Anonymous
Earlier this year

Melbourne United can still do it

Coach Vickerman said they need to win 4 out of their last 5 to make it. The run home:

1) v Perth
2) @ Brisbane
3) v Illawarra
4) v Taipans
5) "@" SEM

So 4 of the 5 games are in Melbourne. Illawarra is a free win right now. So let's say they need 3 out of 4. I could see them doing it. SEM are flat right now. So let's say 2 out of 3 of the other games.

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Jack Toft  
Earlier this year

Yeah, they could, but the question is "should"?

Reply #789036 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Earlier this year

The cattle is over hyped and not that good or in Pledger and Barlow is beyond the use by date though Barlow would still be a good 10/11 man. So if the hype comes true they will get there but I myself think they can't.

Perth still has the best model, get good Australian core with good imports around them, Sydney and Brisbane have done it reasonably well and it looks like paying off. Melbourne seem to get imports first.

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Anonymous  
Earlier this year

I think they'll beat Illawarra, SEM and possibly Brisbane. They won’t beat Perth. The Cairns game could be the key one. Their run home is actually pretty favourable having so many home games. I’d rather see the Breakers get the 4th spot, but I actually think Brisbane will get it.

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Anonymous  
Earlier this year

Melbourne could lose all those games, at least they won't get the wooden spoon.

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Perthworld’s little bro  
Earlier this year

put a fork in em

Reply #789045 | Report this post


Simon Cowell  
Earlier this year

That's a no from me.

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Anonymous  
Earlier this year

Next 2 games:

1) Lose to Perth and lose to Brisbane - Season is over.
2) Beat Perth and lose to Brisbane - Season is over, albeit a 'mathematical' chance.
3) Lose to Perth and beat Brisbane - Season alive with realistic chance of winning last 3.
4) Beat Perth and beat Brisbane - Lock in finals. Team will be full of confidence.

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Mystro  
Earlier this year

They're done, their body language is terrible when they aren’t just cruising to victory.

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Tribe  
Earlier this year

Fair to say scenario 1 is the overwhelming favourite ^

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Anonymous  
Earlier this year

They aren't beating Perth or cairns. They’re flat they look depressed.

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Anonymous  
Earlier this year

They'll lose to Perth and Brisbane by 20. Season over. They’ll be lucky to win 2 more games. Vu Kerman is kidding himself

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Anonymous  
Earlier this year

Lv in incognito mode!!

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MACDUB  
Earlier this year

I don't think SEM would be "flat" if they were playing MU for the last game of the year and had a chance to keep them out of the playoffs; and if they couldn't get up for that game then there's some serious issues.

It'd come down to winning all 3 against SEM, Brisbane and Cairns (given the surety in the Ill and Perth games) and I just don't think that's going to happen; too inconsistent for my liking.

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Anonymous  
Earlier this year

Sem have guys still hungry to prove themselves. Not flat at all.

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Anonymous  
Earlier this year

Hawks by 30

Reply #789081 | Report this post


Perthworld  
Earlier this year

Reply #789089 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Earlier this year

You can dooooooo ittttttttt

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Anonymous  
Earlier this year

United thrashed Perth in Perth not that long ago. They definitely have a chance on Wednesday

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LV  
Earlier this year

United destroyed Perth in Perth a month ago.

Form is fickle. Who knows?

The old cliche is relevant here. "One game at a time". Beat Perth and suddenly everything looks very different.

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Anonymous  
Earlier this year

United destroyed Perth in Perth a month ago.

Evidently that was United and LVs grand final.

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Anonymous  
Earlier this year

Not a united fan, but got a feeling they'll beat perth tonight

Reply #789105 | Report this post


LV  
Earlier this year

I've got a gut feeling they won't win tonight, but maybe tomorrow night...

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LV  
Earlier this year

There's so many ways this could go, with Brisbane, United and Cairns all still to play each other.

But, essentially if United loses either of the next two, it becomes extremely difficult. They'd need to win their last three, and hope other results go their way.

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AngusH  
Earlier this year

United have enough offensive talent on paper to do it, but at the game on Sunday the chemistry issues were pretty apparent from where I was seeing, on the court and on the sidelines. Nothing builds chemistry quite like winning so a big win tomorrow night and possibly they turn things around, but I think a loss in Perth and these guys are done, regardless of what the math says.

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Anonymous  
Earlier this year

Their last 3 games were all important games, with plenty of time to prepare and lots of empty talk beforehand. They lost by 14, 22 and 18... See a pattern there? They are rubbish and done for the season.

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Reality  
Earlier this year

United are done and so is Vickerman

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WookieE  
Earlier this year

Depends which version of them turns up... They're certainly capable, but as said above, the body language is pretty awful at times...

On a related note, what are the contract situations like for the players? Assume the imports are all on 1yr deals with options at the most? Anyone decent playing for a job next season?

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Anonymous  
Earlier this year

Prather is under contract, lmao.

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Reality  
Earlier this year

Prather the highest paid towel waver in NBL history!

Reply #789121 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Earlier this year

Yes at least last time he was towel waving 2/3 season he helped them to championship.

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Anonymous  
Earlier this year

NBLfacts
@nblfacts
·
38m
The
@BrisbaneBullets
are the first team since the Kings in 1996 - and the first Bullets team ever - to play five straight games shooting above 52% from the field.

vs Wildcats 55.88%
at Breakers 54.93%
vs Hawks 56.94%
vs Phoenix 54.05%
at 36ers 52.78%

Brisbane looks the goods for 4th at this point.

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Thunder Jam  
Earlier this year

They are done!
No team camaraderie.Just money grabbers.

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Anonymous  
Earlier this year

Amount of quarters 'won' in last 3 games played:

10 -Kings
8 -Wildcats
8 -Breakers
7 -Bullets
5 -Taipans
4 -36ers
4 -Phoenix
3 -Hawks
1 -United***

(Melbourne have not outscored their opponent in any of their last ten quarters for the first time in franchise history)

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Anonymous  
Earlier this year

^Even the hawks have won 3 shiiiiiiiiiiiiiiitt

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Anonymous  
Earlier this year

Maybe they can now. Beat Brisbane and there in you would think.

Reply #789434 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Earlier this year

I told you they could still do it

Reply #789475 | Report this post


Perthworld  
Earlier this year

So did I.

Reply #789487 | Report this post


Anonymous  
Earlier this year

The equation for United is this: win both remaining games, and they're in

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Anonymous  
Earlier this year

One game away

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Luuuc  
Earlier this year

The equation for United is this: win both remaining games, and they're in

Not 100% though
If NZ has a massive win and Melbourne has only a narrow win then NZ gets 4th
eg. if NZ wins 100-75 and Melbourne wins 95-90 then NZ gets 4th spot.

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Perthworld  
Earlier this year

That example would give MEL +64 and NZB +62? Add another 3pts to NZB's score and they go through.

What happens if points differential between the two teams is tied? Head to head count-back?

United playing last and knowing the permutations is a huge advantage. What a luxurious run home they have this round - even though their game on Sunday is away. Amazing.

Reply #792703 | Report this post


koberulz  
Earlier this year

Is it just about margin, though, or is it actually percentage? If the latter, the same margin can be worth a different amount, ie a 10-5 win is 200% but a 90-85 win is only 106%.

Which makes the complaints about the Illawarra game on NZ's behalf odd, because a 65-52 win got them 125% but a 99-86 win would only have got them 1.15%, so the longer the game went the more they would have had to increase the margin for the same percentage benefit.

Similarly, if it's overall margin a win increases it, no matter the margin. If it's percentage, a win by less than your average winning margin will actually decrease it.

For example Sydney's percentage is 106.44, with their points averages being 94 for and 89 against. If they beat Illawarra 91-90, their percentage drops to 106.25.

Melbourne, NZ and Brisbane are all so close to 100% there's not that much wiggle room for percentage-decreasing wins, but it can happen.

In Luuuc's example, the 100-75 win would give NZ a percentage of 102.52, while a 95-90 Melbourne win leaves them on a percentage of 102.50, and NZ goes through.

However, quite a few people are only quoting margins on Twitter, and if that is indeed the tiebreaker a) it unfairly punishes slower-paced teams and b) all this math becomes irrelevant.

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Perthworld  
Earlier this year

My bad, I get the example now, it surely would be based on points percentage not margin you would think as historically it was always the latter before the change to mini-league head-to-head.

Nevertheless NBL are doing a poor job of communicating the scenarios at play.

The following was in the United-Taipans match report to add to the confusion:

The only way Melbourne can win on Sunday and still miss the finals is if the Breakers beat the Phoenix on Friday night in Christchurch by 23 more points than United wins by.

"We are close, about 20 points up [on percentage] but I can certainly see New Zealand putting a possible margin like that up if they play the way they have been playing lately," Melbourne coach Dean Vickerman said.


So the nbl.com.au author is wrong yet at the same time quotes Vickerman who correctly understands the margin isn't fixed since it is percentage based. Classic NBL.

Reply #792707 | Report this post


Perthworld  
Earlier this year

Although looking back at the match report and the author is going off of pure points margin as 23pts is the magic number which equates to MEL +64 and NZB +65 so they may be right?

Also adding "on percentage" in brackets to Vickerman's quote adds even more confusion as coach didn't verbalise the exact method of calculation when stating "about 20 points up" yet the author has used incorrect terminology in trying to clarify what was being referenced. Bizarre. NBL never change.

Reply #792709 | Report this post


LV  
Earlier this year

Door is open for a Bradbury title.

Bogut might be more banged up than we realise.

Martin has a semi major injury at least every other year. Maybe this year he has a second.

Reply #792712 | Report this post




 

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