Luuuc
Last year

Home Cooking - Personal Fouls in the NBL & WNBL

Last season someone here posted some stats for personal fouls differential in home games vs away games for the NBL. I thought I'd do the same for this season (and for the WNBL as well).

It will be a very basic comparison straight off the boxscore totals so there's no allowance for teams purposely fouling to stop the clock at the ends of games.
I'll post the numbers at the end of the round.

So place your bets:
Which team commits the most fouls compared to their opponent? Who commits the fewest?
Which team's foul differential is the most favourable at home vs away? (biggest home cooking factor). Will it be Perth? Which team gets the least extra love at home?

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Anonymous  
Last year

More ref bashing, just what the sport needs.

Reply #721168 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Last year

Yes can we please leave the refs alone.

Reply #721179 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Last year

It's not ref bashing, it's Perth bashing!!

Reply #721186 | Report this post


Luuuc  
Last year

It's not anyone-bashing. It's looking at some numbers and seeing how well they correlate with some of the popular theories posted on here.

So far it's showing that in the WNBL every team gets a better run at home than on the road, which is not surprising, but it doesn't hold true for all NBL teams.

Reply #721187 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Last year

But takes into account ZERO variables.

As you've hinted at in both your posts, home town refs have a bias in particular in Perth. You're using stats to support a theory you already have.

Without any explanation for the 100s of other factors other than the refs look after the home team.

That's the worst kind of research.

Just another ref bash.

Reply #721189 | Report this post


Jack Toft  
Last year

I looked at the stats a season or two ago. Essentially I assumed that a team doesn't really change its playing style on the road or at home. I looked at the average fouls that a team has on the road, or at home and then look at the venues.

I can't find the thread or my spreadsheet, however from memory, the "average" foul count in an NBL game was 18 fouls to the home team and 20 fouls to the away team. However, the New Zealand games had about 2 less fouls (ie 16 to 18) whereas Sydney had 2 more (ie 20 to 22).

All the teams, bar one, had an average foul count of 18 to 20 (+/- 1.5) at home and an away count of 20 to 18 (+/- 1.5), whereas Perth's count was something like 14 to 24 at home and 20 to 18 on the road.

Perth's foul count on the road is typical of an NBL team on the road, but at home, their foul count was statistically different to other NBL teams.

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Luuuc  
Last year

OMG Jack slow down, slow down!! So much ref bashing there!!

Reply #721201 | Report this post


koberulz  
Last year

But takes into account ZERO variables.

As you've hinted at in both your posts, home town refs have a bias in particular in Perth. You're using stats to support a theory you already have.

Without any explanation for the 100s of other factors other than the refs look after the home team.

That's the worst kind of research.

Just another ref bash.
I like how you're complaining that merely listing statistics, the outcome of which you don't even know, is ref-bashing...and saying it's pointless because the refs obviously favour Perth.

Reply #721313 | Report this post


Luuuc  
Last year


Reply #721732 | Report this post


Luuuc  
Last year

Melbourne Boomers have been accused of being too jumpshot-oriented, and these numbers seem to back that up. They draw by far the fewest fouls per game.
They also get the least amount of extra love in home games vs away games.

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Luuuc  
Last year



Reply #721893 | Report this post


Luuuc  
Last year

Adelaide, and especially Cairns & NZ fans need to get louder & put some pressure on the refs by the looks of those numbers. Those 3 teams seem to get a worse deal in home games than away games.

Reply #721894 | Report this post


AD  
Last year

What a crock of shit.
Just more of the same old crap

All of that work just to demonstrate what we already know, and prove nothing.
And of course you have to finish off with the obligatory nonsense that its crowds that make the difference.

And you based it off what, 8 rounds?

Tommy Jervis commits more fouls that anybody. Does that mean the Refs hate him? Or we don't cheer loudly enough for him?
Or could it just mean that he's out form, clumsy, and slow to adapt?

Reply #721906 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Last year

What is wrong with you, AD?

Reply #721914 | Report this post


LV  
Last year

Thanks Luuuuc

Reply #721939 | Report this post


Luuuc  
Last year

Haha, way to fire up, AD. Good onya.

They're just numbers so draw your own conclusions, or don't.
I thought it would be an interesting exercise to see whether the numbers matched up with "what we already know", or whether maybe only you know everything and the rest of us still have some catching up to do.

Despite Tommy sticking his hands where they don't belong on a regular basis, Perth being the equal lowest fouling team overall will have come as no surprise to Whats Happened to the NBA. Though it's not purely on the back of noise of affirmation from 13k at home. Perth enjoy tasty meals all around the country.

Btw you don't think crowds make a difference, AD? You really think refs are immune to being influenced? I mean sure, it's quite possible that the 2 biggest attended teams having the 2 biggest foul difference at home vs away is just a coincidence...

Reply #721941 | Report this post


MACDUB  
Last year

Great stats.

The NBA is averaging 23.6 fouls per game this year so far - which is very high by NBA standards. The NBL is only just above this (23.6 vs. 24.48) when adjusted for 48 minute games.

The NBA averaged 19.9 fouls per game last season - which is only 16.5 in a 40 minute game!





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