Zodiac
Years ago

36ers playoff scenario

Win both games this weekend and finish 3rd.

Win 1 of the 2 games then we would need NZ to lose both of their games.

Lose both games and can't make the playoffs.

http://www.news.com.au/sport/adelaide-36ers-star-jerome-randle-in-race-for-fitness-as-nbl-playoff-hopes-sink-with-breakers-resurgence/news-story/9b182a3909c135ec935ea6df36f13515

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XY  
Years ago

Still have to hope NZ does not win both of their remaining games for your first scenario to come true.

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razor  
Years ago

No that would result in a 3 way tie with Hawks & Breakers in which Adelaide would come 3rd.

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Isaac  
Years ago

Losing the split with NZ is likely to hurt them badly.

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XY  
Years ago

Sorry, thought Illawarra had one more win than that, so yes, there could be a three way tie for third.

Can't see the Sixers beating Perth in Perth though. We have been their bunnies lately.

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Hendo8888  
Years ago

We need Melbourne to win both games to have any chance tbh.

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Matthew  
Years ago

Would Adelaide feel too bad with Finishing 5th though? After what they probably expected at the start of the year , 5th would of seen as pretty good.

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paul  
Years ago

Yes. They would have expected playoffs for sure after the past two years.

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Kobe24  
Years ago

Yes they should definitely feel they under achieved if they finish outside the 4. Interesting season, but overall pretty bad, have never really shown they are a true contender.

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Zodiac  
Years ago

Given the 36ers were picked to finish 7th with most betting agencies at the start of the season I think they would take finishing 5th and just missing the playoffs.

A few weeks ago? Probably not if Randle hadn't gotten injured probably expected to finish 3rd or 4th.

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Dave  
Years ago

I Just hope Randle re-signs. I'd hate to think I've watched him play for the last time...

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swish  
Years ago

On court the 6ers would have to be dissapointed to miss the playoffs, but they have found a great import who is brilliant to watch seems to love the team / town and helps the team play exciting basketball, and I would think they've had their best attandances for many years.
They also got a new owner not long before the season and found a naming rights sponsor.

I hope they can get another win and make the finals BUT I wouldn't call the season a failure if they just miss out.

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LV  
Years ago

I didn't expect Adelaide to make the top 4- and neither did most people- so in my mind, finishing 5th wouldn’t be an under achievement at all.

In reality the 36ers got lucky and then they got unlucky - one of their imports got injured and they stumbled across a replacement who produced one of the best individual seasons I can remember. Whether Randle wins MVP will come down to whether he just missed too many games, like Childress did last year- but bottom line is he’s been easily the most influential player this season in the games he’s played and he almost single handedly dragged them into the top 4. And then they got unlucky- because their league dominating superstar managed to sustain an injury at the worst possible time.

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Anonymous  
Years ago

I find it mind boggling that any team would accept missing the playoffs as okay. How can you consider a season successful unless you win the championship or at least make the playoffs?

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LV  
Years ago

Success is relative to expectations.

I bet you that the majority of Townsville's fans consider this season a success, and the majority of Cairns’ fans consider the season a huge failure- despite Cairns winning a few more games than Townsville.

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Anonymous  
Years ago

They better sign Randle now because I can see another club or to throng huge money at him in the offseason. He ill probably attract even bigger offers elsewhere

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Anonymous  
Years ago

I'm sure they would be doing everything to try and re-sign the guy now rather than the offseason when people's interests have switched to footy.

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Hendo8888  
Years ago

Will still be disappointing to finish 5th, regardless of the pre-season expectations. But I'd feel a lot better about it if we re-signed Randle for next year.
If he leaves and this is the only season we got to see what he could do, 5th is a very disappointing outcome.

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Matthew  
Years ago

Im actually surprised Randle hasnt signed yet. I know Adelaide would announce it to the world if he had and after that piece a while back about how much he admired Joey I just assumed that would hit the day before the annoucement. I think Sydney is the one most likely to pursue him.

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PeterJohn  
Years ago

I hesitate to offer a view on the 3-way tie scenario but I thought that most likely results in Illawarra 3rd and 36ers 4th?

Illawarra are 4-0 and +70 points against NZ
Illawarra are 1-2 and -19 points against Adelaide
NZ are 2-2 and +7 points against Adelaide

In the 3-way scenario, the mini table would be Illawarra 5-3, Adelaide 5-3, NZ 2-6.

So 3rd and 4th would come to points' differential between Adelaide and Illawarra in the 3-way mini table. From the above, Illawarra are currently +51 and Adelaide are currently +12. So I think Adelaide would need to beat Illawarra by at least 20 points to take 3rd in a 3-way tie.

Is that right?

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Dazz  
Years ago

The rules aren't really clear, except that yes NZ would finish 5th in the event of a 3-way tie.
Hawks and 6's would still be tied on 5 wins each, but at that point the rules are not clear whether they go to the points advantage because of the 3-way, or whether because it is then only two they drop back to the 2-team advantage.

Adelaide's best chance is that MU put away NZ twice, then suit up Randle for the final game and hope the Cats, with nothing to play for, rest players, run their bench, and are otherwise half-assed.

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Hendo8888  
Years ago

If Townsville didn't shit the bed and give up the last 9 points of the game, then got flogged in overtime, we'd probably be playing Illawarra for a spot in the Playoffs on Friday.

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paul  
Years ago

"Given the 36ers were picked to finish 7th with most betting agencies at the start of the season I think they would take finishing 5th and just missing the playoffs."

Clubs don't set their goals on what the bookies think! Adelaide finished 2nd and 3rd the past two years, not making the playoffs would be seen as a failure and so it should.

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Anonymous  
Years ago

Hi PeterJohn I corrected you over the weekend about the other mini league issue. But this time you are correct.

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razor  
Years ago

I think FIBA rules are pretty clear. It first goes to win/loss record between the 3. Where 2 teams have the same win/loss record it goes on the games between those teams. Adelaide would win the hypothetical 3 - 1.

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LV  
Years ago

Internally, Adelaide's players will be disappointed if they miss out. Of course. Joey Wright will see it as a failure. Of course.

But that doesn't mean that rationally, relatively objectively that their season is a failure.

Without Randle (ie: How they started the season) they simply do not have a top 4 level roster in this year's NBL. With Randle they're borderline.

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Kobe24  
Years ago

They lost me very early on with their import choices after seeing what rosters other teams were putting together. They really put together a mediocre team compared to last seasons. Thankfully things turned around when Randle arrived, BUT i just cant figure out what they were thinking with Mcnial and Ebi as the original choices. Was never going to make the playoffs and that shouldve been the goal in the offseason. Again has been worth going to and definite interest once we got lucky with Randle though.

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paul  
Years ago

We'll have to agree to disagree LV. I agree it won't have been a disastrous season if they miss playoffs, but it will have been an underachievement for a team with their talent, experience and continuity.

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Kobe24  
Years ago

LV with Randle they are in the 4, I dont know who misses out, but they are in.

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Anonymous  
Years ago

I still don't believe crowd numbers are better overall than last year. They have lost seats with the RAA whatever that is apart from a waste potential space. I remember capacity crowd numbers being up with members actually attending and using their seats. A sellout means nothing unless everyone who has membership turns up and its numbers through the door that counts. 11/12 wins or something like that was incredible last season and drew huge crowds.. Would love to see the plus minus over the season.

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Anonymous  
Years ago

Any team would have been spanked by NZ this last week or so with Ced, Abercrombie and Webster getting the hot hand and the reffing allowing the contacts on the blocks. Not to mention Pledge back inthe mix. It was all in the head in that first quarter that did the Sixers in. Happened in last years playoffs with Perth too. Any team missing their hot shooter would have lost to cairns. They are a class act. My concernnis some coaching decisions early season that surfaced in response to the NZ game 1st quarter. There was no patience. Sixers desperately need a solid big and not an athletic 3/4 man, a genuine Jervis, Pledge, Burston type to support DJ so he can spread. He is not heavy enough and has too much athleticism and needs to get out and run to give his best so needs support. Been sayin it for years. Let him out to run with and put in a muscle man. Last year BJ although lacking height did the work and was killing it before his achilles went. For me Indon't understand why Petrie is not copping more flack for leaving the back door open and I am pretty sure he has lost his court vision. He is not a good pairing for DJ anymore. Some solid recruiting needed and a dedicated defensive rim beast is needed to complete this team. Perth has Jawai and thats the reason behind their success as their team is aging and losing their ability to run. Pity he didn't take Adelaides offer.

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PeterJohn  
Years ago

razor - I think you're right.

NBL Media Guide from 2012-13 states "If teams are tied at the end of the season, ties will be broken by the head-to-head record of the tied teams, if possible.
Teams that finish the season tied in win-loss and tied on head-to-head will be separated by points differential in games played only between those tied
teams. Teams that still remain tied will be separated by total points for divided by total points against for the entire season against all opponents, with the
highest percentage winning the tiebreaker."

So Adelaide would get 3rd, regardless of points' differential, if they win this Friday and finish in a 3-way tie with NZ and Illawarra.

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Camel 31  
Years ago

Saw Randle running on a million dollar anti gravity machine at port power club. Like running thru the air. I swear I could almost sing!

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Anonymous  
Years ago

PeterJohn it's me again. razor is right but not 100% right because if all three teams end up at 16-12 then that is a different scenario as you need to account for records between all three but Adel would still get in.

But if only Adel & NZ are tied at the end (Ill are one game better) then Adel lose on season series split points differential.

Adel can still end the season 3rd (win three way mini league), 4th (if tied with Ill ONLY (not NZ) assuming a win @ Ill this week) or 5th if TIED ONLY with NZ.

So 3rd 4th or 5th still possible.

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