Round 12 ABL
Firstly I dont claim to have the wit and quick tongue of Jack. I have added some bits and pieces I found amusing, and some stats that may be of interest.
More than anything I was hoping to just create a thread for Round 12 discussions.
Sturt (2nd 9-2) v North (3rd 8-3) @ Pasadena
MOTR. The Sabres have a perfect 5-0 record at home, however the Rockets have an envious 4-1 road record. The last time these two met the Blues got over the line by 4 at Hillcrest. It took a galant 4th quater effort by Sturt, in what was a scrappy and defensive focused affair, to force North into shooting 11% from the field. Hill had 15 and 11, with only 1 other North player in double figures. Where as Sturt had 4 contributors sharing the load in double figures. Im going to say North in an upset, and to take the split.
Woodville (7th 3-8) v Norwood (1st 11-0) St.Clair
Maybe Simon should take a note out of Pop's book, and rest the superstars, however im sure the Norwood big wigs want to avoid a hefty ABL fine for disappointing the masses at St.Clair. Last time round the Flames got up 87 - 52 with Woodville not disgracing themselves. The Warriors were only outscored in the 2nd half by 2 points, whilst pulling the same number of boards, and forcing 17 turnovers and taking 13 extra shots for the game. The difference was shooting %. Norwood 50%. Woodville 25%. Norwood to win comfortable, and to crack the ton.
Forestville (4th 8-3) v South (10th 0-11) @ Wayville
Will Sharon pull an Andy (excuse the pun), and find a suitor to take them to the GF? With their line up they shouldn't need one, and seem to be playing below what their squad suggests they should be. This night will be much of the same old, same old. Forestville got up by 24 last time round, in a game that featured more total turnovers than either teams shooting percentage. Look for the eagles to build a solid first half lead. Then take the pedal off to cruise to a 30 point win. Unfortunatley for South, your not gonna win games shooting 28% from the field.
Eastern (5th 8-3) v West (6th 5-6) @ Hills
Port Adelaide was set on fire (dont get any ideas BSA) last time, by none other then Tess Madgen. Shooting 9/13 from 3, dropping 47 points and 13 rebounds. However Eastern only got up by 9. This was due to a solid team effort by West, with multiple contributors. I dont have the latest news on the availability of Tess, however the equation is pretty simple. With Tess, Eastern win. Without Tess, West win. However this is a crucial game from the Mavs to stay in touch with the top 5 and try and sneak a few positions up, and this is do or die for West.
Southern (8th 2-9) v Centrals 9th (1-10) @ MV
Well the tale of the tape for these two teams this season doesnt suggest barn burning quality. 55 turnovers, 28% from the field and 42 fouls. The only shining light was the play of Denelle Fawcett. 29 points @ 60%. Southern clearly rebuiled after an exodus, and Centrals also rebuilding after the same fate. Both teams from contender to pretender. Im going to say Centrals, in what may be the worst game of the year.
Sturt (4th 6-5) v North (5th 6-5) @ Pasadena
Equal MOTR. 2 of the 4 teams currently competing for the pivotal 4th and 5th spot and crucial to the season for these sides, so I expect a high intensity and emotional game. Sturt on a 2 game streak, however under the .500 at home, and better on the road. North dropped their last game, and have the opposite record for home/away than that of the blue boys. If Petrie plays, North win comfortably. If Petrie doesnt play, the result will be the same as
Round 3, North still win, but must closer.
Woodville (2nd 9-2) v Norwood (8th 5-6) St.Clair
Woodville keen to win this game, to stay ahead of the traffic jam behind them, and this being an absolute must win game for Norwood to stay in touch to see some August action. Woodville have only dropped one game at home all season, and Norwood having average away record, doesnt help their cause. Last time round saw the Warriors get up by 16, and that was with the Doctor having a shocker from the field, shooting an unclinical 20%. Hard to pick against Mean Al Greens Machine, but I dont think they run away with this one by too much.
Forestville (3rd 7-4) v South (9th 1-10) @ Wayville
The by-law dodging, salary cap bending, apple eating Eagles look to consolidate 3rd spot on the ladder this week against and undermanned and underexperienced Panthers. Hard to see the Feagles being beat, particularly if Gibson suits, and if he does this game might be a blow out. If Gibbo is seen slamming a granny smith, they may only win by 20. Panthers to only record 2 wins this season if their lucky. Anyone feel like this game is bit of Moneyball,
25k v 7.5k? Cmon Oakland!
Eastern (10th 0-11) v West (1st 9-2) @ Hills
Last time was a 24 point game in favour of West, in which DJ recorded 20 and 9 in 22 minutes and JC didnt suit. Again this time round no DJ and no JC, how will this effect PB. Perhaps BT will be less PO'd... unlikely? How many shots will it take CS to get to 10pts? Perhaps only the SB's know. Eastern to win this game by 20.
If West don't show.
Southern (6th 6-5) v Centrals 7th (6-5) @ MV
Equal MOTR. Centrals coming off a pasting last week at the hands of the Adam's Eagles, and Southern coming off a big win against Westies. Last time round the Lions got up by 14, however this was on the back of a double header where the Tigers boys almost knocked off West the night before expelling a bit of energy. Sam McDaniel is a revelation for Southern this year and the young pairing of McDaniel and Ellison, and the youngish Vet in Michael Florance, make for an exciting group. Southern are on a 2 game streak, Centrals on a -2 streak. However my tip,
in an upset, is for Miller to go off, and Centrals to win, based on experience alone.