LV
Last week

NBL final round- Scenarios


- If United beats Cairns on Thursday then United and Perth are playing for top spot on Sunday. If United loses to Cairns they can still finish 1st if Perth lose against Adelaide and then they beat Perth on Sunday.

- If Perth wins vs Adelaide, they'll finish top 2. If Perth wins both games they'll finish on top. If Perth loses both games, they'll finish 3rd unless Sydney has lost to Cairns, in which case Sydney will finish 3rd.

- If Adelaide beats Perth, they'll finish 4th. If Adelaide loses to Perth then Bris gets 4th if Bris beats NZ.

- Sydney cannot finish 1st. They can finish 2nd if they beat Cairns and then either Perth or United loses both of their games.

In summary:

- United or Perth will finish on top. But both could still finish 3rd.

- Sydney will finish 2nd or 3rd.

- Adelaide will finish 4th if they beat Perth and may still finish 4th even if they lose.

- Bris will finish 4th if Adelaide loses and then they beat NZ.

In summary, anything could happen so strap yourselves in.

Topic #44798 | Report this topic


Hogwash  
Last week

Perth to host Sydney.
Melbourne v Brisbane

Reply #733603 | Report this post


LV  
Last week

Yeah that's my tip too

Which means United would be playing a team who's beaten them 3 times in a row, the only team who beat United in the season series.

And Perth would be hosting Sydney- their two games in Perth were a last possession regulation game and an OT game

Hard to write a better script than this.

Reply #733604 | Report this post


Zodiac  
Last week

Also if Perth beat Adelaide and NZ beat Brisbane then Adelaide gets in.

Reply #733606 | Report this post


paul  
Last week

"Perth to host Sydney.
Melbourne v Brisbane"

That could be two incredible series, especially if Brisbane can repeat what's given Melbourne so much trouble this season.

Reply #733611 | Report this post


LV  
Last week

What troubles Melbourne?

Reply #733614 | Report this post


LV  
Last week

I remember one game they were doubling Casper, and CG had an off game, no one was capitalising after that pass out of the double team. So United weren't scoring.

CG's in some good form now- so is Kennedy, so I doubt that strategy would work as well.

Reply #733615 | Report this post


paul  
Last week

Brisbane disrupted Melbourne's half court offence well, in a number of ways, forcing them to play quicker than they like and in situations they weren't comfortable in, and at the other end the Bullets' ability to move the ball quickly and hit from outside is the antidote to Melbourne's physical pack defence.

That's why Brisbane have won the last three between them. Now they're a shadow of that team at the moment, and missed open three after open three against Cairns, but after a break heading into the SFs maybe they'll be a renewed team? Would make for a great series if that was the case.

Reply #733616 | Report this post


LV  
Last week

Yep. Makes sense.

I think if we see United vs Bris, I'll start having flashbacks to 2015-16, United was minor premiers but NZ was the bogey team for different reasons. They were too strong in the air. United's three ball game was overpowered by them. During the season they'd beaten United the last 3 (to be fair the last 2 were the last weekend of the season and dead rubbers from United's point of view, they'd already locked up top spot).

But the only time United had beaten NZ that season was the 1 point win early in the season at Hisense in the middle of their 9-0 start, assisted by a questionable call against Webster on CG in the dying seconds.

A bit like this season, United's only win vs Bris has an asterix, Patterson was very fresh and Davis, Kendle werent there. Different team.

The final result in 2016- NZ outmuscled and outrebounded United in the semis. United got manhandled. Wasn't even close.

Still, United has shown all the strings to their bow lately. They've looked like a more versatile outfit in their recent high scoring wins. Hopefully Brisbane taught them some lessons and they're ready to go this time. You always learn more from losing than winning.

Or maybe they'll play Adelaide.....Or Sydney!

Reply #733617 | Report this post


paul  
Last week

That's a really interesting comparison. Match-ups definitely matter, ask Brisbane about Sydney!

Possibly one difference is NZ beat Melbourne with toughness and playoff experience, where I reckon Melbourne have that in spades over Brisbane (with the exception of Gibson and Vukona). Personally I think Brisbane and Adelaide are very good teams, but they lack the consistent toughness of the top three.

Reply #733618 | Report this post


koberulz  
Last week

assisted by a questionable call against Webster on CG in the dying seconds.
Only in your world was that call merely "questionable".

Reply #733619 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Last week

Loeliger said they couldn't have scripted this final round better. Obviously he meant giving Melbourne two home games in the final round, three days apart, which is unheard of.

Sunday’s Perth vs Melbourne will decide top spot. Will be a massive game.

Reply #733622 | Report this post


paul  
Last week

It would be a great final round if Brisbane and Adelaide were playing each other!

Reply #733623 | Report this post


LV  
Last week

Melbourne's had a home game vs Perth in the last round of the season for the past couple of years - it's becoming an annual thing.

Playing for top spot (assuming United beats Cairns) in the last game of the season.

As Paul said, the only thing that could top that would be if Brisbane were playing Adelaide for the last playoffs position.

Reply #733629 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Last week

So why do they get a home game three days earlier? Has any other team had a double header with both games at home this season?

Reply #733630 | Report this post


paul  
Last week

Yes. NZ had one a couple of weeks ago. I reckon fair chance there were others.

Reply #733631 | Report this post


LV  
Last week

Actually, if I was going to pick a schedule I'd much rather have Perth’s finish to the season, with a luxurious 9 day break between home games on the 1st and 10th of Feb. They’ve had 3 weeks at home without leaving Perth on the eve of the playoffs.

Perth’s got 4 games in Feb, United has 6- with double headers in the last 3 rounds.

Sydney’s got 12 games from Jan 1 to season end. United has 11. Perth has 10.

Perth had a heavy schedule early in the season- where their familiarity with Gleeson was of benefit compared to teams like Cairns, Sydney and NZ who had almost entirely new rosters and/or new coaches.

So actually, if you want to talk about schedule, Perth’s had a far easier finish to the season than their main championship competitors!

Reply #733632 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Last week

"Sydney's got 12 games from Jan 1 to season end. United has 11. Perth has 10."

Wow, any other stats you want to cherry-pick?

Reply #733636 | Report this post


Jack Toft  
Last week

LK would be super, super excited. Nothing is finalised until the very last game.

All indications lead to a Melbourne minor premiership. They play Cairns in a Valentine's Day Massacre match at home, then square up against Perth to reclaim top spot.

Sydney have one game left and will finish 18/10 and maybe 103%, so should finish 3rd
Adelaide need to beat Perth to secure 4th, or else rely on New Zealand beating Brisbane in Brisbane on their behalf (hey, Brisbane is the home of the brown paper bag in the carpark)
Cairns will finish bottom regardless, but The Breakers can leap frog Illawarra by beating them at home, and then getting a W against Brisbane.

Lots of exciting things to come this next round

Reply #733646 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Last week

Melbourne retards lose at home to shit Cairns.. now what

Perth beat adelaide they finish top?

Reply #733999 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Last week

according to the first post in this thread
"If United loses to Cairns they can still finish 1st if Perth lose against Adelaide and then they beat Perth on Sunday."

Reply #734053 | Report this post




 

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