NBL has always been built on teams losing insane amounts of money in the context of a league that deals in much smaller $$$ figures than other leagues and sports in the landscape.
That existed pre-LK and exists now.
These days there's at least 1) broadcast money (!!), 2) more sponsorship and league revenue than ever and presumably on a cpi basis too, and 3) crowds than ever. Plus there’s more capital investment in clubs than ever, so in a way clubs aren’t in such a bad position and there’s much less risk of a club going under.
With that been said, the league is facing $ competition from other leagues more than ever with the rise of Asia and with Australia wanting to be a genuine second league to NBA with about 6-8 European leagues offering 5-6 times the wages for talent.
I want to see NBL continue the growth trajectory and in a sense expansion for 2 clubs in ~4 years wouldn’t be too much. An extra $3.5mil or so on the payroll of players wouldn’t hurt and may see more money allocated to luring guys like JLA, Kay, Brandt, Thonmaker to the NBL.
As chatted about in another thread - that probably means sticking to the big markets. Perthworld mentioned the A-League is a bit of a litmus test for that and I agree. I would say however, A-League is in a downward trajectory and requires more than ~10k fans to be deemed a success.
I do fear for the Hawks though, and to a lesser extent Cairns. Hawks simply don’t look well supported enough stadium and crowd wise, and probably sponsor wise as it is. Cairns aren’t struggling but would have a lower ceiling of potential and could be simply overstretched if the costs, in particular salaries keep growing. Nobody wants a perpetual budget Cairns side finishing low and left behind.
I’d be looking at NZ for a second side because I feel like it’s a big market in a sense and wouldn’t necessarily be halving the base, if anything it could make NZers more interested over their local league because they feel more properly part of the league instead of as a token side.
Question marks on infrastructure in a place like Wellington though.
Sydney is a weird one because Qudos is so damn annoying and hard for a lot of people to get to. Shame they destroyed the Ent Centre, imagine the corporates a revitalised Kings side would have had.
What potential is there for a Penrith or Paramatta side? Problem is zero infrastructure. A second Sydney team might be more Wanderers than Giants IMO.
Do you commit the absolute cardinal sin and split the Hawks between Illawarra and Sydney? Maybe with a touch of Newcastle. Could a shift to NSW Hawks completely ruin the team or save them from a rocky future?
What capacity is there for a third Melbourne team which splits its time between an imaginary Geelong and Melbourne representing North West?
In a sense they’re better options over Darwin, Canberra, Gold Coast.
If we had to choose a small town team to join, I’d say Canberra once the Gov finally gets on board.
Just don’t add a further small team, IMO.