D2.0
Last month

Is "Next Star" a bust?

I think a different version/concept might work well.

Obviously it was an epic fail this season. We got ONE player, and only got him because he was suspended.

My understanding is that they are basically chasing the "one and done" type players. Young stars who will only do one or two seasons at college, treading water until they can nominate for the draft.
The logic being, that rather than playing for free, and worrying about academic progress in a useless degree that they won't even finish, they can make some money, open themselves for endorsements, and get experience in a men's league.

I understand the logic, but I think it ignores a few flaws.

I don't think the American Basketball Industry will, as a whole, look favourably on us pinching their stars. They want the hype, they want the college highlights, they want the fans already following these kids.

How highly regarded is our league? WE know that our league is a lot tougher than college, and a kid who would be an All Star at college will be a bench player here. And WE know he'll be better for the experience. But is that going to help his draft prospects? There's a lot of money and prestige attached to being drafted early, and being "out of sight & out of mind" could harm that.

It's a gamble. If a kid is thinking he'll by O&D, but for whatever reason doesn't shine as a freshman, he can simply delay and try again as a sophomore. Not sure that's an option if he's already turned professional.

Ferguson was a good proof of concept, and it seems to have worked out ok for him. Have to wait and see how it works for Bowen.

But mostly what I seriously question is our ability to regularly attract 9 or 10 players of similar quality.
I'm also not sure why they should be a free extra player. Unless the league can guarantee every club a high quality Next Star, then there has to be some penalty for those clubs that get them. Otherwise we just make the strong teams even stronger.

Topic #44876 | Report this topic


Anonymous  
Last month

Wasn't a bust for Sydney was it

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Fryz  
Last month

The similar option in the G League (Select Contracts) they announced will effectively kill it. I'm not sure if that has started yet, but wasn't it a guaranteed US$125k? With the added bonus of an American platform to play on.

http://www.espn.com.au/nba/story/_/id/25015812/g-league-offer-professional-path-elite-prospects-not-wanting-go-one-done-route-ncaa

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koberulz  
Last month

If a kid is thinking he'll by O&D, but for whatever reason doesn't shine as a freshman, he can simply delay and try again as a sophomore. Not sure that's an option if he's already turned professional.
Why not?

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Lovebroker  
Last month

I don't see it as a bust yet but if the subscription rate continues to be one team then it could be considered a bust.

Next season I would like to see every team have a next star.

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alexkrad  
Last month

Maybe if they cant attract 9 per season they should go into a pool and drafted in reverse order of last seasons ladder?

Reply #735422 | Report this post


Duke Fan  
Last month

"they want the college highlights"

Even before the much publicised injury to Zion Williamson yesterday there were a lot of folk saying he should "shut it down" and sit out the rest of the season. There's quite a big groundswell of opinion building that the NCAA are ripping these kids off and they'd actually be better off sitting at home playing video games rather than playing for "nothing"

I don't agree but the sentiment is there. I've seen the value if a Div 1 scholarship at a big school equated to $125K per year but they don't get that as cash

You're right though that the kids would probably love to have the whole experience, particularly at a big time school. A parent of a highly touted future draft pick might see it differently

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Duke Fan  
Last month


koberulz
A couple of hours ago

If a kid is thinking he'll by O&D, but for whatever reason doesn't shine as a freshman, he can simply delay and try again as a sophomore. Not sure that's an option if he's already turned professional.
Why not?


I believe you can play 4 years of pro ball without losing your draft eligibility? I may be wrong

Reply #735425 | Report this post


Lovebroker  
Last month

They should just allow the NCAA players to make money out of their own name and likeness.

The NCAA still make a lot of money off college hoops.

Reply #735426 | Report this post


Duke Fan  
Last month

"The NCAA still make a lot of money off college hoops."

Yes they do indeed

http://www.espn.com/college-sports/story/_/id/22678988/ncaa-tops-1-billion-revenue-first

Reply #735429 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Last month

"I don't think the American Basketball Industry will, as a whole, look favourably on us pinching their stars."

The "American Basketball Industry" isn't a thing, dude. Different parties have their own interests. Of course the NCAA wouldn't like it, but they're only one piece of the puzzle.

Pretty sure the NBA doesn't give a shit what the NCAA thinks about this or what route players take, beyond ensuring players are generally better-prepared for the NBA when they arrive and maybe the costs involved in scouting someone that's overseas.

Players will do what they think, or are told, is best for them. They also don't give a toss what those involved with the NCAA think.

Agents want to get paid.

Not sure how this is a "bust" when we're we'r not even 1 year into the initiative.

Reply #735431 | Report this post


PeterJohn  
Last month

To get the league's view of how they expected the G-League initiative to affect the NBL's Next Stars program, check out this article - https://www.foxsports.com.au/basketball/what-the-nbas-new-gleague-program-for-oneanddone-athletes-means-for-the-nbls-next-stars-program/news-story/e00f7af5a62a7a42f8d4fbfdfea53e81

From October last year, a week into the 2018-19 NBL season. I doubt their view of the situation has changed a lot since then.

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robt  
Last month

FWIw, The way Ennis was recruited seemed to make sense, all sides.

The NBL (Perth) got a quality player, he had already been drafted (Miami??).

Ennis got excellent experience.

Miami got a great(er) player.

We all know that!

It seems that the NBA have some respect for our NBL now, and no, not just cos of Ennis.

Wouldn't deals between our NBL & NBA teams make sense? They draft a player who needs developement, they "lease" him to someone else (NBL team), When he's needed or ready, he returns (end of season or immediately with a replacement?).

Wage would be shared, a stipulated amount by the NBL, the rest of his contract, by his (NBA) team.

Don't know anything about Ennis/Perth deal but that's a model to (re)consider.

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Perthworld  
Last month

The word you're looking for is "loan" and it's done all the time in football. This to a limited degree occurs in the US now with NBA players dropping back to the G-League and in Europe to lower division clubs but it would help the NBL and basketball worldwide if it was more common place like it is in the world game.

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D2.0  
Last month

Sorry if I wasn't clear, my point/question was that a kid who fails to live up to expectations as a Freshman, can simply continue as a Sophomore, and nominate for the following draft. Having a quick look at the top prospects for this Draft, most seem to be sophomores (apart from Zion, etc.)
A kid who turns professional and struggles, does he have the option of going (back) to College??

The "American Basketball Industry" IS a thing, DUDE, its the Industry of American Basketball.
NCAA Ball is worth squillions. I doubt they're going to sit on their arse twiddling their thumbs whilst we try to poach their biggest stars.
Obviously the NBA is a different entity with its own goals, but there clearly exists a level of symbiosis, if not actual cooperation. The complaints about College kids playing for nothing has been going on since professional sports became a thing.
Besides, even if the NCAA and NBA are at each others throats, that's not a battle we want to get in the middle of

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D2.0  
Last month

I actually think there could be some benefit to taking a different approach. Target Juniors (or even Sophomores) who are clearly not destined to be drafted, but look the goods for a potential international career. Suggest that instead of another year or two playing for pizza, they turn pro, come and play in the NBL, and use that as a springboard into Europe. With the option of nominating for the draft later, and/or moving to the G-League.
We should showcase players like Ennis, Wilbekin, Craig, even Creek.
We could work with our partner Universities to get them credit for their basket-weaving courses, and actually work (part-time) towards a real degree.

Perhaps, if "Next Star" is to continue (in whatever form)
Then the 3rd Import Slot should be changed & restricted (eg with a salary limit) and if a team gets a NS, then it replaces that 3rd import.

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koberulz  
Last month

A kid who turns professional and struggles, does he have the option of going (back) to College?
If you've ever received money for anything in your entire life no, you're not eligible to play in college.

But why would you want to be? Yes, the kid who doesn't succeed to his liking as a freshman can take another year of not getting paid, but the kid who turns pro overseas can also take another year of playing professionally overseas, and still get paid for it.

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Anonymous  
Last month

"but the kid who turns pro overseas can also take another year of playing professionally overseas, and still get paid for it."

Assuming he's still good enough to be on a roster

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Anonymous  
Last month

"The "American Basketball Industry" IS a thing, DUDE, its the Industry of American Basketball."

What's your point? Basketball is a thing, and people exchange a significant amount of currency based on it. My point is you can't generalise when it comes to the stakeholders, as you claimed.

To refresh your memory:

"I don't think the American Basketball Industry will, as a whole, look favourably on us pinching their stars."

If the 'industry' is made of numerous parties, often with different and/or conflicting goals, there's highly unlikely going to be a consensus about whether players are part of our Next Star program. I just gave you reasons to back this.

"NCAA Ball is worth squillions. I doubt they're going to sit on their arse twiddling their thumbs whilst we try to poach their biggest stars."

The NCAA won't, correct. Most of the other parties don't have a reason to oppose initiatives like the NBL's that provide players with more options. Your generalisation, and the premise of your argument, is just incorrect.

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koberulz  
Last month

"but the kid who turns pro overseas can also take another year of playing professionally overseas, and still get paid for it."

Assuming he's still good enough to be on a roster
If you can't find anyone willing to pay you any amount of money to play basketball, you're not going to make the NBA in the next twelve months regardless.

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PeterJohn  
Last month

" Suggest that instead of another year or two playing for pizza, they turn pro, come and play in the NBL, and use that as a springboard into Europe. With the option of nominating for the draft later, and/or moving to the G-League."

That doesn't have the same promotional value as being able to promote these young kids as "future NBA". That was the primary reason for investing in the Next Stars program. Not to develop these kids or provide a new source of players for NBL - but to use the link to NBA as a promotional vehicle here in Australia and Asian TV markets. Few, if any, people not already following NBL are going to be excited by "future Euroleague" or "future G-League". So there'd be little or no return, in terms of increased crowds and viewers, from NBL investment in that approach.

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Anonymous  
Last month

"The "American Basketball Industry" IS a thing, DUDE, its the Industry of American Basketball."

Ok thanks for that explanation.

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Anonymous  
Last month

Only around 10 guys (maybe 15) each year that you could say with a high degree of confidence 12 months prior to any draft that they are going first round.

Reduce this number for one and done.

That is your challenge. Getting one of these guys to play NBL.

Ie this year. Pretty easy to identify Zion and RJ Barrett as NextGen candidates. Harder to get them to accept.

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K4L  
Last month

It helped Sydney have 5 imports: Randle, Wear, Bowen, Turner, Lisch (naturalised).

So it is a good thing.

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Anonymous  
Last month

A kid who turns professional and struggles, does he have the option of going (back) to College?

Mangakahia ......

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Anonymous  
Last month

if your looking at the next star players look on espn ncaa 100 list and next years 60 list that's were the next star players are coming from

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Anonymous  
Last month

"If you can't find anyone willing to pay you any amount of money to play basketball, you're not going to make the NBA in the next twelve months regardless."

But you could get a college education playing college ball

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koberulz  
Last month

Unlikely. And if that was your ceiling you'd do that instead of turning pro in the first place.

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D2.0  
Last month

So what, you reckon in a dispute between the NCAA and NBL, the NBA would side with us? Or even not have an opinion? Fat chance.

NCAA won't like it, because we're actually trying to pinch their biggest stars.
NBA won't like it, because we're messing with their draft.
Sponsors won't like it because we're taking their brightest emerging stars and plonking them on the bench on the other side of the world.
Commentators and Media won't like it for all of the above reasons.
Agents won't like it because X% of $100k is literal peanuts compared to the NBA and endorsements.

Have I missed out anybody involved in the American Basketball Industry?

Reply #735553 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Last month

"NBA won't like it, because we're messing with their draft."

How?

"Agents won't like it because X% of $100k is literal peanuts compared to the NBA and endorsements."

In case you need a crash course in how much college players earn:
https://www.hoops.com.au/forum/44874-zions-injury/

"Commentators and Media won't like it for all of the above reasons."

They feed off controversy. This seems controversial enough as opposed to going down the same route as thousands of other players.

"Have I missed out anybody involved in the American Basketball Industry?"

Again, what is the ABI?

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Anonymous  
Last month

Its the American Basketball Industry. It recently replaced the now defunct BIA (Basketball Industry of America) but not to be confused with the Industrie de Basketball Americano, which is the European arm of the ABI.

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Anonymous  
Last month

Thanks for the clarification. All this time I thought Dazz was talking out of his arse, but you've given me hope for a better tomorrow.

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Anonymous  
Earlier this month

"The @NBL Next Stars program would be as good or better alternative to college basketball than G League or Europe right now for guy who doesn't want to go to school, IMO. The basketball development, the coaching, the competition, mentorship by vet players, the language, etc." - Fran Fraschilla

https://twitter.com/franfraschilla/status/1101002025880506368

A member of the infamous ABI disagrees with your carefully formulated opinions, Dazz.

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D2.0  
Earlier this month

Um, no he doesn't.

As I said, we know how good our league is, and we know that a year spent playing and training in our mens league would be much better for a player's development than putting together a highlights reel in College ball.

Whether we're better than a European league depends very much on the league in question, but on the plus side the culture shock for kid would be much less coming here.

That's not the issue.
The issue for us is whether we can seriously attract 9 or 10 good quality kids every year.

The other point I should clarify, is that we are far more likely to attract guys like Bowen, which on the whole is not a bad thing. Ideally he will get drafted but late and could return for another season.

The problem really is that the Next Star player is a freebie, and we could end up with a wide disparity in the quality of the players.

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Anonymous  
Earlier this month

Sydney kings will get a transfer fee for Bowen, so its a win win for everyone next star play in a get league and the nbl team get a transfer fee

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Anonymous  
Earlier this month

"Um, no he doesn't."

Try reading and/or comprehending before posting.

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Cram  
Earlier this month

The concept of the Next Stars program for young Americans is sound. The problem being only a few players a year would fit into the small niche of
- not wanting/can't go to college
- talented enough to be worth bringing out to pay $100k
- decide as an 18 year old, coming to Australia is the best option.

With only 1 player satisfying those criteria this season, it isn't any more of a "program" than Tai Wesly being able to play as a local for some reason was a "program".

When you factor in the disadvantages (fewer minutes for Australian players, perceived bias in player being allocated to a team with plenty of talent already) it looks more and more like a bust.

If it didn't mean there was a team with 4 Americans currently on it, you could almost convince me its worth sticking to.

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Anonymous  
Earlier this month

the club make money when they get draft eg if Bowen gets drafted or just makes a NBA roster the nbl club gets a transfer fee just like what happened with Creek and the 36ers, The NBA nets team payed a transfer fee.

Reply #736051 | Report this post


Cram  
Earlier this month

Would that not require the player to have more than a 1 year deal? Why would there need to be a transfer fee for a player that is out of contract?

Wasn't Creek's thing that he had an out clause?

Reply #736053 | Report this post




 

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An Australian basketball forum covering NBL, WNBL, ABL, Juniors plus NBA, WNBA, NZ, Europe, etc | Forum time is: 1:18 pm, Wed 27 Mar 2019 | Posts: 766,173 | Last 7 days: 608