Locks are Delly, Mills, Ingles, Simmons, Bolden, Baynes, Bogut. Creek is a borderline lock.
This leaves 4 spots. We need another 5-man if Bogut or Baynes are injured, so unless we play smallball with Bolden, or experiment with Simmons at the 5, Landale sweeps in. We need another 4 man, which should come down to Motum vs Kay. Motum has the Euroleague experience, but Kay continues to improve and continues to impress in a Boomers uniform. Let them battle it out in practice.
The other two guard spots will be tough, and it might come down to form between McCarron, Sobey, Gliddon, and Goulding. Another wing who can guard the 2/3 is justified. I'd go with Gliddon, who is the closest to a 3-and-D option off the bench. We have the point position covered with Simmons, Delly, and Mills, which is why I haven't labelled any backups at the 1, but if either Delly or especially Mills go down, we need some insurance. Mills put up 61 of the team's 178 threes in Rio, overall putting up nearly double the number of shots than anyone else, so if Mills goes down, another volume scorer would be useful. Notice the correlation in Rio between Mills's perimeter shot dropping and the team's performance (such as 4/9 and 5/11 vs France and Lithuania, and 1/9 versus Serbia in the semis). Goulding's D is subpar internationally, but if we need a scorer with range, willing to launch a high volume of shots, Goulding is the best insurance option.
2 Mills / Gliddon / Goulding
3 Ingles / Creek
4 Simmons / Bolden / Motum-vs-Kay
5 Baynes / Bogut / Landale
My concern with this lineup is we may not have enough defensive options to cover dynamic PGs, so we need one of Delly or Mills always on. This is where I see merit in paul's lineup with McCarron (otherwise, Sobey).
Compared with Rio:
2019 - 2016:
Bolden - Andersen [stretch 4]
Gliddon - Broekhoff [3-and-d wing]
Kay - [Motum] [stretch 4]
Creek - Martin [defensive orientated glue guy]
Landale - Bairstow [5th big]
Simmons - Lisch [token American]