Last week

Best of 5 or Best of 3?

To continue the discussion from GF Game 3 thread

I won't re-hash the arguments started there

But quick recap

- KR thinks most of the recent series have been boring, one-sided affairs and this is justification to change back.

- A few of us pointed out that series like 2004, 2008 and 2018 were absolutely epic. And 2021 and 2022 were unusual with injuries to Cats in 2021, and United in Game 3 2022 SF meaning we didn't see the best team play the best challenger in full health

- I think the extent to which say, 2008 exceeds what it *would've been* as a Best of 3, outweighs the slight reduction in spectacle by having an extra game with a foregone conclusion like say, Game 3 of 2021

Final thought- is there anything better than NBA playoffs? Of course not. And part of the reason is it's full of epic 7 game series (check out Milwaukee Boston right now, or Memphis Minnesota Round 1 as good examples)

NBA, Euroleague- these are best practice- best of 5 or 7 is best for a sport like basketball. Rivalries, build up, drama, twists and turns.

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Last week

[I think the extent to which say, 2008 exceeds what it *would've been* as a Best of 3]

Actually, given how Game 3 of 2008 went (I was there....LAMPLEY!!!!)

Perhaps thats not the best argument- cos that would've been the best finish to a best of 3 imaginable.

2004 would be a better example with the Game 5 comeback win

Reply #892018 | Report this post

Last week

Ps yes I realise Memphis vs Minnesota was 4-2 but it was absolutely epic

Just like a tight 3-1 series would be greater than a tight 2-1 series. Cos when that game 4 is happening, you think it'll go to 5, and you're remembering all the turns the series has already taken. It's about the "journey not the destination"

Reply #892019 | Report this post

Last week

Best of five is great. Leave it as is imo.

Reply #892023 | Report this post

Last week

Leave it. Given the length of the season I question whether things don't move too fast as it is with the initial 3 game series spread over a week.

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Last week

I think best of 5 is good. Yeah you'll get some sweeps, but is 3-0 really worse than 2-0? 2-0 can be done in a weekend and feel a little anticlimactic for a neutral. At least with a 5 game series you can get some story lines going before the third game about the underdog fighting back etc.

Choosing a format based on the best or worst outcomes of each is like people saying they dont want 48 minute games because "x" game was boring or they want 48 minute games because that "y" game was a thriller and surely you want more than that.

5 game series gives some extra weight to the GF, keeps it in the news longer, gives the higher ranked team at least 2 home games and usually the lower ranked team 2 as well.

I was at four of the five games in 2008 and loved it all. Even the Tigers choke in game 4 was great for the theatre.

I also went to every game in 2009 and while the games were often not great, both teams were able to impose their game style at home and it was fun to watch (ok, game 5 might be a bit hazy...)

Having said that, 97, the only other grand final which I saw every game in person was also epic. In the end, like the 40 vs 48 minute game thing, just pick one and stick with it.

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Last week

I was at four of the five games in 2008 and loved it all. Even the Tigers choke in game 4 was great for the theatre.

I'll never forget league officials prematurely wheeling out the Championship trophy in Game 4 at the Cage and then having to hide it. An all-time classic NBL moment followed up by some Lampley magic at the Kingdome in Game 5. Such drama.

Plus from a more purely competitive perspective the 2004 see-sawing nature of the first five game series going the distance in a Sydney derby are my highlights.

I'm not surprised they both invovled Goorjian.

As a Wildcats fan I feel kind of robbed we've been involved in so many Grand Final series yet none of the epic five gamers due to the league reverting back to three games for a time.

Definitely keep the format as is, a small sample size with COVID thrown in does not indicate future trend.

Reply #892030 | Report this post

Last week

The Tigers were 18 points up in the 3rd quarter of Game 4 2008.

Just an epic series. The 27-3 Kings vs the experience of the Tigers in their 3rd straight GF.

I'll never forget when Lampley hit the game winner at Game 3, and I was in Sydney, a cranky old lady hit a Tigers fan in the row in front of me.

This was in the background of the Fox cameras- a fair few rows up in the stands but still in the background.

I reckon if anyone has the footage, and you look hard enough, you'd be able to see it.

You guys have better memories than me, I struggle to remember exactly which games I was at. But I was at Game 3 of 97, and would've been at all (or most) of the games in Melbourne in 2006-2009 and 2018. Plus Game 3 of 2008 in Sydney and Game 3 of 2007 in Brisbane.

Good times!

Shame the Tigers won 2006 and 2008 in Sydney and I couldn't make either championship game. Saw United win in 2018 though.

Reply #892033 | Report this post

Last week

I like the EuroLeague format of best of 5 series. I know there isn't much of a difference if you lose a series 2-0 or 3-0. But better off having that extra game if a team could make a comeback. If United’s series was extended to best of 5 I would of tipped United to fight back in 5.

NBL should consider your idea. Heard the season will start in October so the league has more time to come up with new ideas till finals. Not really a big fan of the play-in games. Would rather have the top-2 seeds go straight to the semifinals then 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th battle it out in elimination finals.

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Last week

Remember the Lampley game very well... He was definitely my favourite "villain" that season, shame he didn't stick in the NBL longer.

Reply #892051 | Report this post

Last week

I'll never forget when Lampley hit the game winner at Game 3, and I was in Sydney, a cranky old lady hit a Tigers fan in the row in front of me.

This was in the background of the Fox cameras- a fair few rows up in the stands but still in the background.

Wasn't Lampley also huge in Game 5?

More importantly I forgot about that crowd incident. If I recall correctly now wasn't the woman in question a relative of the notorious mole/bitch Kings fan who used to frequent OzHoops? What a feral family.

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Last week

I don't remember Game 5 too well, except it was a low scoring grind and the Tigers came out on top by about 7

Hadn't realized that incident was so big- it wasn't a full punch or anything, just an angry tap really. The victim was one of the group of Tigers fans I was sitting with. Didn't know him well.

Those were just epic times.

2006, I came down with a cold and decided not to travel to Sydney for Game 3. After the Tigers won, heralding in the Westover era and breaking the (9 year!!!) drought, Seamus McPeake threw open a bar tab at the hotel bar, and the players celebrated with the fans into the night. Always regretted missing that.

Seamus' middle name was "cost cutting"- he even held a championship barbeque at Woodlands Park across the road from his house (can't recall if it was 2006 or 2008). He was a very controversial figure, both in the NBL and even amongst Tigers fans. But he did save the club.

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Last week

"9 years!!!" being with exclamation marks because it felt like such a long time

My footy team hasn't won in 56 years, it really wasn't that long!

Reply #892067 | Report this post

Last week

Two series with best of five each means if all series' go to five games then 10 extra games for the grand finalists are played in addition to the 28 regular season games. The nba has 82 plus another maximum of 28 in playoffs (not including play in). Approx 30% of the nbl season being playoffs would be line with the NBA.

Reply #892078 | Report this post

Last week

8/36 = 22.2% of games are playoff games if both series go the distance

10/38 would be 26.3%

28/110 = 25.4% in the NBA

Pretty much the same either way

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Last week

Thanks LV. I was way too lazy to do the ACTUAL maths.

Reply #892091 | Report this post

Last week

I was a fan of the 36 regular season but if we nbl was going that path then you have to have top-6 to keep most teams in the hunt for finals. Have at least minimal 2 to 3 games per round fit into 21 rounds if possible. Teams have played 3 games in 1 round before.

I couldn't stand this season when some teams only played 1 game per round or not even in the round but partly to blame was covid. Rounds in particular are stupid in my opinion, just get rid of them if it’s not going to be even.

Reply #892099 | Report this post

Last week

Not sure that I'm fussed either way for a GF series.

Best of 5 is great if it’s a competitive series - it’s an increase quantity of good stuff but doesn’t go too long.

Best of 3 each game has higher value as there’s very little wriggle room for failure. This makes it easier for upsets to occur as there’s less the weaker team needs to do to cause the upset.

I’d be curious as to what the upset rate is for an AFL Grandfinal (1 game), vs NBL in 3,5 game series vs NBA 7 game series. I suppose league parity would need to be factored in as well.

Reply #892100 | Report this post

Last week

yeah, it'd need to factor in mathematically how far apart the teams were to begin with. More Often in the NBA the series starts with one team a clear favourite.

It's rare for an AFL team to walk into a GF being over about $2.60 (although it can happen, for example GWS in 2019).

Maybe isolating NBA Finals vs AFL GF would be better

In recent years the AFL underdog has probably won more often than the favourite

2014- Hawthorn were about $2.30 and won
2016 - Doggies about $2.30 and won
2017- Richmond about $2.20 or $2.30 and won
2018- I think West Coast were slight outsiders and won, but there wasn't a clear favorite
2020- I can't remember who was favourite- it wasn't too far apart, it was about $1.75 to $2.10 or something. The favouritism wasn't obvious since Geelong were in absolutely ripping form and Richmond were going for 3rd flag in 4 years

The clear favourite won in 2019, and a warm favourite won in 2015 and 2021

Another complicating factor is that injuries often change NBA playoff series during the actual series, since there's 4-7 games. Obviously the odds before game 1 can't factor this in

It does make sense though that upsets would be more common in a one off game compared to a 3, 5 or 7 game series.

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