AshT
Two years ago

Betting: NBL Round 12/WNBL Round 13

Boxing Day,

Brisbane Bullets 3.32 & +6.5 @ 1.90

Open air game that was roof closed for Bullets last year due to conditions. United down strength but were on fire in the ref-gate win over 36ers, with names plus bench stepping up. Bullets in good shape and form at present and they did seem caught-out as comfortable with selves when overrun by Kings. United reproducing same confidence & form would prove a major hurdle but Bullets on a loss response could well see them on the scout and as the hunter. Win price has trimmed slightly to 3.25 but they do look the value play tonight.


Melbourne United - Brisbane Bullets Under 175 @ 1.90

Conditions in the well shielded arena should be fairly OK. United 5-10 @ 171ppg. Bullets 6.5-9.5 @ 174ppg. Also some good numbers around home, away & similar opposition. United on fire for 190 last game, while Bullets were 196 but no 36ers or Kings involved tonight, instead I suspect coaches could be involved in keeping this down. Of some note, United only averaged around 168 in each of the past three seasons.

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Brunson  
Two years ago

Great call on the total! Just unlucky on the result.

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AshT  
Two years ago

Thank you! Unfortnately Bullets, to their detriment, aren't exactly the most high octane team with a lead in last quarters, so that was always the worry.

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AshT  
Two years ago

Friday,

Adelaide Lightning -9 @ 1.95

Some chance Lightning are a little flat off big efforts last week but more likely they will have this spread covered. Richards is out for Bendigo, Oliver returns. Current line has blown out to -14, only a little under where it should be IMO.


Canberra Capitals - Perth Lynx Over 162 @ 1.90

Rank #1 & #2. Lynx start-out on a heavy travel schedule, with no need to show up but coach has stated will look to maintain form & momentum - wise approach IMO. Capitals loaded with scorers and look for any opprotunity to play up tempo, so I suggest Lynx sitting prime scorers might not be enough to keep this under.

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Mort  
Two years ago

What is the reason for the fire closing in from a pick em 1.90/1.90 to now 1.60-1.70? Public money? or an injury I havent noticed?

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AshT  
Two years ago

2.18 - 1.81 (Tattsbet) is best prices I can see. Flames opened fave from what I saw. I was in agreance with Fire tipping over to slight fave and haven't heard of any players in doubt but it's reasonable to think it's simply support for the Fire off recent form plus hint of doubt about just how strongly Flames are going.

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Anonymous  
Two years ago

Mort - are you asking if there are a bunch of regular joe blow's betting early into wnbl markets and ignoring popular markets like nba, nfl, cricket, epl, etc?

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Mort  
Two years ago

They first opened on BetCity @ 2.24, then most mainstream bookies opened anywhere between 1.84-1.90. So enough early money to take them to a pick em, and now the best price available is 1.76 @BetCity while the average is 1.64 and the lowest is in the mid 1.50s. So yes forgive me for been curious on such a swift line change

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Mort  
Two years ago

Doesnt take as much money as it does for the mainstream sports to move the line, just takes smart money

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AshT  
Two years ago

Saturday,

Melbourne Boomers - Dandenong Rangers Under 143 @ 1.90


Sunday,

Townsville Fire @ 1.67

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Mort  
Two years ago

I took the over 142.5 tonight

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AshT  
Two years ago

Good luck, Mort! If I don't win I hope you do.

Out to 143.5 now, so obviously good support for the Over. Still happy to be on a couple of under teams.

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AshT  
Two years ago

Added; Dandenong +9.5 @ 2.00 TAB

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Luuuc  
Two years ago

A lot of streaky shooters in this game so hard to predict an over/under for me.
No money on it for me, so hoping for a high scoring game with Carley & Steph on fire.

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Anonymous  
Two years ago

AshT's money could not be safer.

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AshT  
Two years ago

Cambage predictably just six minutes per quarter but Rangers finding it harder work than I was hoping. Hopefully the Derby factor kicks-in for the run home.

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AshT  
Two years ago

NBL Sunday,

Perth Wildcats @ 1.95

Greg Hire out but expected return of Martin is going to greatly help and I feel on eight days rest they will be especially motivated off a couple of losses and in a venue they notoriously struggle. Cairns very good lately and coming off a three game road stretch could easily catch them slightly off the boil.

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Luuuc  
Two years ago

Hope you're right.
The Cats haven't won a regular season game in Cairns since 2015

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Pickem  
Two years ago

Bullets +3.5 & Wildcats ML today.. waiting on a market for the Fire v Lynx

That Bendigo line is getting a little ridiculous.. I marked it -15, could be in the 20s soon after opening at -13.5 ... I know the spirit is all kinds of terrible but I'm not sure this is entirely a spot for Sydney to bring its best .. A lot went into Friday’s effort and they only need to get the 'W’ today

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AshT  
Two years ago

I marked the Bendigo game 15 too, for the same reasons.

TopSport don't seem keen to dive in on this one but if they go up soon it will be approx 1.52 - 2.51 & 4.0. TAB just posted and have it 1.48 - 2.65 & 4.5

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AshT  
Two years ago

"TopSport don't seem keen to dive in on this one"; meaning Fire v Lynx.

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Pickem  
Two years ago

Just gave them a nudge, now it's back.. I think sometimes they just forget to put a market back up if pinnacle have taken one off (they seem to tie a lot of their markets to pinnacle) ..

Anyway, not so sure what to expect with this one now.. had it circled all week thinking Perth would take it easy after a close fought win against Canberra and that Townsville would be playing for second spot, which it is, however I’m not sure the Fire will be all that hopeful of Bendigo rolling the Flames..

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Pickem  
Two years ago

Other thing I just wonder about is Perth's approach having lost on Friday.. sure they’ll want fresh bodies for Wednesday but not sure they’ll want two straight slack performances

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AshT  
Two years ago

Yeah, I think you're right about them forgetting. They were up at the time I bet the game.

IMO, the other thing is Fire won't want sloppy form going into finals, so should be keen to respond with a win. That choice perhaps is basically taken away from Lynx with the penalty of fatigue & injury too severe to risk. Of special note, the W's each played 35mins Friday (which as you suggested they prob planned to win), which looks like a set plan to me. Shenanigans could be interesting if Sydney are 20up at 3QT.

I marked it 1.43/5.5. Current price is certainly getting tight.

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Pickem  
Two years ago

Yeah I pegged it Townsville -7 as I thought Perth would be in total tank mode

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AshT  
Two years ago

Probably end up Fire by a dozen with Pirini playing 25mins and we'll be thinking "how obvious!"

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Pickem  
Two years ago

No play in the end, too much potential fuckery

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AshT  
Two years ago

Wish I could have had the same discipline trying those Rangers last night! Best to just stay out in the long run.

Fire were momentarily out to 1.68 Pinnacle upon the W's appearing in starting five but quickly back into 1.58.

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Pickem  
Two years ago

^ yeah saw that, then I blinked and it was 1.58

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Pickem  
Two years ago

I could be totally wrong and the coach may have set plans but Wouldn't surprise if Perth get a touch of white line fever in this one.. back in the game now and with a shot at a 3-zip over Townsville, Andy Stewart may have a hard time calling off the dogs, so to speak

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AshT  
Two years ago

Brisbane Bullets 2.53 & +4 @ 1.95

Play their sixth of last seven on road. Five days since Melbourne and hopefully will be extra motivated off two losses plus have the squad and general form to get the job done. Hawks have sprung to life lately. Wins in last two but in reality this game is up for grabs. Not sure what I'm really doing playing Bullets moneyline, though, when butchering last quarter leads is something they do so well! Value!

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Pickem  
Two years ago

Like the Bullets today too but waiting on news of Buford's absense to push this line out a little further

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AshT  
Two years ago

He's not listed on LiveStats.

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Pickem  
Two years ago

Yeah he's out today, ankle

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AshT  
Two years ago

Was watching that Bendigo market to the end too, in case twenty somthing came along.

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Pickem  
Two years ago

Looks like Brisbane has decided it's all too hard without Buford

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Pickem  
Two years ago

Yep, weak as piss bullets.. better luck in 2025

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