AshT
Two years ago

NBL/WNBL Round 5 Betting

Adelaide 36ers 2.05 & +1.5 @ 1.95

Two impressive teams but I'm extra impressed with 36ers approach into the season. I think the home team could be fully tested.

Melbourne United -5.5 @ 1.90

Just one of six at home (incl @OKC), so a timely opportunity to regain energy & focus facing a tested opponent.

Canberra Capitals +9.5 @ 1.90

They continiue to show competiveness and should appreciate 6-days from fading late to Townsville, at the back of cramped block of games. I assessed this as though Ebzery is a good chance, although have to wonder about 6-days from a grade-2 strain. Flames with a stronger reputation for winning close games than crushing opponents.

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Brunson  
Two years ago

If we were using stakes I would say:

Melbourne -5.5 @ 4 stakes
Adelaide win @ 3 stakes (Sportsbet has them at $2.15)

Melbourne will be pumped for a big game after some losses.

NZ usually does well against Adelaide at home so I wouldn't be surprised if NZ wins and is why they are Favourites.

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AshT  
Two years ago

Good luck, Brunson (of coarse I'd say that!).

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Hoops  
Two years ago

I am liking the Flames to blow out the Capitals tonight? The Capitals just look lost on the court at times and they got lucky last weekend vs Adelaide to get within 3 points but that game was over and Adelaide allowed them back in. Sydney playing well and I feel as though if Ebzery plays, this game could get ugly quickly. The Capitals are also playing their 4th game in 10 days which is pretty nuts and travel as well. Started off at home, went to Adelaide, went back home for Townsville and now up to Sydney for this game? Will back the Flames off a loss tonight. Sorry AshT

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Luuuc  
Two years ago

Caps get Jarry back. Ebzery unknown. Canberra to Sydney isn't much of a road trip.
Flames backcourt is a worry if Ebzery isn't good to go.
Too many variables for me, but if I had to bet I'd pick the Caps to cover that.

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Anonymous  
Two years ago

The bookies let you on for peanuts in the NBL markets as there is no liquidity. I can imagine for WNBL you'd be lucky to be betting peanut shells.

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AshT  
Two years ago

"Sorry AshT"
Never an issue, Hoops. I'm fully supportive of any punter having their own angle. I see it's in to 6.5 at Tattsbet, so here's hoping the result lands 7,8 or 9, if you're on.

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AshT  
Two years ago

"The bookies let you on for peanuts"

Any particular books in mind from your experience, or generally across the board?

I've found they vary and many are not noticably tighter on WNBL than NBL. Then some are more likely to take bigger bets closer to the jump. I almost never attempt to get-on using just one bookie, so there are ways around it.

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Anonymous  
Two years ago

Sure you can bet hundreds, but thousands forget about it.

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AshT  
Two years ago

Yeah, thousands seems unlikely, unless it's someone on the Christmas card list but touching 4figs is doable. I used fourteen different books to be on my three bets today.

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Anonymous  
Two years ago

Yeah that makes sense. Got to spread it around.

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Mort  
Two years ago

Why have the Lynx come into favourites now after opening at 2.30 H2H?

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Hoops  
Two years ago

Im guessing that Williams has been cleared to play hence the line movement and Lynx now favored

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Mort  
Two years ago

Got any angles on that game hoops?

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Hoops  
Two years ago

Mort I just like Fire in this spot. Other teams have gone to Perth and been much higher favs and now we get Fire at evens. Will take them H2H tonight. Too much Batkovic and George for me.

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AshT  
Two years ago

Tonight, Illawarra Hawks 2.55 & EU6.5 @ 2.60

Get a chance to respond playing an opponet in their same grade. The Either Under bet is just so that when either of these two attempt to run four minutes of clock to protect a 5+ point lead that something good can come out of it. I'm sure the tactic works every time on the whiteboard!

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Pickem  
Two years ago

Hawks +3.5 for me

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Hoops  
Two years ago

Wildcats -10.5 for me vs the Kings.. 100-78 kind of game i reckon

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AshT  
Two years ago

By far the easiest 6/4 ride I've ever had but strayed from norm with the Either Under. That'll learn me!

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AshT  
Two years ago

Sydney Uni Flames 1.62

Hestitated on this one, mindful of dangerous Caps three point shooters (which is like five of their top eight plys) and they gets a sniff at home. However, the pro Flames did make them look grades below Thursday. Caps carry a few with limited output for one reason or another.

Bendigo Spirit 4.40 & +9.5 @ 1.90

Eight days to gear up off ambushed at home by Lightning. Boomers injury hit (whether O'Hea has mins today & rested Mon w/no-rest DH next week??) and not convinced they are going so smoothly (even lost to Townsville!). Now in to 3.27 & +6.5 but I would still jump all over that deal.

Melbourne United 1.71

I've loads of respect for 36ers but their recent road schedule is the main issue. I make United no worse than a 1.50 chance.

Illawarra Hawks +1.5 @ 1.92

Talent edge and they look set to carry forward winning energy to exact revenge on a travel weary Kings.

What are peoples thought on Cairnes - NZ, please?

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snooch  
Two years ago

The line is certainly set too tight for my liking re. Cairns/NZ.

On form you'd say NZ cover it easily but Cairns loves its home court and will be smarting after the United loss. Cairns has won the last few over the Breakers too. I'm not touching it.

Agree re. the Hawks. Wouldn't say they've got their mojo back exactly, but they should be up and about.

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AshT  
Two years ago

There's the strong recent record Cairns have over NZ but really, they are two teams who've gone in different directions to what they were last year. They are off the blockbuster win over 36ers and up-focus for 2-0 conquest in Oz before that, which worries me going into this. I can't help to think they are overs but after escaping on the Syd Flames bet, I agree, I think it best not to touch this one. Forecast humid conditions.

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AshT  
Two years ago

Adelaide Lightning 2.87

Might normally expect Fire to simply get the win but this time a realistic question of whether they respond or season-focus & a qaulity Lightning outfit get them. Some pessimism following Perth loss hasn't convinced me of the former. I still anticipate a Fire win but take the bet on value, rating Lightning a 2.44 chance.

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Snooch  
Two years ago

Agree with your assessment AshT. Was going to sit off but felt there was some value getting +3 @ $2.11

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AshT  
Two years ago

Thought we we're a bit unlucky on the Lightning play. Twenty of those shots really should have dropped.

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Anonymous  
Two years ago

LOL @ Illawarra being even money and getting points on the line. Bookies have no idea

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AshT  
Two years ago

Dandenong Rangers 2.26 & +3 @ 1.91

Boomers finally home after dropping last three should ensure a good contest but no O'Hea, leaving Rangers with distinctly the deeper stronger squad. Rangers with a couple extra days rest & prep which hopefully is used to advantage. The market is not overly keen to agree and 2.35 is now available.

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Luuuc  
Two years ago

Definitely no O'Hea?

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AshT  
Two years ago

http://www.theage.com.au/sport/basketball/melbourne-boomers-must-regain-defensive-edge-for-cup-eve-showdown-20171105-gzf3wh.html
"Boomers captain Jenna O'Hea won't be playing ..."

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Luuuc  
Two years ago

Thanks AshT.
Likely a tough night ahead for Melbourne, but they're not without a shot as Dandenong are one of the more up & down teams around.

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Anonymous  
Two years ago

Boomers for me... Time to get back on track. Expect this game to be ugly as well, something like 60-54 so taking the under 146.5 also.

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Luuuc  
Two years ago

Melbourne's last 3 totals have been 66, 57 & 56, and their last 3 opponents have scored 71, 64 & 65 (i.e. average of 126.3) so under seems a great bet at 146.5

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Luuuc  
Two years ago

I know it's only half time, but cha-ching

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Anonymous  
Two years ago

Nice!!!! Boomers came through in the end with a big 4th quarter. They needed that win.

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AshT  
Two years ago

Well done^ but you got that score prediction^ wrong. Was 60-57.

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