What is their position? I don't understand this first and second group stage yet.

Their position is second in their first group, which results carry onto the second group when we meet the top two of Slovenias group.

Basically for us to advance to quarter finals we need to beat both Slovenia and the team that accompanies them through. For us to finish first in the second group we need other unlikely results to fall our way.

Finishing second almost definitely leads us to a match up with Canada in the quarters. Winning that likely puts us against USA in the semis. It's not ideal, but if tjeu truly believe they can win a gold medal, that's the path.

I think we'll win, but I think we shouldn't let our guard down. (It's Japan's home and they've got momentum from beating Finland.) It's important not to get psychologically shaken up because the referee's calls could probably go in Japan's favor. Japan has a lot of good shooters and has been in training camp for two or three months, so they are well organized.

As for the key player, I would pick Kay.
I think Kay will do well in this match, he's played the most against the Japanese national team for the Boomers, and the league is based in Japan as well, so he has the experience advantage.

As a team, it's important to use our size and athleticism. Japan is very small in size, so I hope to make the most of the mismatch.
Their only bigs are Watanabe and Hawkinson, so it would be nice to be able to foul them out quickly.

Win or go home for both teams isn't it? Germany are 2-0 us and Japan are both 1-1 and Finland 0-2 so assuming Germany are all but through the other team to qualify in our group would be us or Japan depending on the result tomorrow night?

If Finland beat Japan, and we lost to Japan, we would've had a chance to progress on point difference. But since results carry over to the 2nd round, it would be extremely difficult/unlikely to be able to make it through to the quarters after a 1-2 start. So the Japan game is a must-win anyway. The Finland-Japan result should mean nothing to us. If we want to make the quarters, we need to beat Japan.

I wouldn't be worrying about quarters lets try and get out of the group stage first.

Like I said in the other thread, don't let Tominaga shoot, keep Hawkinson off the boards and slow the 2 pgs down that cause chaos for big guys.

I hope we win. That is all

What time is the game?

7pm WST / 9pm EST

Well that sucks. The 4.30pm NBL slot works much better for me.

I'm loving the tipoff times since it's in our timezone here in WA.

"Basically for us to advance to quarter finals we need to beat both Slovenia and the team that accompanies them through. For us to finish first in the second group we need other unlikely results to fall our way."

How does Slovenia match up against Germany? If Slovenia beats Germany we would have a 3 way tie for first granted we win our remaining games? I think we could compete on point differential.

Japan have played their final. Aussies to win easily.

Slovenia and Georgia will await. Slovenia sans Cancar & G.Dragic. But both good teams.

Australia are 1.06 to win, implying a 94% chance, with home advantage already baked into the price.

Japan's home advantage*

"How does Slovenia match up against Germany? If Slovenia beats Germany we would have a 3 way tie for first granted we win our remaining games? I think we could compete on point differential."

I am actually not sure but I dom't think they're as good as us or Germany. But when you've got Doncic you could bring a social team with him and be a threat. Going to wwathc the Slovenia-Georgia game in about an hour to get a better feel on that.

As for points for and against, we are at 23+ 1 W 1 L. Germany are on 18+ 2W. If we get a three way tie with Slovenia we may not even qualify unless we run some scores up. Scores will determine who comes first in that case. But if we're meant to medal we'll surely get some luck. The hoops gods have screwed us enough surely.

Either way if we progress through it all, our quarterfinal opponent would be one of Spain, Canada or Latvia. We're going to need our Weetbix and to be a bit further down the development track than we currently are.

Slovenia had stronger odds for the World Cup over Germany so there's that (the concern with that statement is that if we can’t beat Germany can we beat Slovenia!)

We definitely want to come first at all costs. I personally will be rooting for Slovenia to beat Germany. I think we can run up numbers in Japan and Georgia games. We got a big win over Finland and didn’t lose much on Germany.

The other option to potentially get us on top of Finland beating Germany seems much more unlikely.

I just don’t see us competing against Canada and and that track leads to USA in the semis.

The media also started talking about a lineup change. I don't know if there will be a lineup change or not, but I think tomorrow will be a really interesting game.

Japan @ $12 is perfect for insurance betting. Anti-embarrassment insurance.

Maybe getting out onto the court and having a decent warm up before the game might be a good start. In the Germany game the boomers players were very late out, Boomers coaching staff were all out on court, Germany were all out about 8 minutes earlier. It was a hectic mess for several minutes once the Boomers players got out on court, had a photo taken and then into a rushed warm-up. Was little surprise that they weren't ready to go.

Start Exum at 1
Mills at 2,
Green at 3
White 4
Reath 5

Green's defense to generate transition points early and establish an exemplary intensity.

Exum and Reath to run P&R

Mills comming off screens for curl cuts and back door plays

White hitting the offensive glass for put back points.

Cooks to bring continued energy off the bench.
Giddey to watch good defense from the bench, then come on and copy it.
Thybulle off ball defense, and offensively, please attack the rim with speed when there's an opportunity instead of opting for a kick out pass
Kay and Ingles relative spot minutes.

^ I'm dreaming though.
Can't see Goorj making any notable changes TBH

I agree with your thinking, Knockdown. Some obviously-beneficial changes which are unlikely to be made.

So far, there has been no synergy between Giddey and Mills.
However, Boomers is likely to keep both players starters until the end of the tournament. Because they recognized Giddey as the leader of the next generation and Mills is the best player.

If the lineup changes, it is highly likely that it will change from Thybulle to Green. In fact, Thybulle did well when he played off the bench.

If another person is changed, it will be Kay. Kay can be a good pair with Mills, but there is little synergy with Giddey against best teams.

The biggest problem with the current starter lineup is that there is no synergy between Giddey, Mills and Kay in offense and defense.

We need to pay attention to today's game. Kay is played the most against the Japanese national team for the Boomers, and the league is based in Japan as well, so he has the experience advantage. That's why he's likely to continue to be his starter. But if the Australians change their lineup, it should be today. Because today is the last match of the group stage and the next match is the second round.

Reath has no reason to change.

Kay matches up well with the Japanese, can't see that changing, if anything I’d bring in Green for Giddy and let Mills run the point till the first change.

I don’t like how we now start blaming refs, certainly don’t remember that during the Lemanis coaching reign, it never helps.

Australia should win this comfortably, any other result and it’s time for changes. Boomers by 20.

"As for points for and against, we are at 23+ 1 W 1 L. Germany are on 18+ 2W. If we get a three way tie with Slovenia we may not even qualify unless we run some scores up. Scores will determine who comes first in that case. But if we're meant to medal we'll surely get some luck. The hoops gods have screwed us enough surely."

If it's a three way tie, only the point difference of games between the three teams will be counted. We are not that bad, only -3, while Germany is +3. If Slovenia win Germany by more than 2, and we win Slovenia by more than Slovenia win against Germany, we'll come first.

^ I'm dreaming though.
Can't see Goorj making any notable changes TBH

I wasn't realistically suggesting 4 changes be made, that would never happen.
But yeah like you said Luuuc, at least one change should occur.

Im a Cooks fan in this tournament, but I prefer his energy off the bench to give the team a spark midway through the quarter.

I don't like mills at the 1.
He's a shoot first guard and is better suited to the 2.
So I'd like Exum at the 1 and green at the 3
Again, wishful I know, but something has to change. These slow starts could easily cost us the game against better teams in future rounds.....if we get there.

Against Japan why not shake things up? I know we cant go in with a "we will win" attitude but I think if we are going to shake things up a bit this would be the game to do it.

Id be throwing in Exum for Giddey. I would keep Green on the bench as we need shooting coming off the bench which we wouldnt have much of otherwise.

Gaze and the girl on commentary, Germany v Finland

In Tokyo, Goorj went from Delly starting to Delly playing just 2 minutes in the bronze game. Goorjian is willing to make changes, but in the case of Delly, it took a long time.

I can see there have been issues with Giddey and Mills together, but I can't pinpoint why. Before this campaign, I thought Giddey and Mills would work very well together. Is Giddey domineering the offense too much, taking away from the usual motion / off-ball movement offense that Mills thrives on?

If Finland beat Germany, we can finish on top of the group, provided we beat Japan. Go Finland!

Finland playing very well, Germany struggling, 22/19 to finns

Well that turned quickly

Changing quickly, I'm surprised how well German bench has gone

rjd
"Is Giddey domineering the offense too much, taking away from the usual motion / off-ball movement offense that Mills thrives on?"

Yeah, it appears to be the case thus far.

It would be a bugger if the poster-boy for the Boomers and likely captain is the one who most struggles to fit into the Boomers FIBA style of play because he's adapted to the NBA so well.

I thought Kay would be the starter today because of his experience. However, I changed my mind after watching the Japanese match video. They are not very tall, but they are very fast and have accurate outside shots.
So I rethought the starter
Giddey - Mills - Green - Cooks - Reath

But I thought about it again.
If we advance to the second round, we will face Slovenia, and their ball handler is Doncic. Doncic is not fast, but his strength is very, very strong.
Then Giddey - Mills - Thybulle - Kay - Reath is fine.
Continuing lineup changes can confuse the players, so against Japan, they may play the same lineup.

Germany by 26 hasn't helped the boomers after a nice start by Finland.

Got to win and try get points, simple task and should get it done.

I'm just hoping there are no non calls that need reviewing in this game.

I think we just have to win at this point. Someone clarified that point differential will only be used for the teams that are tied in the games they have played each other?

I'm just hoping there are no non calls that need reviewing in this game.

Liking Trev's pre-game analysis and insight. The other three I could do without.

Starting 5:

Giddey
Mills
Green
Kay
Reath

I like it

Liking Trev's pre-game analysis and insight. The other three I could do without.

I actually like all 4 people in the pregame - kane pitman is better in this role.

NBL should endeavour to replicate this

Giddey lifting.

Does the margin matter at all for the next group?

Yes, results are carried forward to the second group stage.

Is there a particular reason the refs are so bad?

I was wondering whether there's a head to head aspect and points difference between those.

If it’s overall points difference, I’m not sure this game does us much good anyway given Slovenia are ahead and have Cape Verde...

We need Germany to beat Slovenia whilst Australia lose at any point and their cup is done

Good start, Gleeson is a gun commentator.

Finally some semblance of an offence from the starting five.

X is loving this tempo

Absolute gold reaction by Gleeson re: Sydney Kings.

Get on the boards, Josh!

I'm going to paste this here regarding tiebreakers since the same question keeps being asked:

Classification of tied teams

1. Point difference in games among tied teams
2. Points for in games among tied teams
3. Point difference in all group games
4. Points for in all group games

This is more like the Boomers - lots of counter-attack and offensive movement, resulting in heaps of assists. Cooks really suits this style of opponent.

This style of opponent - i.e. an inferior one - suits many of our players tbh

" 1. Point difference in games among tied teams"

So why does the margin of this game matter then?

It doesn't. Unless we are tied in point difference among tied teams (unlikely)

Would like to see more white minutes over Kay

That's what I thought - I think PW didn’t understand that I was asking if the margin for this particular game matters

Aussies won’t be any where close to Slovenia in all probability in terms of points difference

Hopefully a strong 2nd half start and we get some White, Goulding & DD time.

Okay, I'm with you now.

So if Slovenia beats Germany by 5 and Australia beats Slovenia by 6 - does Germany not make it?

Assuming all other games are wins for those three teams

This style of opponent - i.e. an inferior one - suits many of our players tbh

Green certainly changed the mindset starting, Cooks does what cooks does around the ring as Gleeson says been great. Opposition ain't great but boomers going forward. Bring on Slovenia.

Reath should look to score in the low post instead of continually passing it out.

Loving Green and Cook's energy at both ends

Thanks, Perthworld. Knowing that criteria changes everything. Where did you find that info?

Agree with above, should give white a run over Kay

So if Slovenia beats Germany by 5 and Australia beats Slovenia by 6 - does Germany not make it?

Assuming all other games are wins for those three teams

Thanks, Perthworld. Knowing that criteria changes everything. Where did you find that info?

If 3 teams tie on points the refs can call for a video review

Still no White or Goulding??? Why on earth not?

"This style of opponent - i.e. an inferior one - suits many of our players tbh"

Josh Giddey = the Dave Warner of FIBA basketball?

We play Slovenia first, so strap yourselves in for some funky Germany-Slovenia collusion afterwards because we all know where FIBA headquarters are located.

Aus getting lazy, ingles a bit too careless.

Aussies are clunky af

" We play Slovenia first, so strap yourselves in for some funky Germany-Slovenia collusion afterwards because we all know where FIBA headquarters are located."

Hahaha

Oh fuck, they would actually do that too

This is stuff you learn at 14... don't stop until the final buzzer.

We really need to smash Slovenia to fade any funny business.

Disgraceful to giving up that last rbd.

Just turned the game on after being out.

HOLY cow Xavier Cooks. My God.

Ok the game has long been over, but that doesn't mean you stop playing defence. That qtr was pathetic. Embarrassing to let them pile on 35 pts.

Terrible lineup by goorj

If Japan gets within 10, I'm going to be very nervous

Why is Ingles not taking the open 3?
He's passed up a few now.

Why not give Goulding some minutes? Did he run over Goorj's dog or something?

Australia are really frustrating to watch this tournament

We need Green to come back to correct this D.

Holy crap, we sort of deserve to lose for a wake up call.

"If Japan gets within 10, I'm going to be very nervous"

They won't, but even if they did, we ain’t losing this. It’s disappointing to see us coasting like this though. It’s ridiculous and a bit embarrassing that Japan is outrebounding us.

Gleeson, Cooks padding his stats missing give me's under the basket. Lmao.

Such a disappointing half. We're not beating anyone decent playing like this.

Well done Giddey, retarded from goorj leaving Hawkinson to feast

Why was Ingles so afraid to shoot tonight?

A lot to dislike about that 20 point win.

Giddey clutch, and X was great from start to finish. Kinda meh elsewhere though.

Why the hell did our coaching staff allow Kay and Cooks to switch pick and rolls in the 4th? They CANNOT defend when they're backpedaling. Put them in aggressive coverages or get them off the court!

Cooks was the difference-maker, but I highly doubt it translates against bigger, better opponents. He was allowed to feats on offensive rebounds and his finishing below the rim is relatively poor.

Thybulle and Ingles were out of sorts tonight. For whatever reason, this is a very disjointed group.

Australia's biggest ever score at a WC. Japan's biggest loss of tournament so far, exceeding 18 v Germany. Overall a good night's work. Giddey and Cooks unreal.

I think Japan's repeat penetration and dish showed the Boomers are lacking a defensive set where the big drops and the guard chases over the pick to force Japan into long twos or contested shots at the hoop.

By always showing or switching, they became reactive and ended up chasing bodies all over the floor.

Good result even though second half was average. Japan should be very happy how they performed.

Thybulle has not been good. Hopefully a monster game v slovenia.

I would have got Daniels and White in there, picking up full court, when things got a bit stale. Use their hunger to advantage

This group stinks of entitlement... They have half their mind in the quarters and for that reason I bet we don't make it that far.

This board stinks of disrespect for other teams at the World Cup!

Yeah can we just appreciate a good win instead of calling people "retards" and criticising everything? God

Green and Exum need to play more minutes, energy is completely different when they are on court. Can't believe White didn’t get a run until junk time. Ingles looking like super slo mo Joe.

"This board stinks of disrespect for other teams at the World Cup!"

Harsh. It's not disrespect to note that our boys got a bit lazy and disjointed in the second half. Japan realistically shouldn’t be scoring 54 points in a half against us.

Yeah, regardless of the opponent we played a lot of sloppy basketball. That's the worry. We're not looking at all like a focussed and cohesive unit.

The third quarter was disappointing. The other three quarters were good, playing against a home team who were playing for their lives. Dominated them in the first half, slipped in the third quarter, controlled the tempo in the last term.

"Harsh. It's not disrespect to note that our boys got a bit lazy and disjointed in the second half. Japan realistically shouldn't be scoring 54 points in a half against us."

because we took our foot off the gas because the result was already done and we are trying to save energy for the important games

Giddey's accent.

Lol at the participation medal people here.

It's a World Cup, Australia has multiple fourth place finishes in major tournaments recently plus bronze, they’re ranked third in the world.

High expectations *are to be expected*

Lol at the hysteria people. Any 36ers pre-season vibes?

Exactly right.

X m.o.m for me, although Hawkinson scored lots, his rebound count was kept down.
X had 16 rebounds.

Kay a worry with just 3 rbds

"This board stinks of disrespect for other teams at the World Cup!"

How happy do you think Spanish or German or English fans would be if their soccer teams only beat the Socceroos say 1-0? Or really anything less than 3-0.

It wouldn't be disrespectful for them to be frustrated. It would be completely understandable, actually.

Well, given Germany beat Japan by 18, and the Boomers beat them by 20, you'd look at this result being about par.

I've loaded up the permutations for Group K and the grim reality of our situation is really setting in now.

Really appreciate Gleesons' observations:
- Continue to attack the rim,
- Run a press break to beat the trap
- box out on the defensive glass,

Good hearing these things from an accomplished coach, as they were obvious to most of us on here too.
That's not to be nitpicking, but rather if we clean up those things, and stop having lags in concentration and execution, then we'll get easily exposed by better teams.

Speaking of execution, we looked very un-cohesive as Luuuc and others have mentioned.
It's unconvincing despite a 20 point margin.

I don't understand Ingles' reluctance to shoot the 3? He needs to be more aggressive....unless he's feeling off for some reason.

In the half court, our guards are very stagnant off the ball, which if it continues, will make it way too easy for teams to defend us.

I dunno, we won by 20, but it just didn't look convincing in terms of execution and focus.

Credit to Cooks for incessant energy.
Green needs to start again. Loved his game tonight.
Reath, please be more aggressive in the low post when you have a seal.
Giddey's defense was better tonight, and his offense was hus best so far.
No idea why White was barely used???

Defensively the 'switch everything' plan probably wont work against Slovenia as Doncic will devour the switcher everytime.

"Speaking of execution, we looked very un-cohesive as Luuuc and others have mentioned."

Japan make it look that way with the pressure they apply, but the group executed well through the pressure. 109 points at 52% and 31 assists to 7 turnovers tell that story.

Agree Gleeson's analysis is excellent, and agree 100% that cutting out the small lapses is going to be a massive factor in how far the Boomers go.

Anonymightymouse, a worldcup isn't about nations singing kumbaya and handing out medals of participation.

People are going to come with valid criticisms which are obviously going to offend your sensitivities.

You may need to cover your eyes as the below realities may offend:

There is a lot of altheticism but we don’t know where our scoring is to come from - our three largely desserts us, we are too small to make headway down low unless they’re so small as to be Japan.

There are periods where they lose the plot and don’t know who to go to. Giddey doesn’t actually resolve that.

It’s 36ers vibes absolutely - a stacked team that is hard to trust because the holes are visible and potentially critically problematic. Ironically in the same ways: height issues, scoring issues...

They lost to Germany, they’ve got themselves in an extremely tough position.

Valid criticism and it’s reality.

" I've loaded up the permutations for Group K and the grim reality of our situation is really setting in now."

Don't be so entitled PW, we should be happy to have made the next group.

There are lots of good countries, don’t you know?

I think you can be respectful of an opponent and also know that you should be doing better against them. Japan fights hard and they are fiesty but they don't have height, length or athleticism, that's just what it is. We shouldn't have given them 35 points in a quarter and they shouldn't have been able to spend an entire half trading baskets with us.

I know the talking heads on TV will talk about how great they were, but outside of Cooks, everyone else was pretty average at best. I know that people turn their brains off when they've got a big lead, and maybe we were nnever in threat of losing the game, but in a team that has shown mental lapses too many times before, it speaks to a deeper problem.

These expectations aren't just ours, they're are meant to be THEIRS. They came in rattling on about a gold medal, and gold vibes only, and they're playing like a middle-class team. I am the biggest Boomers optimist you will ever find. I do still believe ths team 'can' do something in this tournament, but there's not been anything they've done on court for longer than a few moments that justifies that belief. That might be a harsh thing to say after a win, but it's true.

The team doesn't look like a contender to me. They need to get much better. I don't care if this is Japan's biggest loss, or Australia's biggest points total, it still does not pass the eye test. I was encouraged to see a bit more offensive verstaility at times but the defense was quite often abysmal. There were echoes of our issues with Germany, with us giving way too much space to three point shooters. Turn those guards into drivers and they wont be able to do much. Give them an open shot and there's a good chance they hit it.

We manage to live and fight another day but it's clear to me that it isn't quite there yet EVEN STILL with this team.

"Japan make it look that way with the pressure they apply"
True, they pressured us very well, but im also referring to a lot of our half court sets....we just look out of rhythm, we dont know where our points are going to come from.
There was also hesitancy to shoot from Ingles, Reath, Exum. They all overlooked ooen or easy shots when their defendar was out of position.

I just think that better teams could really expose us in that regard.

^ Completely agree ME. Well said.

You can look out of rhythm when other teams disrupt your offence. Japan are good at that and so are the Boomers. It's how you run your counters that matters.

Australia scored 109 points at 52%, with 31 assists to 7 turnovers, showing they executed well through the pressure.

FG% and assists are cool and all, but are not addressing the concern that while producing that we let a mediocre team pile 35 points on us in a quarter.

ME, I think you gave a perfect example of disrespecting international basketball. Losing by a basket to a team that was on the podium in Europe isn't "playing like a middle-class team", it's going head-to-head with one of the best.

I understand the desire for this Boomers team to be dominant, because we've won a medal now and want a gold, but dominant isn't realistic with the line-up we have in.

How many minutes in major tournaments have Green, Giddey, Cooks, White and Reath played between them?

This isn't the same experienced side that walked into the previous few tournaments, this is a talented team but one in a transition phase at both ends of the court.

Hopefully they qualify for the Olympics and then win some tough games to go deep into the tournament. If they do it will be a great achievement.

Next year, with Landale on board and those newer players with more experience under their belt, I'll expect them to be better.

"FG% and assists are cool and all, but are not addressing the concern that while producing that we let a mediocre team pile 35 points on us in a quarter."

As you know Luuuc, that's a different discussion from the one about the team looking out of rhythem offensively that those stats are responding to.

Defensively, there were some issues in the third quarter for sure. Up above I said in regards to that:


"I think Japan's repeat penetration and dish showed the Boomers are lacking a defensive set where the big drops and the guard chases over the pick to force Japan into long twos or contested shots at the hoop.

By always showing or switching, they became reactive and ended up chasing bodies all over the floor."

Solid showing. X was phenomenal. Japan were respectable and kept it from slipping away. Yeah we lost focus at times but I like that we stuck with a short rotation rather than trying to find minutes for everyone as well. I'd like to see White eat into Kay's minutes depending on matchups.

Bottom line we've been sloppy/undisciplined. It cost us vs Germany, and probably cost some bench guys some minutes tonight. More to the point it is uncharacteristic for the Boomers and a noticeable dropoff from recent tournaments.

The plus side is the amount of scope for improvement we have left in us if we can clean it up.

I agree Anonymightymouse. Great analysis.

"ME, I think you gave a perfect example of disrespecting international basketball. Losing by a basket to a team that was on the podium in Europe isn't "playing like a middle-class team", it's going head-to-head with one of the best."


We sleepwalked through most of the first and third quarters and left a glaring hole in our D unfilled with Kay being murdered on the top of the key. That's middle class shit.

"Next year, with Landale on board and those newer players with more experience under their belt, I'll expect them to be better."

Okay so then we're admitting medalling isn't the goal anymore with a sentence like that. Guess who decided to take all these new players? Goorjian. Guess who keeps Goulding on the bench when he could have taken Delly who at leastbrings some hustle and experience? Goorjian. Guess who kept Baynes at home on a team clearly lacking size, and sent home his 3 other big men before camp even with his main big man under an injury cloud? Goorjian. It's not like we absolutely had to have an inexperienced line up - THEY OPTED FOR ONE. Then they're going to say "gold vibes only" and when the public gets a bit like, "ok then what the fuck is this shit," you see Goorjian get all defensive and pissy in the press converence as he did tonight, saying "oh we just got the bronxe medal, and now we're playing for our lives, I'm playing for my job..." and it's like, yeah dude, you are, this is international basketball. If you wanted to go through a transition phase maybe you could have done it slightly differently.

And once again, no Goulding. His pick looks more and more ridiculous by the day. No matter how we shoot, the day when his shooting is more important than the walking defensive hole he would be, is not coming.

"We sleepwalked through most of the first and third quarters and left a glaring hole in our D unfilled with Kay being murdered on the top of the key. That's middle class shit."


That's hysteria. Against one of the best teams in Europe we won the first quarter 25-24 and won the third quarter 22-13. We lost the second and fourth quarters.

Our auto Olympic entry is a real possibility now.

Cant see making it... or should I say not imo
Goulding
Ingles
Kay

Leaves…
Mills
Vasiljevic
Mcdowell-White
Proctor
Exum
Green
Thybulle - needs to improve, JGalloway coming up, cotton looking less likely.
Daniels
White
Giddey
Cooks
Pinder
Simmons
Reath
Landale
Maker

THarvey might also be a slim chance being potentially eligible mid next year.
He just turned 30, cotton now 31.

So If Australia defeats Slovenia by 4 or more AND defeats Georgia by 4 or more....

Then we will definitely advance to the quarters.

Because that would make us 4-1 with a positive point differential in a 4-1 tie breaker (regardless of whether that tie is Aus/Ger/Slov or Aus/Ger/Georgia or Aus/Slov/Georgia)

Or if it wasn't a tie breaker then 4-1 would get us in purely on W/L (if Germany also defeat both, making Ger 5-0 and Slov/Georgia 3-2)

Of course by the time we win the first game by 4 it may become apparent we don't need to win the 2nd by 4. We may just need to win it. But at this stage we can predict that a pair of 4 point wins would be enough.

Points differential doesn't matter unless Theresa 3 way tie. Win the next two games and we are in otherwise

johnny furphy could start pushing for a spot as well. What is it with our big guard/forwards this generation? Is it the hormones in chickens that made all our kids bigger?

@ME "but outside of Cooks, everyone else was pretty average at best"

you think Giddeys 26/5/11 on 61% was average?

Whether the tournament structure says it is or not, we're in knockout basketball now.

Personally I think they should just change the format so that it officially is just knockouts after the first group stage.

We absolutely must beat Slovenia

If we lose to Slovenia...

- That makes us 3-2 (assuming we beat Georgia).

- And it means we finish below Slovenia, who would be 4-1 or 5-0 depending on the result of their game against Germany.

- We would then have to finish ahead of Germany, who have already beaten us.

The only way we could make the next round would be if BOTH Slovenia and Georgia beats Germany. (And we beat Georgia).

Making us, Germany and Georgia all 3-2 and then we'd have to rely on points differential.

So, basically impossible.

^ The above assumes Slovenia and Georgia advance, which seems very likely but will be confirmed after tonight's results

We are on collision course with Canada that threatens to snuff us out at 8th. But St the same time I an not sure how to rate them. They smashed Francd but France really weren't good in this tournament. They beat Latvia, that beat France in a close one. It would make life easier if they had played Germanu and then we would hsvea barometer for how good Canada really is. Clearly they're very good but are they being inflated with playing underperforming France and a Latvia that may have got slightly lucky? Canada vs Spain in the second group will be telling

I disagree, Cram.

I like this structure, because it (almost) guarantees that the best will prove it over the long haul, rather than run the risk of being knocked out after one bad game.

It also helps to develop the game and fans and financial backing in other countries, which under your system wouldn't - or couldn’t - afford to come if there was the likelihood of only one game. I don’t want to see the game dominated by wealthy countries.

And I certainly don’t want to see a cricket-like approach where there’s an entrenched elite group of 12 (say), with promotion/relegation for another other 4 (say) spots.

*after the group stage, obv

Current system is good

The things that suck about it are external things.

eg

-they should allocate more spots to European teams and less to Africa/Asia. I understand the overall goal but I would lean towards 2 or 3 more Euro spots. Say 4 African teams instead of 5, 1 or 2 less Asian etc.

- There will always be significant discrepancies in strength of Round 1/2 pools - caused by issues like- there isn't much international bball getting played, and players won't always be available for qualifiers, and world rankings don't always mean a lot.

Japan with a really good chance to get the Asian Olympic berth. They'll go into the classification round 1-0 thanks to beating Finland, then will likely play Venezuela and Cape Verde. No other Asian team has a win to carry over at this point, so one more W should get Japan through.

The African spot is a lot more interesting, with Angola, Sth Sudan, Cape Verde, Egypt and Ivory Coast all having wins. So barring any massive upsets today to send CV or IC into the second round, they'll all enter classification level-pegging. Has been a decent tourny for African teams.

Win the next two games and we are in otherwise

Of course by the time we win the first game by 4 it may become apparent we don't need to win the 2nd by 4. We may just need to win it. But at this stage we can predict that a pair of 4 point wins would be enough.

So, to remove all doubt, we have to smash Slovenia on Friday to avoid any shenanigans between them and Germany on Sunday.

Unless there is a miracle and they lose to Cape Verde tonight.

I actually don't understand what you guys are talking sbout. As far as I can see if we win both Slovenia and Georgia we go through. Is that wrong?

Yes, as if AUS/GER/SLO are tied on a 4-1 record (1-1 against each other) it goes to points differential as the tiebreaker. Tiebreakers were discussed above.

Re-reading what LV wrote I think he's thrown into the mix a potential tie scenario between AUS/GEO/SLO as well which KET and I went under the assumption wouldn't occur, but it is possible if the Georgians defeat Germany. Mind extra blown and although it would help us a lot as we would control our own destiny going into the last game.

ME, that's right if Germany also beat slovenia
Germany 5-0
Aus 4-1 (head to head tie breaker)
Slovenia 4-1

If we win both, and Slovenia beat Germany,
Germany 4-1
Aus 4-1
Slovenia 4-1

Three way tie so it goes to point differential

If Germany and Australia both beat Slovenia and Georgia, then Germany and Australia get through.

If Germany beats Georgia, Slovenia beats Germany and Australia beats both Slovenia and Georgia, it goes into a tie scenario with points differential.

Germany is +3, Australia is -3.
Australia would need to have a top 2 differential.

If Australia loses to Slovenia (or Georgia), they are out.

Basically if we win both games it isn't enough on its own as Slovenia defeating Germany could eliminate us based on points.

There could also be a four-way tie scenario going into Sunday if Georgia defeat Germany in addition to our win against Slovenia on Friday.

It actually would be more beneficial for the Boomers this way as the two winners on Sunday would go through rather than having to be at the mercy of the other result.

If Australia beat Slovenia by 2pts and Slovenia beat Germany by 2pts the points split would be:

Germany +1
Slovenia 0
Australia -1

The likelihood is two wins will be enough to get Australia through, but it's not impossible to miss if the stars aligned.

I know there's been upsets, but it's very hard to see georgia getting close to anyone in the next round

Basically we need to win against Slovenia (and by as much as possible) and Georgia.

If Georgia manage to upset Germany, then any win against Georgia then gets us in. If Germany beats Georgia, we'd prefer that they also beat Slovenia.

Any other scenario involves points difference and will be tough.

That's why Georgia were ignored in the original permutations but it made for some extra fun scenarios.

The problem now is Germany and Slovenia will have an inherit advantage, if it comes down to a three-way on Sunday, since they can manufacture a scoreline which sees both go through.

So how can we come first and miss Canada?

The likelihood is two wins will be enough to get Australia through, but it's not impossible to miss if the stars aligned.

So how can we come first and miss Canada?

[The likelihood is two wins will be enough to get Australia through, but it's not impossible to miss if the stars aligned.]

As I said in an earlier post, the only way to *guarantee* we make quarters is to beat *both* Slovenia *and* Georgia by 4 or more.

That would get us through on point diff.

If point diff was equal, it reverts to....some other tie breaker!

So how can we come first and miss Canada?

The ideal scenario is we beat Slovenia by lots, and Slovenia beats Germany. Then we can finish 1st,

But ultimately Germany is outside our control. If they win both, we cannot finish above them.

Our focus is what we can control- win both games by 4+ and we'll make quarters, irrespective of anything else.

Margin of victory against Georgia in the last game will be irrelevant as points differential used in the first tiebreaker only counts points scored for/against the other tied teams, i.e. games played between AUS, GER and SLO.

I think some of the above posts are incorrect

If Aus beats Slovenia by 4+ then our point differential is positive in a 3 way tie.

You cannot have 3 teams with a positive point differential in a 3 way tie. One must be negative.

In other words, if we beat Slovenia by 4+ then it's impossible for Germany or Slovenia to "manufacture" a way to knock Aussies out.

(My above post assumes the 3 way tie is Aus/Ger/Slov which looks the most likely 3 way)

A correction to my above posts. It's still *possible* we could win both by 4+ and miss out.

In a 4 way tie, it's possible that 3 teams could have a positive point differential and one could have a (probably sizeable) negative points diff

So Aus could win by 4 in both and end up with +5.

Two other teams could have +6 or more, and the other team could be -17 or worse (which would likely be Georgia based on existing results).

"The problem now is Germany and Slovenia will have an inherit advantage, if it comes down to a three-way on Sunday, since they can manufacture a scoreline which sees both go through."

Given the margins would be super fine either way I'm not sure this is realistic. Slovnia wouldn't want to risk losing to Germany and falling out just to let them stay within a few points.

[Two other teams could have +6 or more, and the other team could be -17 or worse (which would likely be Georgia based on existing results).]

Actually no- this is impossible- Germany would have a maximum of +1 in a 4 way tie (if they lost to Slov and Georgia by 1 each).

Also Aussies wouldnt be in a 4 way tie if we won both by 4+.

So my original post was actually correct.

Win both games by 4+ and:

- Aussies are 4-1 so the only tie could be a 3-way tie (you cant have a 4 way tie with 4-1- for Slovenia to be 4-1 after losing to Aus, they must beat Germany. For Georgia to be 4-1 after losing to Aus, they must beat Germany. That would make Germany 3-2)

- Aussies have positive point differential regardless of who shares the 3 way tie

I think some of the above posts are incorrect

If Aus beats Slovenia by 4+ then our point differential is positive in a 3 way tie.

You cannot have 3 teams with a positive point differential in a 3 way tie. One must be negative.

In other words, if we beat Slovenia by 4+ then it's impossible for Germany or Slovenia to "manufacture" a way to knock Aussies out.

LV you're all over the place.

Are you meandering between discussing a three-way and four-way tie now to obfuscate your incorrect margin comments relating to the Georgia game?

I'm going to leave you be.

Given the margins would be super fine either way I'm not sure this is realistic. Slovnia wouldn't want to risk losing to Germany and falling out just to let them stay within a few points.

Following on from the above (if it's possible, anyway), if Germany wanted to manufacture a Slovenian win by resting their best players, what would be the repercussions? FIBA would lose a lot of credibility, and there would be a lot of demands for simultaneous games (which the media would refuse), but would anything change? The Euro buddies would go through and Australia could complain all it wanted.

If it were a (hypothetical) case of Japan and Australia manufacturing a result to keep a Spain out, THEN I guarantee that there would be repercussions and changes.

@PW see my new thread- deserved it's own thread

I temporarily got confused but then realised my original comment was correct.

But best to discuss in other thread.

I think the key message here is if we beat Slovenia by 4+ and beat Georgia we are through.

Goodness me, my head is spinning from reading all of that. But thank you everyone for contributing.

@PW see my new thread- deserved it's own thread

I temporarily got confused but then realised my original comment was correct.

But best to discuss in other thread.

Goodness me, my head is spinning from reading all of that. But thank you everyone for contributing.

"I disagree, Cram.

I like this structure, because it (almost) guarantees that the best will prove it over the long haul, rather than run the risk of being knocked out after one bad game."

I get all that Hoopie, I just think its better for competition integrity and for fans to just have win and in lose and you're out.

Points differential deciding who advances to me is really problematic in basketball (definitely more so than in football). There's so many things that can happen in a game that can affect point diff but be negligible in terms of win-loss.

With points def coming into consideration you can end up with teams not even trying to win, but just trying to cover the spread which isnt good for competitive integrity.

I personally like the current structure, it's a mix between a bigger group stage and direct into knockout after a small group stage.

Something I wanted to ask but forgot to, anybody watching this on Kayo having the same issue as me where the screen goes green for up to 5 seconds at a time almost every minute or 2?

Fair points, Cram.

I'm a fan of the 'pools then pools then knockout’ idea, but could see it being gamed. Perhaps we need an equivalent of +/- so that it’s based on more than just points LOL. But that still wouldn’t stop the possibility that the top team might try to engineer a result which allows a ‘friendly’ team to come second, kind of thing.

Perhaps it might need simultaneous games, so that no team knows in advance what the target differential actually is. Isn’t that what FIFA does now in their World Cup?