Perth V Adelaide grand final amateur hour


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KET
Last month
08:18 9 Jan 17

Reply #617297

re: Perth V Adelaide grand final book it

I think the smart ones stopped making predictions a while ago. This season has been absolutely crazy.

If we did drop Breakers/Taipans/Bullets off of the radar, and I am hesitant since 36ers still have 5 of their 8 against those sides - don't want to cause any bad joojoo...

...then who out of the current top 5 doesn't make it? Adelaide is in prime position with only 2 wins required to get to the golden number of 15 - a number I dare say should make top 4.

Then you need to split up Hawks 11-10, United 10-10, Kings 11-11 and Perth 9-9.

Perth have some winning to do, but with only 9 losses if this new import starts bringing the goods and Damo returns it's tough to see them not make it.

United are looking the goods at the moment - the most damaging team of the competition now with the exception of a loss to the Hawks.

The Hawks keep picking up those important victories and have the second best record in the NBL at the moment.

So where does this leave us? The Kings not making it? With last years' MVP plus Newley? I can't fathom that being the case.

Maybe if we ask nicely the NBL will make it top 6? ;)



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LV
Last month
09:02 9 Jan 17

Reply #617301

re: Perth V Adelaide grand final book it

I'd be interested in a summary of every team's run home, if anyone can be bothered putting it together.

Those who are saying "stop making predictions, it's a crazy and even season" well, yes and no. Yes it's been an even season but no, that doesn't mean it will remain that way. Not when Stars like Casper and Cotton are joining mid season. Perth just welcomed back an 11 time defensive player of the year (or maybe it's 5 time DPOY? Who cares....) Back into their team and a fringe NBA guy who potentially complements their group very well and scored an efficient 26 in his first outing.

So, is it even relevant that the league has been so even? Not really- not when the lineups are changing.



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skip
Last month
09:30 9 Jan 17

Reply #617303

re: Perth V Adelaide grand final book it

The run home for Adelaide.

5 out of their 8 games are at home.

V Melbourne
@ Perth
V Brisbane
V Sydney
@ Illawarra
V New Zealand
@ Cairns
V Cairns

The 36ers would have to lose at least 3 games to lose top spot (and that's only if Melbourne or the Hawks go undefeated).


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Johnson
Last month
09:42 9 Jan 17

Reply #617306

re: Perth V Adelaide grand final book it

Kings will miss out on current form.Kevin Lisch is cooked and its showing in the last few games.The decision to bring in Jackson instead of a quality import guard is coming back to bite them big time.


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Anonymous
Last month
10:15 9 Jan 17

Reply #617309

re: Perth V Adelaide grand final book it

Adelaide
Perth
Hawks
United

Is my season ending ladder


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LV
Last month
10:43 9 Jan 17

Reply #617312

re: Perth V Adelaide grand final book it

Like last year, matchups might be a significant factor.

Re: United's Matchups:

Melbourne would feel very comfortable if they drew Adelaide in the semis. They smashed Adelaide last week by 30 odd. The time before that, United looked safe and had about a 20 point lead before the 36ers came storming home and made it close in the dying minutes, before United steadied and won by 11. In the first meeting 36ers won a fairly tight contest, but that was mostly courtesy of United going 8/38 from deep.

Illawarra is a bit ambiguous. United dominated The Hawks early in the season before the Hawks really got going. The Hawks have won the subsequent two contests, but United has been decimated by injuries both times.

Perth- Perth currently 2-0, Casper only present for the 2nd game. Will get a good look with 2 matchups remaining and Cotton now in their line up.

Sydney- Melbourne owns close (ish) victories in 2 of 3 contests. In the other Sydney won 87-71, with a close contest turning into a nice win for the Kings as Lisch lit up in the last quarter but United were missing half their team.

I'd rather United play:

1. Adelaide. United has owned them.
2. Sydney. They have struggled since a hot start to the season.
3. Illawarra. They have an 11 man rotation. Bevo a great coach and will have many schemes up his sleeve.
4. Perth. By far the one that worries me the most, now that they have Cotton.


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Lost In The Sky
Last month
10:45 9 Jan 17

Reply #617313

re: Perth V Adelaide grand final book it

Remaining Games...

Adelaide 36ers 13-7 (5 Home, 3 Away Left)

V Melbourne
@ Perth
V Brisbane
V Sydney
@ Illawarra
V New Zealand
@ Cairns
V Cairns


Illawarra Hawks 11-10 (5 Home, 2 Away Left)

V Brisbane
V New Zealand
@ Cairns
V Adelaide
V Cairns
@ Melbourne
V Brisbane


Melbourne United 10-10 (3 Home, 5 Away Left)

@ Adelaide
V Cairns
@ Brisbane
@ Perth
@ Sydney
V Illawarra
@ New Zealand
V Perth


Sydney Kings 11-11 (2 Home, 4 Away Left)

@ New Zealand
@ Adelaide
@ Brisbane
V New Zealand
V Melbourne
@ Perth


Perth Wildcats 9-9 (5 Home, 5 Away Left)

@ Brisbane
V Adelaide
@ Cairns
V Cairns
@ New Zealand
V Melbourne
V Brisbane
@ Cairns
V Sydney
@ Melbourne


I have the top 4 as...

Adelaide 18-10
Perth 16-12
Illawarra 15-13
Melbourne 15-13
----------------
Sydney 14-14


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LV
Last month
10:47 9 Jan 17

Reply #617314

re: Perth V Adelaide grand final book it

Thanks Lost in the Sky.

Another reason I'd rather Utd play the 36ers: Western Bulldogs recent success notwithstanding, I'll back experience over youth when you get to the business end of the season.


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Anonymous
Last month
11:31 9 Jan 17

Reply #617324

re: Perth V Adelaide grand final book it


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Tom
Last month
12:35 9 Jan 17

Reply #617339

re: Perth V Adelaide grand final book it

Agree Lost in the Sky. Have Perth and 36ers at 17/11, Illawara (all those home games) and Melbourne (provided Goulding is fit) taking 3rd and 4th.
I think 15 wins is the cut off.
One game result can change everything though. And I can see upsets by Cairns and Breakers shaping the final 4.


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LV
Last month
12:57 9 Jan 17

Reply #617343

re: Perth V Adelaide grand final book it

Adelaide at 13-7 and Illawarra at 11-10 with 5 home games left- neither are guaranteed - just look at last season, Adelaide at one stage last season looked a *certainty* before Randle got injured.

But they'd both need to do something badly wrong to miss out- In Illawarra's case, drop a couple of their 5 home games whilst also failing to win either of their remaining away games. In Adelaide's case, go on a big losing streak.

Melbourne has been great since Casper arrived. 7-3 record, with Goulding sitting the entire second half of the loss on the weekend. CG43's ankle is only a sprain this time, so hopefully is fit this Thursday. Perth with Cotton and Martin should win 6 of their last 10 and get in.

So:
Adelaide, Illawarra, Perth and Melbourne in some order appears the likely top 4.

Back luck Sydney. What would that mean for Gaze I wonder? Big disappointment...


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Anonymous
Last month
13:18 9 Jan 17

Reply #617347

re: Perth V Adelaide grand final book it

Can anyone see Hawks finishing last at all? (obviously mathematically still a chance, nothings a certainty)

I just have a bunch of futures bets going and looking to hedge out of one with he hawks, but it all goes to shit if they finish last lol


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Bear
Last month
13:38 9 Jan 17

Reply #617351

re: Perth V Adelaide grand final book it

Any team is only one serious injury to a star player away from disaster, this season more than any season I can recall. Still too early to predict anything IMHO.


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Perth Wilburs
Last month
16:46 9 Jan 17

Reply #617383

re: Perth V Adelaide grand final book it

Wildcats has alot of catch up to do. They are awful away from home, they are shocking in Queensland. Casper only played one good game so far, so questions are still out on him. Prather hit the skids last game and if it continues that'll be a major worry. Every other team will know more about Casper as the season rolls on.

Hire, Wagstaff, Redhage, Wroe, Kenny have being playing some awful basketball recently.

Wildcats will get 4th at best, but probably will end up 5th or 6th.

Adelaide
Illawara
Melbourne
Sydney/Perth/Brisbane (Too close to call).

What happened to Goulding? If he is out for a long period then it's a huge blow to them, but if he is fit then Melbourne will make the finals for sure.


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Train
Last month
16:57 9 Jan 17

Reply #617385

re: Perth V Adelaide grand final book it

I think you mean Cotton, not Casper ;)


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Anonymous
Last month
17:14 9 Jan 17

Reply #617387

re: Perth V Adelaide grand final book it

I think Wildcats to win it all at $9 with Bet365 seems pretty decent value, can even look to cash out when the price goes down.

I think the team will be pretty scary in a few games time with Martin/Cotton now into the team. They probably have the best starting 5 IMO.

Biggest issues will be health and the bench. Key bench guys like Wagstaff/Brandt/Kenny/Hire have been disappointing recently. But with all the issues (injuries, JJ not being the right fit, etc) they required too much from them and they didn't deliver what was needed in the larger roles. Now they will start to slide into lesser more of a bench role, the Cats are less reliant on them playing bigger minutes and bigger roles and hopefully they become more effective again.


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Anonymous
Last month
17:30 9 Jan 17

Reply #617393

re: Perth V Adelaide grand final book it

Perth's bench will allways be their one weakness otherwise you have a really talented and balanced starting 5.


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Anonymous
Last month
17:32 9 Jan 17

Reply #617394

re: Perth V Adelaide grand final book it

BTW, Brandt is starting to play up to his potential by throwing around his huge frame in the post. The last two games he has been exceptional.


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Isaac
Last month
17:33 9 Jan 17

Reply #617395

re: Perth V Adelaide grand final book it

Will Wagstaff ever regain his past form?


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Anonymous
Last month
17:41 9 Jan 17

Reply #617399

re: Perth V Adelaide grand final book it

Age and years of flopping have taken their toll. He can once in a while go off, but he has lost his mobility. That was his strength. Running the lanes and quick feet on defence.


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Dazz
Last month
17:42 9 Jan 17

Reply #617400

re: Perth V Adelaide grand final book it

With Cotton on, and provided key players stay relatively healthy, I am confident Perth can extend the streak. At this point, I'll be happy with that.


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Anonymous
Last month
17:50 9 Jan 17

Reply #617403

re: Perth V Adelaide grand final book it

"Running the lanes and quick feet on defence."

Running the lanes has never been Wagstaff's game. He has been a pick and pop shooter, and a handy low post player - not a banger but has some decent up and under moves.


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Anonymous
Last month
18:53 9 Jan 17

Reply #617419

re: Perth V Adelaide grand final book it

Actually it was. His best years under bevo he was really good finisher in the open court by catching an outlet pass.


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Freethrows
Last month
11:43 10 Jan 17

Reply #617615

re: Perth V Adelaide grand final book it

My end of season ladder prediction at the moment is:

Adelaide 18/10
Perth 16/12
Illawarra 15/13
Sydney 14/14
--------
Melbourne 14/14
Brisbane 12/16
Cairns 12/16
New Zealand 11/17

Separation of Sydney/Melbourne and Brisbane/Cairns is by season splits: Sydney are currently 1:2 against Melbourne, but have a 6pt differential in their favour, so they only need to win their home game against Melbourne. Brisbane is 2:1 against Cairns, so far, with a 21 point differential. I'm pretty certain that's how the top four teams are separated for the purpose of the finals draw. I'm not certain if the final ladder positions in the lower half depend on percentage or season splits. In either case, Brisbane are likely to finish higher, I think.

By my calculations, we are 71.43% of the way through the season, so positions are becoming clearer. Having said that, there's still a long way to go!


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Zodiac
Last month
12:20 10 Jan 17

Reply #617621

re: Perth V Adelaide grand final book it

I'm not certain if the final ladder positions in the lower half depend on percentage or season splits.


I'm pretty sure percentage is only used in-season and the final ladder placings are done by season-splits.


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Freethrows
Last month
18:45 10 Jan 17

Reply #617718

re: Perth V Adelaide grand final book it

Thanks, Zodiac. Can anyone confirm it (like I say, I don't think it'll make a difference, as Cairns can't seem to score at all, anway.)


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Dazz
Last month
18:53 10 Jan 17

Reply #617724

re: Perth V Adelaide grand final book it

Confirm?
Percentage is meaningless in the NBL.
Teams are split based on h2h record, then if 2:2 it goes to points split, then if somehow that is tied, it goes to %


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Zodiac
Last month
19:09 10 Jan 17

Reply #617726

re: Perth V Adelaide grand final book it

Actually after points tied I think it goes to FG's made.


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Dazz
Last month
20:14 10 Jan 17

Reply #617732

re: Perth V Adelaide grand final book it

Yeah, I can't recall the last time that happened.
It gets interesting where there is a 3-way tie, which is entirely likely.

Back on topic, an Adelaide v Perth finals series (be it SF or GF) would be interesting. Kinda like the unstoppable force meets the immovable object.


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