To be fair, 50K Jersey numbers is actually quite attainable, but the problem with this is for the Filipinos that can afford it in the Philippines, will they be willing to spend it? For context, for every 10 Filipinos in the Philippines, 4 of these are in the middle class (potential buyers).
These people are the only ones that can spend money on genuine products, aside from the wealthy Filipinos. The thing is, even if they can afford it, I know that they would rather spend it on a Curry jersey or a Lebron jersey. Imagine Kai's jersey cost the same as the NBA's brightest stars.
I will be honest, unless it is an NBA jersey of Kai, if God willing, he gets there, I can easily see a million jersey sales, but an Adelaide jersey? I just don’t think it warrants enough interest in the Philippines to spend on the merchandise, but I think a safe and conservative number for how well Kai’s jersey will sell here, excluding Filipinos outside the Philippines, is probably 10K at least. Anything more is a bonus.
I think Zhou Qi would sell a 100 K jerseys. The Chinese are known to spend like crazy on things that they like. Zhou may not have that many followers outside China, especially when you see his Instagram and Twitter, but the dude has a huge following in China.
The only problem for Zhou would be how well the NBL could make it easy for his fanbase to buy these jerseys. I'm not sure how they can buy it with all the internet censorship and all.
There is no issues with the Zhou replicas for me, I think even with the replicas, I still think a 100K jerseys will be sold.
Replica manufacturers in China would make a lot sales though with the Kai Jerseys.