Correction- United is 8 games clear of all except Perth

In this thread I'm summarising the effects of all Covid effects

Of course United had an advantageous home and away fixture. As did SEM.

But the point of my post was:

1. Overall Covid impacts will now mean actually, United will become the most disadvantaged team (assuming the GF isn't allowed in front of crowds in Melbourne. Which seems likely).

2. SEM have a massively greater advantage from their H&A fixture than United. Given it arguably got them into the playoffs whereas United would've been top 2 regardless (and are now not even truly top 2 as far as home court, again assuming no playoffs in Melb)

Side note: United was 11-2 in games outside Victoria. The argument I'm making in this thread only relies on the obvious idea that United would've finished top 2 with a regular home and away fixture. But given they were 11-2 outside Victoria (better than their 17-6 record in Vic) and given they finished 3 games clear of Perth, this strongly suggests they'd have top spot even if 20-21 had the same H&A fixture as other years

Of course if United plays SEM in the semis- neutralising the crowd issue - and then is allowed full capacity GF crowds in Melbourne then these arguments are irrelevant. United won't really be disadvantaged in playoffs (except to the extent Melbourne has a bigger fan base than SEM and would miss that slight advantage in the semi finals)

But the side note about United's record and 3 game minor premiership buffer suggesting they would be #1 in any season will remain the case regardless of what happens from here.

TL;DR

This thread? It's a no from me.

LV mate I barely follow the nbl and I'm not trying to be a dick but yes on paper do United have the best roster (especially pre white injury) yeah probably and thus they’d still be title favourites, however I think considering United had like a month of extra home games or whatever it was I think it’s a bit silly to go on about their playoffs disadvantage considering that’ll be like 3 weeks. They got an advantage in the regular season so now they can take a hit in the playoffs. Does it suck for them they likely won’t have home playoff games? Absolutely, however considering the luxury they got in the regular season I think it evens out tbh.

Obviously the playoffs is higher intensity and what not but this is sounding like a vic afl team complaining about going on the road when they essentially get a bunch of extra home games too.

You can bring up the records of home and away and I’m not discounting that but they got to be home, in their own beds with their families etc more than non vic teams. And considering Perth weren’t that far behind them, I think it’s reasonable to say that if the tables were turned they’d be first.

Yes I understand the reason behind the cup and whatnot so it’s not sour grapes but considering all those games they got at home they did benefit off that.

So yes it sucks for them to not get any playoff games but considering what occurred in the regular season I think you just need to settle down a bit mate.

If anyone gets to complain it’s the breakers

Summary: Yes they will be disadvantaged in the playoffs and that sucks for them but they got an advantage in the regular season so it balances out

TL;DR

The NBL headquarters doing a little bit of A/B testing of their usual suck up media strategy for Melb United disadvantage, here on Hoops via our mate LV?

[Which is what I've been saying all along. Why it took you four days and numerous posts across several threads is beyond me.]

It's just stating the obvious- United had more home games than normal. Of course that's helpful.

However it hasn't resulted in any advantage in the final analysis for United, given results suggest United would've likely finished on top anyway. Only for SEM.

SEM played 14 games outside Victoria, United played 13.

SEM went 9 straight weeks without travel - all of February and March. They played 5 away games in the space of almost 4 months, with 3 of those games together in a 6 day road trip.

And then SEM have scraped into playoffs by one game and percentage or only percentage, depending on tomorrow's result.

Why the constant whining about United's advantage when SEM had similar? Either whine about both, or don't whine at all.

The advantages were for good reasons- the NBL Cup presumably made good sense from a financial perspective for the NBL, with Vic Gov support.

[Why the constant whining about United's advantage when SEM had similar? ]

To be clearer:

They had a similar fixture advantage, but the results of that advantage mean SEM has been helped infinitely more than United. The fixture advantage arguably got SEM into the playoffs, but achieved nothing for United. Other than allowing them to "sleep in their own beds" and live at their usual homes with their families for a few more nights than other teams.

[You don't think playing 12 out of 13 games at home which resulted in a ten game winning streak is an advantage caused by the momentum?]

Of course this was an advantage.

But United finished 3 games clear of Perth.

United also had a 11-2 record in games outside Victoria.

This all suggests they would've got top spot regardless of the extra home games.

[That ten game win streak put them in first and kept them there for the rest of the season.]

This is simply nonsense. We've discussed this before- why do you persist making points that you know are incorrect?

United remained on top by defeating Perth TWICE IN PERTH. And defeating Illawarra IN ILLAWARRA. United has defeated their playoffs rivals in front of their rivals home crowds.

If Perth were good enough to beat United at RAC Arena, and if Perth were good enough to defeat Illawarra in Illawarra, then Perth would have top spot.

Why are you persisting making the easily disproven argument that United REMAINED on top due to home games earlier in the season?

It is nonsense, and I've explained very clearly why it's nonsense.

You haven't answered the points I've spelt out very clearly, in this or the other thread.

Haha irrelevant comments and ad hominems from anonymous posters

Inability or refusal to actually respond to the substantive points made

Hoops, never change!

[ I posed the same question to him twice last week and he eventually responded with "I'm here to talk basketball, not conspiracy theories." ]

Except I had already responded in various other threads where you keep raising your nonsense. And you knew that.

[To sweep the ridiculous travel schedule perth had under the rug as no difference is negligent on your part.]

What "ridiculous travel"?

Perth did the same amount of travel as they would in a normal season. Started with 2 games at home, then spent a month in Victoria without flying anywhere, then returned to a normal schedule for the remainder of the season. Slightly condensed with a 36 game schedule instead of 28, being the only difference.

14 games in Perth. Loads of games in Victoria like everyone else without travelling, mostly neutral games. And then the usual amount of genuine away games.

[Flying and injury management hate each other yet this doesn't factor into uniteds advantages in your mind. Wow]

This is a fairly ironic comment too, when Perth barely had any injuries all season until Cotton went down

While Melbourne and SEM, plus Sydney, NZ, Cairns, Illawarra, Adelaide all suffered numerous and constant injuries. Unlike Perth, those teams rarely had their full lineup on the floor together for any consistent periods.

And of course Brisbane had Vic Law go down

So really, Perth was pretty much the only team who wasn't adversely affected by injuries all season. Until Cotton

Except Majok who they lost 2 months before the season, and replaced with Jervis who knows their system and has won multiple titles under the same coach.

I think LV has some security issues about Perth.

Every team has had crazy travel stretches at times.

United did 8 games in 25 days travelling to Perth and back twice, plus Wollongong, Brisbane, Sydney and Adelaide. Including a week of quarantine in Perth hotels. And they're still on the road.

SEM have played in Cairns, New Zealand and now Brisbane in less than a week, and if they win they'll hop straight on a plane for Perth where they'll probably have to quarantine too.

Trying to link travel and injuries is a little tenuous especially when, as I said, Perth had less injuries than anyone else this season.

[Another LV classic. When he wants to make his team sound hard done by, he talks about players in terms of talent. Now he doesn't want to promote Perth in the same light so it's all about the systems. An absolute walking contradiction.]

Majok was a loss, to be clear. He's better than Jervis at this stage of Jervis's career.

But losing someone 2 months before the season starts, is a different scenario to other teams who have suffered constant injuries throughout the season and often with uncertainty around if and when they would return (eg SEM with Pineau and Creek being good examples).

[I think LV has some security issues about Perth.]

Not at all

United has beaten Perth the last 3 times they've played in Perth.

if anything it's the Perth fans on here who are so salty and sick of watching United walk into RAC and beat their team.

United's biggest threat this season is a semi final series against SEM, who could conceivably shoot the lights out twice in 3 games. With Sykes, Gliddon, Adnam and Broekhoff being flat out good shooters or talented scorers or both, Creek being Creek and Wetzell handy down low.

Haha, I get the impression you're a bit worried about this season though, based on all the whining about the NBL Cup and United's fixture

Just did some analysis

True home games are played in front of your crowd. True away games are played in front of your opponent's crowd. Neutral games have neutral support.

Both United and SEM played 6 neutral games- 5 against each other, plus United played Cairns in Sydney, and SEM played Brisbane in Cairns.

United had 18 true home games and 12 away. SEM 17 and 13.

You typically have a 60-70% chance of winning at home and 30-40% away. For every 3 home games, you'll win one extra game compared to 3 away games (2 wins compared 1 win).

United had 1 extra win from going 18-12 instead of 15-15. SEM had 0.66 extra wins from going 17-13 instead of 15-15.

SEM probably would've made the top 4 anyway- if they win tomorrow. Since they'll be a game plus % clear of Sydney.

[Also United and SEM got to enjoy playing at home, managing injuries without flying and training more while other teams were flying all around.]

This is simply untrue, all teams were based in Melbourne for an entire month. No one was flying anywhere.

[ Forget all this other "analysis" he is doing. It's all just pissing in the wind because he simply doesn't understand and/or won acknowledge the problem people have with the schedule.]

Again, Perth was based in one location for 1 month. They did no more flying around and flight hours than they normally would.

Except to the extent the season was 36 games instead of 28, which every team had to put up with.

Now given these things are rarely reversed, my money is on the NBL having another 36 game season next year. Meaning this is the new norm and Perth better get used to it. There's no special NBL disadvantage Perth have faced this season any more than other team, just the fact their location is in the far west of the country.

And every team would've had as many training sessions as they wanted during the NBL Cup

Where's your evidence SEM and United were training more than the other teams, or that the other teams were restricted in their ability to access training courts?

Obviously they would've needed to find a gym for weights and perhaps their Melbourne set ups weren't as great as their usual ones- but the idea they couldn't train as much as they wanted, is there any basis whatsoever to that?

[Again, Melbourne was based in one location for 3 months.]

Feb 10 - Wollongong

Mar 19 - Sydney

April 4- Cairns

Are Wollongong, Sydney and Cairns all suburbs of Melbourne now are they?

News to me...

[Totally the same]

Yeah, knowing your guy will be out since 2 months prior is totally the same as having no idea week to week

And yeah, Mike Karena is just as useful a replacement for SEM as Tom Jervis for Perth.

[Now that we've established they United only left Melbourne TWICE in the period of mid-Feb to mid-May, it all but ends the argument that they received a massive advantage with the scheduling.]

By March 19, United had started their season in Adelaide, then played in Cairns the following week. Then played in Bendigo, then flown to Brisbane, then back to Bendigo, then Wollongong. Then the NBL Cup in Melbourne followed by a trip to Sydney

So United had flown to Adelaide, Cairns, Brisbane, Wollongong and Sydney all on separate trips.

By the same date- in fact a week later to March 27- Perth had made presicely 2 flights for the entire season. Started their season in Perth, flew to Victoria, then back to Perth for several games there.

I understand what you're saying, but the difference isn't as big as what you think, and the flying around part hasn't been as much worse than normal years as you're making out.

Melbourne are Road Warriors.

We're sitting here having this debate, yet no one's mentioned that Melbourne hasn't actually played at home for over 3 weeks now, and since then they've played in Wollongong, Brisbane, Sydney, Perth and Adelaide.

United's schedule was basically

A lot of travelling in Jan and Feb.

Then a long home stretch with the occasional road game through mid-Feb to early May (March 19 in Sydney ANd April 4 in Cairns).

May 13 onwards- loads of travelling again.

From the perspective of increasing your chances of winning in the playoffs, I would've much rather they had the home stretch towards the end of the season.

But they've been good enough to win on the road anyway, and have been easily the best team in it (when healthy).

[ home games mean you are sleeping in your own bed and surrounded by your family.]

Richmond Tigers, Geelong Cats and Melbourne Storm fans might like to suggest this isn't much of an advantage in having a successful season.

And as I said above, United travelled interstate for 13 games

This is only 2 or 3 less than normal

They played 23 in Vic, 13 outside

Normally would be 20 and 16, or maybe 21 and 15.

So LV seeing as you've done all of this amazing research can you just do a little more for us.

Apart from the last 3 weeks where your state shat the bed by not having a decent contact tracing procedure (all other states 'check in' everywhere), how many times did Utd play multiple away games in a row. So road games without a game IN VICTORIA in between.

I capitalised that because I know you'll say "we played Sydney then SEM and NZ all away" despite 2 of those 3 being in Victoria.

That's true, except I will point out that whilst they've played 6 in a row outside Victoria due to COVID, 4 of those 6 were already scheduled as true away games, including 3 in a row.

The other two being the "home" game vs Cairns in Sydney and yesterday's "home" game in Adelaide vs Adelaide.

I look forward to seeing how LV turns that into the greatest disadvantage in NBL history.

Hence why I asked for the stats pre victoria shitting the bed.

3 weeks is far to long to be away from home, I'd liken it to the 4 weeks everywhere team did. .apart from being less, you muppet.

How many teams got three-game rounds without traveling for at least one of the three games?

L = ... long? lame? laborious? or just LV?

[3 weeks is far to long to be away from home, I'd liken it to the 4 weeks everywhere team did. .apart from being less, you muppet.]

If you can't tell the difference between

- Staying in one location and playing mostly neutral games (ie: What every team did in Fberuary/March)

And

- Travelling around the country playing genuine away games in front of opposition crowds (ie: What United have done in May/June)

Then you really should stop and take a deep breath before you hit "Post" next

Amazing stuff, LV starts an "LV's Greatest Hits" thread throws a little bit of chum in the water sits back and watches the fish jump into the boat for him.

Every year, "the refs cost United the title this year" or now "the NBL is costing United the title by not making us leave Melbourne. Or something."

By my quick calcs Perth played 13 genuine away games this season. Same as SEM.

One more than United who played 12.

United true home/ away/ neutral split was 18/12/6

Perth's 14/13/9.

The difference is travel. United played 13 games outside Victoria. Perth played 22 outside WA. But given 11 of those 22 games were played consecutively Perth wasn't flying.

So the real difference is Perth had to spend a month staying in hotels with their teammates instead of in their own homes.

I'm yet to be convinced this is much of a disadvantage in terms of having a successful season.

And 18/12/6 vs 14/13/9 means United had 4 games at home where Perth had 3 neutral and 1 away

Approx 2.6 wins vs 1.8

(66% home win *4, vs 50% neutral wins DJs 33%)

So just isolating purely home away splits , on that factor United had a 0.8 win fixture advantage over Perth

And finished 3 wins ahead.

With loads more injuries too.

Crowds are the major differentiating factor that helps success.

Travel is overrated. So is "playing on your rims". (Not a dirty joke).

Early in the 20-21 NBA season when crowds weren't allowed anywhere, plenty of teams had better road records than home records.

If we're analysing the non basketball factors (eg other than talent, the game itself) if something other than crowds is the main factor contributing to teams winning games, explain that to me.

Are we sure LV isnt one of the prosecutors from the OJ case?