Nuggets obviously massive favourites, but the Heat will be used to that.

I reckon it might be a DB sweep - Heat win game one and then the Nuggets win the rest.

Championship odds:

Denver $1.33 $4.00 Miami

(Implies a 75%/25% probability.)

Nuggets in 6.

On paper you would suggest 5 games, but factoring in the Heat's competitiveness and Spoelstra it should be a competitive 6 game series.

Pat Riley can win a tenth ring.

Jokic's title to lose

I think we are witnessing something very special with this dude and when it’s all said and done his career will exceed legends like Larry Bird!!!

Nuggets in 5

Jokic's path to his ring

8th seed
4th seed
7th seed
8th seed

In one sense, whenever you play deep in the playoffs you're competing against a quality group who's in great form. But at the same time, most would agree this was one of the easiest paths to a title, playing the dysfunctional Timberwolves, the Suns minus Chris Paul for most of the series (and a couple of others in the last game), then the over-achieving Lakers and Heat with their rosters full of kids and no-names supporting their stars.

If you look at the regular season records, the Nuggets opponents combined for 174-154 (.530).

Of course the Heat and Lakers played some amazing bball in these playoffs, (and as I predicted above, the Heat may well make this a very competitive series...or even win the thing). But if you're assessing how great a team is, it's relevant whether or not you can sustain winning basketball over a 6 month grind.

Of course part of the difficulty with assessing these things is how much turnover there is in the NBA- how good were Suns and Lakers really? Hard to say with their teams changing late in the season

Precisely, the conspiracy theorist in me felt like it was a path setup for LeBron.

Boston will be kicking themselves although what could they have done when their head coach was suspended and ultimately fired during the season.

I think the suggestion that this is a lesser championship because of the seeding of the opponents is dumb. They've gone through KD, Bookers, Lebron, Davis already.

If anything it shows the parity of the league rather than just a few super teams. Isnt this what we want?

Get this ESPN noob off the screen with his pointless updates during breaks

I agree, this is indeed what we want

It feels like the league's new CBA from a number of years ago is doing it's trick by incentivizing players like Giannis, Embiid, Jokic to stay with their franchises.

Giannis won a title already and Jokic is probably about to, both mid market teams without historical success. But their contracts prevent their franchises from poaching other stars. I like this set up.

The parity is great. To have viable contenders emerging from the play-in, and fancied squads knocked down a peg, is exactly what you want in sport: uncertainty. You want as many fanbases as possible to feel like they're a hope, and you want the rest to feel like they have a clear path to return to strength.

There are teams with burgeoning rosters (e.g., OKC, maybe Orlando), in a better position than expected (Utah) or growing through the draft. Not as many in no man's land (e.g., Washington).

Even on the cusp of the post-season, fans were nervous about the Warriors' return, about the Lakers' potential, the Clippers getting healthy, Suns on paper, etc. There were quite a few viable contenders which is perfect.

Whereas the WNBA is going in the opposite direction, with Las Vegas Aces and New York Liberty having 6 of the 10 All-WNBA selections from last year between them.

Both teams have multiple MVP's and No.1 draft picks.

Interestingly the Liberty lost their first game, but have won their last 3 to go 3-1, Las Vegas are 4-0, with the 7 victories mostly being quite lopsided as per the pre-season predictions. Sandy Brondello is coaching New York and Cayla George playing for LVA so fair chance we have Aussie representation on this year's champion

Good result today pointing towards a competitive series. Miami opted to take scoring Jokic over passing Jokic.

yeah as much as Spo will fight anyone who says thats what they did.

Its a rough one for the Nuggets. Jamal was deferring and they were doing fine for most of the game but then the Heat just went lights out - most efficient 4th quarter by any team for a couple of seasons. Nuggets D has to be better no doubt, but Murray might need to force the action just a little.

Miami can't rely on getting that hot again, but at the same time they've come away with a split with Jimmy being terrible offensively. Still think this is the Nuggets to lose, but its looking more and more like a real contest.

I guess we should stop being surprised that the Heat can compete at this point hey?

Jamal definitely came out more aggressive today and it definitely made an impact from the jump. He's up to 26 and 10 now for the series on pretty good shooting splits. The Nuggets need him at that level as its clear they're not getting a consistent third option. Braun was good today but can't be relied on.

Jokic and Murray both with 30 point triple doubles and the Heat were still a chance.

Definitely an entertaining series so far, despite what some people expected.

Two great teams that play team, Jokic in foul trouble and nuggets hold tough. Well done to Denver they probably deserve this championship. Miami still very competitive and long shots but still a chance.

Credit to both sides, congratulations to Denver, Miami never go away. Jokic is unstoppable at both ends.

+1

Likewise. There was a point where I was sure it would blow-out, but not so. To keep it a contest in that situation is admirable for Miami.

But I like seeing a franchise get their first championship, so Denver were pretty easy to barrack for. Great team setup and core rotation. Gordon's size paid off and he would've tormented and exhausted a lot of Heat players throughout that series.

Has been an awesome playoffs and finals series overall I reckon.

Good to see another aussie with a ring.

Heat need to make some changes to take that next step I think, but wow for them to even get to the finals is amazing.

Glad to see Denver win it, always better than seeing the big market teams winning.

Well done Denver. As said above, love to see a team get their first championship. Jokic is a genuine all time great in the making. Still well and truly in his prime with a good young core around him. Salary cap will make it harder with complimentary pieces over the next couple of seasons, but they've got every chance to win a couple more in the next few years.

Heat had an amazing playoff just through sheer will and hustle, but in the end the talent difference finally got them. Jimmy did some amazing things, but struggled more and more as the playoffs progressed.

Jokic is a pleasure to watch.

Nuggets had a good run with none of their starting 5 missing any games during the playoffs, but with that 5 all returning next season, and 4 of them locked in for at least the next 2 seasons (exc Caldwell-Pope) I'm expecting them to go deep again.

Great to see a city like Denver get some success.

I never really watched Denver until these playoffs and liked the way they play ball. Good actions smart play, not much iso.

Like others I'm stoked a small market team won the title and even more happy that it was a team that had never won before.

and an ugly stepchild former ABA team at that. Well done Nuggets.

I agree, Mystro.

I expect the super-teams to try to become even more 'super' through trades and the like. Who is LBJ going to bring in next season to make sure he gets one more ring? His teams go through players faster than I go through socks!

I dont think you will see a major star signing with the Lakers in the offseason, they need to try keep Reaves which will chew up some money. Best they could potentially get is CP3 at a cheaper deal if he is willing to take less money, but CP3 isnt what he used to be and cant stay healthy.

Denver in all honesty are primed to go back to the finals next season, but teams in the West will definitely look different next season.

I think Playoff Jimmy has been replaced by Playoff Jamal

His career playoff play, compared to regular season, is off the charts good

Never been an all-star.

A scoring guard who's never finished in the top 25 of ppg in a regular season (43rd this season with 20.0ppg)

And look at his playoff performances

I said before the Finals I would've liked to see him replicate against the Celtics, but end of the day, Heat made the finals and they're tough as nails competitors, and Murray continued being awesome. An incredibly body of playoff work

The Heat are missing one more big who can contribute similar to Aaron Gordon. Just too small at the moment.

I think there's going to be heaps of teams with a chance to get it done next season. While the Nuggets will be in the box seat no doubt, what we're seeing now is teams finding it very difficult to get dynasties going. We've had 5 different champs in a row now. Salary cap pressure etc makes it difficult to keep good cores together. Add in injury histories of Jamal and Porter, Brown likely getting more money elsewhere and anything can happen.

The Lakers could genuinely be contenders with some tinkering rather than star hunting. The Celtics and Bucks will likely be back right at the top of the East and the Sixers could have their best chance with Nurse in charge.

I wouldnt be surprised to see the Warriors go for one last dance too, trading in their young guys of Kuminga and Moody and even Poole for some talent to get it to the top one more time. I dont think any of those guys are serious franchise players, so why not go all in on forcing this window open for another year or two while you've got an all time great?

My Raptors seem to be about the push the blow it up button, so a guy like Siakam could well be available.

Interesting take on a number of teams Cram, the only one I probably feel is out of reach will be the Warriors, they got some big contracts on that team which may prove too hard to move in order to improve.

Lakers to me is the most interesting, whilst they dont need a star player to be successful I think they do need a star player for when/if AD goes down hurt. With AD and without AD are two very different LA teams.

Sixers are going to be interesting, will Harden return?

Definitely a unique and suspenseful era

The NBA's new bargaining agreement appears to be playing a role here, helping keep guys like Giannis and Jokic in small cities

In the 80's Lakers won 5 and Celtics won 3, with the Pistons going B2B at the end.

1991-1998 Jordan won 2 3peats with the Rockets winning B2B in the middle.

1999-2010 The Lakers won 5, Spurs won 4, with 1 each to Pistons, Celtics and Heat, but Shaq played on that Heat team, meaning Kobe, Shaq or Duncan won 10 of 12.

Mavs won 2011 in one of my favourite finals.

2012-2018 was mostly about Lebron and Curry.

Since 2019 you've had a range of franchise players and clubs winning titles (with Lebron and Curry adding one more each).

Looking ahead, you've got Giannis and Jokic trying for Title 2, or Celtics and Tatum, or Philly and Embiid going for their first. Lebron and Curry might not be done yet. And others will emerge too- Doncic only needs the right players around him. Cavs have a good young group alongside Mitchell. You can't write off Durant and Booker together. Etc.