hoopie
Earlier this year

Longer term impacts of the virus?

Given that everyone will be taking a financial hit, and the possibility that the virus could hang around for a long time even after a vaccine is made available, I can see a few likely effects:

- less money coming from sponsorship and media deals
- dependence on government hand-outs in order to survive, where we will need to fight for every dollar against the dominant influence of the AFL and NRL
- a huge dependence on Larry Kestelman to keep us afloat
- smaller competitions with fewer teams, because some clubs or teams have folded or had to be propped up by the NBL
- greatly reduced player salaries, because there isn't the money available to pay them what they were on before, which could result in court challenges
- less travel because of less money, so conferences may be introduced as a short-term measure
- leaner and meaner administrations
- continued restrictions on the number of spectators, because nobody can be sure who has been vaccinated or who might be a carrier
- better imports, because they see Australia as a safer place to live and work than the US or Europe

Discuss

Topic #47103 | Report this topic


Anonymous  
Earlier this year

"a huge dependence on Larry Kestelman to keep us afloat" Good luck with that.

Reply #801930 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Earlier this year

Larry's other business interests are going to take a hit as well - he is going to have to be savage.

People's discretionary spending will be much much less.

Reply #801933 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Earlier this year

Conferences in a smaller comp? 3 team conferences, with top 3 advancing?

Reply #801935 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Earlier this year

What's the point in doing that?

Reply #801938 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Earlier this year

NBL has the advantage of having virtually only short-term contracts for players. Should help adjusting the budgets (although that's bad news for the players, of course).
And hopefully the situation is back closer to normal by the time next season starts.

Reply #801940 | Report this post


Anon  
Earlier this year

Another strong reason for team in Tassy. Because completely surrounded by water much safer so will.prove to be a very attractive place for imports. Tasmania by having basketball ad first team ina national.competition will generate incredible one eyed interest in the sport. By getting ahead of AFL. Tassy can.promote as safe haven for spectators and players. Would think 2 teams out of NZ based on same theory 2 islands be worth explororing also. Need to be thinking both inside and out of the box. Thoughts

Reply #801941 | Report this post


Perthworld  
Earlier this year

Australia is also an island completely surrounded by water so it's all good. NBL - the safe haven league.

Reply #801946 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Earlier this year

#941 you have completely no idea about Tasmania and how it follows sport. North v South and never shall the 2 meet

Reply #801949 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Earlier this year

#949
You have no idea. Tasmania are right behind this, north, south and all.

Reply #801950 | Report this post


Brunson  
Earlier this year

"Larry's other business interests are going to take a hit as well - he is going to have to be savage."

You think Chemist Warehouse would be struggling right now?

Reply #801951 | Report this post


sman  
Earlier this year

there won't be any imports, 1 clubs won't be able to afford to pay them 2 they won't be allowed into the country

Reply #801952 | Report this post


twenty four  
Earlier this year

Another strong reason for team in Tassy. Because completely surrounded by water much safer so will.prove to be a very attractive place for imports.



Hmm, catching a potentially deadly virus or having to live in Tasmania.

I think I'd take my chances with the virus.

Reply #801953 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Earlier this year

For for the next 12 months there will be no international travel? How about when things are slowing down they just spend 14 days in quarentine.

Reply #801955 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Earlier this year

Nbl won't be in its current form!

Reply #801960 | Report this post


ME  
Earlier this year

I'm not sure if things will be as bad as people are thinking. May only take a few months to get on top of this virus. As for what kind of imports we will get, yes our money will take a hit but so will everyone elses. The same players still gotta eat somewhere. And I think international travel restrictions should have well and truly eased up by then.

Some things may change off court with sponsorships but I think comparatively, because every league will have this issue, the talent will be about the same.

Reply #801961 | Report this post


koberulz  
Earlier this year

International travel restrictions are likely the last thing to go. The US looks like they're not going to be on top of this for a couple of years.

Reply #801962 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Earlier this year

Glen 20 and Kleenex should have plenty of Sponsorship money.

Reply #801965 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Earlier this year

The English language is the big loser in this thread.

Reply #801969 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Earlier this year

Thanks professor of linguistics!!!

Reply #801970 | Report this post


PeterJohn  
Earlier this year

"International travel restrictions are likely the last thing to go."

This is a reasonable take.

Consider best case scenario. i.e., in 6 months, Australia's measures have broadly worked and the infection numbers have been kept below 1,000,000 say. So we'd have 1,000,000 people with, hopefully, some immunity to infection with COVID-19. What about the other 25,000,000? What restrictions would need to be in place until Australia could achieve herd immunity? Bans on international travel would have to be one of them, wouldn't it?

So how long until we can reach herd immunity? If we had a vaccine and started manufacturing, distributing and administering it today, it'd probably take more than 3 months. That's thinking back to when the bird flu scare happened and how long it took, then, for the government to be able to obtain enough Tamiflu vaccine just for the 10% of the Australian population then most at risk. And then we already had flu vaccine stockpiles before that virus emerged. With COVID-19 we'll be starting from zero and vying with every other other country for vaccine supplies.

Anyway, we seem to be 12 months away from having a vaccine, so the question really is - how long (if at all) to get to herd immunity without a vaccine and without decimating the population along the way?

Reply #801979 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Earlier this year

Imagine on Wednesday, April Fools, all the governments come out and say it was biggest prank ever.

Reply #801980 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Earlier this year

haha imagine

Reply #801981 | Report this post


AngusH  
Earlier this year

Longer term impacts of this are pretty impossible to guess, we are in uncharted territory. I listened to a talk from an agri markets researcher last week and he basically said to think of this like we are in the early stages of a war. I wouldn't be shocked if there is no international travel for 12 months or more, especially if there are still pockets of infection out there globally, which I'm sure there will be. Just like the 1918 flu, it would be the 2nd wave that would be the most deadly, because it would be from local transmission where as right now it is still largely international travelers who have the virus (may have changed over the weekend, haven't looked at the stats in a few days, that was the case Friday at least).

I think the rich benefactor model of sports like the NBL is at risk, definitely. The timing is good compared to say the NRL or AFL in that we got almost through an entire season, but I don't think things will be back to normal come October - I still don't think we'll have indoor events with more than a certain number of people by then baring some sort of medical near-miracle.

Reply #801982 | Report this post


Pop  
Earlier this year

You mean basketball might return to being a sport rather than an 'event' or 'experience'?

Just looking for a ray of brightness amongst the gloom.

Reply #801984 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Earlier this year

I wonder how they did it when the NBL 1st began. They didn't play in front of huge crowds, most had day jobs and just played for the love of it or a carton of beer and a pack of Winnie blues. Lets just go back to then.

Reply #801985 | Report this post


D2.0  
Earlier this year

I still think the NBL has less to worry about than many other organisations.

If we have not locked this virus down and out within 6 months, then we will be in deep shit and sport will be the last thing we worry about.

So assuming we have, and the games can start up almost as usual.
> Highly paid players will take pay cuts, no choice.
> Teams are already dependent on wealthy owners with deep pockets, so that won't change.
> Most teams play in public venues (even if under private management) and they will have to accept lower rents.
> Unless there is in place a 100%, no-exception, USA travel ban, imports will be plentiful and cheap.
> Disposable income for tickets will be severely limited, that is probably the biggest problem, and clubs will have to cut some prices.

Reply #802015 | Report this post


D2.0  
Earlier this year

International travel restrictions are likely the last thing to go.

If the airlines had behaved responsibly in the first place (along with dickhead tourists) and/or governments had actually implemented REAL travel restrictions when needed, then we wouldn't be in this fucking mess.

Even now, international travel has only stopped because it is nolonger profitable.
As soon as they can make a quid again, airlines will be back at it.
Tourist destinations will be at rock bottom prices, and dickheads will be flocking.

Reply #802017 | Report this post


AngusH  
Earlier this year

As I said above, I wouldn't be surprised if there is still next to no international travel at all in 12 months' time, especially for guys just wanting to come play basketball in Australia. International travel has stopped because many countries are not accepting anyone except nationals, and that will last as long as it takes to get the virus under control, which could be a long time.

Wealthy owners with deep pockets might also not exist in the same number. Pockets are not going to be so deep when all is said and done for a lot of people. The wealthy own sports teams for a number of reasons, but few of them are for the profit.

Impact will be huge short term. Long term (NBL-wise) it's impossible to say, but I think we will recover, but we may have just finished watching peak-NBL for a number of years.

Reply #802020 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Earlier this year

Air lines follow federal government policy. It's all on Morrison door step, don’t get me started on the ruby princess, the infections from that boat and the pass ons is disgusting. Now Morrison answers are chuck money at every one and place people in first class accommodation.

The country is going to be in debt for decades, liberals money managers my arse.

Reply #802021 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Earlier this year

May be that in the future international travellers will have to be quarentined as soon as plane lands. Not sure of logistics but put some home detention bracelets on, can track you within metres. If you leave your hotel room then on 1st plane back.

Reply #802025 | Report this post


koberulz  
Earlier this year

Consider best case scenario. i.e., in 6 months, Australia's measures have broadly worked and the infection numbers have been kept below 1,000,000 say.
Either our measures work, or we hit 1,000,000 infections. If we hit 1,000,000, we've failed and everything is fucked and there won't be AFL in 2021, never mind NBL.

Anyway, we seem to be 12 months away from having a vaccine, so the question really is - how long (if at all) to get to herd immunity without a vaccine and without decimating the population along the way?
It can't be done. What can be done is getting the number of cases low enough, and testing rates high enough, that as soon as someone gets it we know immmediately, quarantine them, and test everyone they've had contact with.

Ideally, cases hit zero. Once that happens the only concern is importing it and otherwise everyone is free to go about their day, which is why border closures will be the last thing to go.

Reply #802028 | Report this post


Hoopie  
Earlier this year

Illawarra now on life support - who's next?

Reply #802138 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Earlier this year

If the league stays afloat the hawks will be ok, the virus helped getting rid existing owner.

Reply #802139 | Report this post




 

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